Unfortunately every assumption you made in the calculation had no foundation. There's no reason to assume votes would go to people who liked other people in the house, or that they all start with the same vote or that you can predict whose vote will go where. On style Jodie might gain Ashley's support, Jessie Niamh's and Sam Rachel's but it will be far more complicated than that.

Jodie's survival depends on how many people there are in the final - two or three. If its two she has to top the SF vote or ALW will dump her out. If its three she will need to be in the top 2. She's also got to avoid the bottom two until then. We don't know who is where in the public vote . Though its reasonable to assume Jodie, Jessie and Sam are the top 3 its far from clear who is first or second or why.

We were 100% correct on last weeks outcome of Jodie being saved and Rachel/Niamh in the singoff.

Bottom round has been update to reflect the fact that it appears that ALW can save one of the final 3 (last week we stopped at the bottom 3 and went with the popular vote at that point)


Last Week:
We pretend that each has roughly 1000 votes.

Niahm = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jessie = 1000 Votes
Sam = 1000 Votes
Rachel = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jodie = 1000 votes
Ashley = 1000 votes (Eliminated)

This Week:
Most of Ashley votes will go to Jodie.

Niahm = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jessie = 1000 Votes
Sam = 1000 Votes
Rachel = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jodie = 1000 votes + 1000 votes = 2000 votes

Niahm and Rachel in singoff


Following Week
If
1. Niahm is eliminated votes will go to Jessie/Sam/Rachel (N. Ireland vote and Teen Power vote) with Sam getting the least amount since she is friends with Niahm while Jessie, Rachel and Jodie are friends in the house.

Jessie = 1000 Votes + 330 votes = 1330
Sam = 1000 Votes + 330 = 1330 (Low)
Rachel = 1000 Votes + 330 = 1330 (Low)
Jodie = 2000 votes

Rachel and Sam in Singoff

Following Following Week


1. If Rachel is eliminated from Rachel/Sam, her 1330 votes go to 3/4 Jodie and 1/4 Jessie since they are friends in the house
Jessie = 1330 + 330 = 1660
Sam = 1330 (Low)
Jodie = 2000 votes + 1000 votes = 3000 votes

Depending on how they do the final 3
Jessie and Sam are in the Singoff.

Final Two

1. If Sam is saved, Jessie 1330 votes will go 50/50 because of Teen Power and Jodie-Jessie Friendship Power

Sam = 1330(Low) + 665 = 1995 votes
Jodie = 3000 + 665 = 3665 votes

Winner Jodie

2. If Jessie is saved, Sam's 1330 votes will go to Jessie becasue of Teen Power
Jessie = 1660 + 1330 = 2990
Jodie = 3000 = Jodie

Jessie or Jodie could be the winner with a slight edge for Jodie.

Anyone could have predicted Rachel and Niamh in the bottom 2. It tells us nothing about how the other three girls are doing, nor even about just how far behind Rachel is. Your assumptions remain as questionable as ever, I'm afraid.

The Crude Calculations were right again. Sam Rachel in the singoff with Rachel leaving.

Depending on how they do the final 3. If they just pick a winner out of the final 3 (Jodie wins) or if they eliminate one and revote for the final two makes a difference.

Jodie is guaranteed to win unless they have an elimination where the viewers eliminate Sam. Then in a head to head between Jodie and Jessie there is a decent chance that Jessie could win.


Last Week:
We pretend that each has roughly 1000 votes.

Niahm = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jessie = 1000 Votes
Sam = 1000 Votes
Rachel = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jodie = 1000 votes
Ashley = 1000 votes (Eliminated)

This Week:
Most of Ashley votes will go to Jodie.

Niahm = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jessie = 1000 Votes
Sam = 1000 Votes
Rachel = 1000 Votes (Low)
Jodie = 1000 votes + 1000 votes = 2000 votes

Niahm and Rachel in singoff


Following Week
If
1. Niahm is eliminated votes will go to Jessie/Sam/Rachel (N. Ireland vote and Teen Power vote) with Sam getting the least amount since she is friends with Niahm while Jessie, Rachel and Jodie are friends in the house.

Jessie = 1000 Votes + 330 votes = 1330
Sam = 1000 Votes + 330 = 1330 (Low)
Rachel = 1000 Votes + 330 = 1330 (Low)
Jodie = 2000 votes

Rachel and Sam in Singoff

Following Following Week


1. If Rachel is eliminated from Rachel/Sam, her 1330 votes go to 3/4 Jodie and 1/4 Jessie since they are friends in the house
Jessie = 1330 + 330 = 1660
Sam = 1330 (Low)
Jodie = 2000 votes + 1000 votes = 3000 votes

Depending on how they do the final 3
Jessie and Sam are in the Singoff.

Final Two

1. If Sam is saved, Jessie 1330 votes will go 50/50 because of Teen Power and Jodie-Jessie Friendship Power

Sam = 1330(Low) + 665 = 1995 votes
Jodie = 3000 + 665 = 3665 votes

Winner Jodie

2. If Jessie is saved, Sam's 1330 votes will go to Jessie becasue of Teen Power
Jessie = 1660 + 1330 = 2990
Jodie = 3000 = Jodie

Jessie or Jodie could be the winner with a slight edge for Jodie.

Well the Crude Calculations were completely correct. I didn't think they would be this accurate.