Using Crude Calculatoins, Jodie makes the Final 3 no Matter What Scenario, and will likely win the Competition.



Last Week:
We pretend that each has roughly 1000 votes.

Niahm = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jessie = 1000 Votes
Sam = 1000 Votes
Rachel = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jodie = 1000 votes
Ashley = 1000 votes (Eliminated)

This Week:
Most of Ashley votes will go to Jodie.

Niahm = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jessie = 1000 Votes
Sam = 1000 Votes
Rachel = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jodie = 1000 votes + 1000 votes = 2000 votes

Niahm and Rachel in singoff


Following Week
If
1. Niahm is eliminated votes will go to Jessie/Sam/Rachel (N. Ireland vote and Teen Power vote) with Sam getting the least amount since she is friends with Niahm while Jessie, Rachel and Jodie are friends in the house.

Jessie = 1000 Votes + 330 votes = 1330
Sam = 1000 Votes + 330 = 1330 (Low)
Rachel = 1000 Votes + 330 = 1330 (Low)
Jodie = 2000 votes

Rachel and Sam in Singoff

If 2. Rachel is eliminated votes will go to Niahm and Jodie (N. Ireland vote and Oldie vote)

Jessie = 1000 votes
Sam = 1000 votes
Niahm = 1000 votes + 500 votes = 1500 votes
Jodie = 2000 votes + 500 votes = 2500 votes

Sam and Jessie in Singoff

Following Following Week
For Simplicity Sam is saved under either Scenario by ALW

1. If Rachel is eliminated from Rachel/Sam, her 1330 votes go to 3/4 Jodie and 1/4 Jessie since they are friends in the house
Jessie = 1330 + 330 = 1660
Sam = 1330 (Low)
Jodie = 2000 votes + 1000 votes = 3000 votes

Winner Jodie

1. If Jessie is eliminated from Jessie/Sam, her 1000 votes are split 3 ways because of Teen power
Sam = 1000 votes + 330 votes = 1330 votes
Niahm = 1500 votes + 330 votes = 1830 votes
Jodie = 2500 votes + 330 votes = 2830 votes

Winner Jodie, possibly Niahm

You forgot to include the massive Irish vote in the UK which will undoubtedly go to the most talented Irish girl.

Jessie maybe?

I've already accounted for that in the splliting of votes.

The only way I can see Jodie not win is if in the Final 3, all the voters decided to suddenly abandon one of the singers and pool together to combine votes to beat Jodie.

The other scenario would be for ALW and the Panel to go really hard at Jodie (worse than with Ashley) to try to make her lose confidence and perform poorly in the next couple shows.

We shall see i guess.

Interesting crude calculations. I do think it will depend more on the performances in the show from now on. They could all do well given the right songs to sing.
Personally I like Jodie and Rachel to get the part.

Absolutely, and don`t forget Jessie is due a slow song this week which she excels at, and Jodie will probably get a choreographed one after ALW`s comments (may or may not work).

[quote=PenguinBear;23659253]Using Crude Calculatoins, Jodie makes the Final 3 no Matter What Scenario, and will likely win the Competition.


[b]1. If Rachel is eliminated from Rachel/Sam, her 1330 votes go to 3/4 Jodie and 1/4 Jessie since they are friends in the house[/b]

/QUOTE]

I just love this voting method, forget about who has talent and would be good as Nancy

Sarah and Sam were friends, so lets vote Sam now Sarah has gone. Jodie and Ashley friends, lets vote Jodie because Ashley is supporting her.

But you can't start from the assumption that each girl had a similar number of votes.

They could be miles apart and then what you add on will not have the same impact.

Also, you are assuming that all voters are loyal to one girl every week, despite performance etc. This does vary (in our house anyway!)

Agree. Not everybody who voted for say, Ashley, will now vote for somebody else. They may just not vote anymore and i would imagine that this is the majority of people

Deleted
Last edited by Baralai17 : 13-05-2008 at 09:44

True. I'm a Jessie fan and if she's out next week, I won't bother watching after that

I think you've got to take into account if someone does a very good or very weak performance that will effect the votes and when a contestants go out you can't really assume they'll go to there friend in the house.

Does anyone know what the actual spread of voting is, and how many votes those that aren't in the bottom two are getting?

I do wonder why these figures aren't published what with required transparency in phone voting and all that.

If my favourite leaves then i will just vote for my next favourite, not who my favourite was friends with

i wouldnt say there was a possibility of niamh winning

I thought this was an audition show based on talent? Not a playground style "who's friends with who" deal where we all transfer our votes based on loyalty and little else.

I feel a bit about IDA like I do about going to a restaurant: if the service is good I'll tip (vote), if it's not, I won't.
This is totally unlike the Maria and Joseph series' when I knew who I wanted early on and voted to keep them in the show.

So in that sense, I feel quite objective when I watch these women. I have different opinions each week but no clear favourite - and I'm not voting for anyone who isn't worth it. One thing is for sure, I won't be voting for anyone based on their nationality, who they were friends with or whether I feel sorry for them.

Although some people will probably vote due to loyalty rather than talent or who they think is right for the role, but I think a lot of people will be looking at the performances and who they thought was best, so I don't think it is really possible to calculate the results (no matter how crudely) unless you have seen all the performances.

Shall we email the BBC and ask for a vote breakdown?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/foi/

foi@bbc.co.uk

It will be what it will be...........just watch and enjoy

I'm not sure I agree with your voting patterns, but think Jodie is a shoe-in for the final anyway. She and Ashley represented the 'one of us' demographic, but Ashley' s performances were patchy, whereas Jodie has been very consistent. I didn't really rate her at first (thought of her as too cabaret, Blackpool, etc.) but changed my mind when she did 'Send in the Clowns'. That is a really difficult, mature song to get right as it has to be acted as well as sung and she suddenly looked like a Sondheim cast member rather than Jane McDonald.

Jodie now represents this demographic on her own, whereas there is an Irish group who could split the vote and a teeny group who could go the same way.

I don't think DS posters are representative of the vast majority of IDA viewers, who don't over-analyse and think "Well, if she's X's friend, I'll vote for her now X is gone". It's purely down to - did they sing well? And if their favourite goes, can they be bothered to vote for someone else?!

I'm not sure it works out quite like that. Most people seem to like two or three of the girls and haven't made up their mind completely yet. Apart from Niamh and Rachel who aren't that popular I think any of the other 3 who perform the best in the fnal could win it

How long did it take you to come up with that???

Unless something drastic happens (like jessie and sam in the sing off) i reckon the final 3 will be jessie sam and jodie... with jessie and jodie becoming the final 2

As these are Crude Calculations, I didn't spend much time on this. Maybe like 10 minutes.

It is hard to do any exact Calculations since the BBC doesn't release the exact vote totals. So we just have to guess that each has roughly 1000 votes with Niahm and Rachel at the low end of that.

If we had the exact votes I would guess that Jodie would actually be #1 since I can't see Sam being #1. So that would only further what the Crude Calclations are sayng.

I do feel that alot more of the Ashley votes will go to Jodie because of how ALW treated Ashley and how they want to get back at ALW by voting for the underdog, friend and chosen one of Ashley.

With all respect, impressive as your calculations appear, they do seem to be based on some very questionable assumptions. Your guess that the votes between the remaining girls are so evenly divided is only a guess, and a fairly unlikely one at that, though obviously we do know that Niamh had less than any of the other remaining girls, and it's not unreasonable to suspect that Rachel, as the only other girl to have been in the bottom 2, could have been the lowest of the other four girls this time too.

We have no idea how Jodie, Jessie and Sam's votes compare. You guess that Jodie is getting the most votes, but there seems to be nothing to base this on. The DS poll admittedly shows her as favourite, but there are no grounds to suppose that this is representative.

Also, I don't think Ashley's votes will necessarily go the way you think. Many people will not vote loyally for one girl, but will vote for what they see as the best performance on the night. Those who did vote for Ashley particularly may not get into all the theories that buzz around on here; some may not go on internet forums at all, and they may not even know who is who's friend (they don't really tell you this on the show). It's even possible that Ashley has been attracting a "braveheart" vote - how likely are they to transfer their votes to the only English girl left in the contest?

Jodie's great - but she's wrong for the part of Nancy

Ashley has said that she wants Jodie to win. And we also know that Ashley fans have a reason to stick it to ALW. So I do think more votes than normal will go to Jodie to keep the flame that Ashley has lit alive.

I actually did this to see what the chances of my favorites (Jessie and Niahm) were, but they ended up favoring Jodie (who along with Rachel I don't want to see winning)

Fortuantely, my understanding is this year once it gets down to the Final 3, it seems ALW still can save one girl to get to the final 2. So in the final vote Jodie should lose her advantage. (But Jodie is almost a certainty for the final 3)