It looks to me like the 3 contenders are Mikey, Rachell and Darnell, with Rachel best positioned to win. The rest are out of it.

Using my favourite analytical tool , the historic odds - implied probability graph at bestbetting, ...

Kat's chances have been going steadily down since a peak on July 28th and are now not much better than Lisa's (whose have risen).

Rex's chances have fallen mightily since the start of August and are now down among the also rans.

Rachel's chances have gone pretty steadily up, and imo it's unlikely that anything will put them into reverse.

Mikey's have also climbed, but peaked on the 9th, and I think they will fall further once he's no long HoH. He can be very bitchy and unpleasant, which may well become more evident to viewers. Darnell may be too complex a character, and too much of a gameplayer for enough viewers to warm to.

I also think Mikey and Darnell are much more likely than Rachel to accumulate further negatives, while Rachel will be able to show more of her personality now that there are so few HM.

So, imo, Rachel has the best chance of taking the prize.

well dont discount darnell just yet he is an up and down guy and has shown that all the way through and in the betting odds.

but looking at the amount of votes rachel got i aint so sure she would win now

Whilst I agree with you about Rachel being the likely winner, I disagree with you about Mikey being bitchy and unpleasant. Out of all three, he has taken more risks, been more entertaining, and also says to faces what he thinks. Mikey hasn't said anything behind people's backs that he hasn't been afraid to say to their faces. So I don't see that as being bitchy.

However, the negatives that I do see going against Mikey are people unlikely to support him because they think he's getting the sympathy vote. He's in a no win situation because people will use his disability against him.

I think it could go either way for Darnell and Mikey. Many found his stint at HOH annoying, I found it highly amusing. He has grown on me a lot lately.

Darnell needs to chill out a bit. He still has a huge following, which is good because he's a really complex character. He NEEDS to take a step back and just enjoy his time in there and he will go far.

Rachel won't change. She may become more of a character now she has chance to speak, but I don't think she will do anything to annoy the viewing public (apart from being 'boring' and 'fake' ) She's certainly a contender for the win, but we really don't know yet.

Either one of those would do me, and you can throw Mo and Kat in there too. At least it's not the one horse race from the beginning like another series I could mention.

It will be a close call between Rachel and Darnell, providing neither face the chop.

Great analysis Veri, and I agree.

-Kat has peaked and crashed.
-Mo is too volatile, without the lucidity to talk his way out of it + he's been smeared as "Greedy Mo".
-Rex; totally blown it - is regarded as a bully. Nicole has also sealed his fate.
-Lisa - too isolated and whacky, though will do better than expected I think.
Sara - Endemol designated "slag" and manipulator.

It's all down to Mikey, Darnell and Rachel.... though I think Darnell could pip the other two... if he behaves.

no , kat and mikey are most likely to win.

I think Darnell has the best chance after Rachel, with Mikey 3rd.

But the three of them are pretty close at the moment, with Mikey actually ahead, so it's hard to say anything very definite.

Re the eviction vote, I don't think any of the other contenders would have done much better than Rachel. Stu isn't the sort of HM who'd get a big percentage of the vote to evict. His worst behaviour is now a long way back.

But I agree that Rachel might well not win if the vote happened now. I think the others will tend to accumulate negatives while Rachel's relative popularity grows.

Rachel has absolutely NO CHANCE - I like the girl but she is not going to win. She got 41% of the votes yesterday against a nobody like Stuart, so how is she gonna get enough votes to win? She will def make the final though.

It's gonna be between Darnell, Mikey and Kat - what's been good about this series is that there hasn't been a clear winner throughout, I really can't decide who will win but I'm certain they will all be in the final three.

Actually it's his eating habits that are the biggest criticism that I've heard being held against him. I know several people who watch the show who love his frankness but, can't stand watching him eat. They don't care that he's blind and feel he's using his blindness for an excuse for awful table manners. Also the awful blind-dog joke hurt him badly. Rather like Darnell, I really believe that Mikey is now being judged on his behaviour in the house and not his disability.

Just out of interest does anyone on the forum know any blind people, and if so do they eat as badly as Mikey?

Because it's vote to win on the final, whereas evictions are vote to evict? Rex would go in an eviction, he'd do well at the final, same with Kat and Mikey and Darnell.

Fair point, but she is still not gonna get enough votes to win, not even to be in the final three. Remember I told you!

Ok; I'm interested in why you think Kat's still in there.

I don't want to be too much of a "chartist", but I think the bestbetting historic odds implied probability graph that I mentioned paints a very suggestive picture.

Kat's probability has fallen pretty steadily since near the end of July, but it's also fallen, despite a couple of swings back up, since her highest peak near the end of June.

She always seemed to me like a HM who would peak too soon, and I don't think she has anything that can bring her back up before the end.

The rise and rise of Lisa cannot be underestimated!! I'm determined that she will WIN!

We'll see.

That's the point, Stuart wasn't a nobody - he was the last remaining bit of male totty in the house and given historical eviction patterns, Rachel did extraordinarily well to stay in at all, let alone with an 18% difference. I think out of all the HM's left the only others who could have beaten Stu would be Darnell, and possibly Kat or Mikey.


Kat has lost it, she just irritates people across the board now. In a shorter series she could have had it in the bag. Rachel will definitely be top female.

While I agree that it matters greatly that the vote in the final is to-win, when only two HMs are up in a to-evict vote, that's very like two being up in a to-stay vote, because if someone wants to save one of the HMs, it's completely clear how to vote. Just vote to evict the other one.

There is a psychological difference, but I think most voters who want to save a HM can get past that and vote "tactically" in so simple a case.

So perhaps the eviction vote tells us that Rachel's popularity isn't overwhelming; but I don't think anyone else's is yet either.

I want Rachel to win, but think Darnell will get it. On final night when most people bother to vote, they're going to go for the guy who on the surface at least is more "entertaining" and is well... a guy and who is a little bit different and who needs validation.

I want to encourage people to look at the graph, 'cause it's fun. Go here:

http://odds.bestbetting.com/specials...other-9/winner

Then click on "historic odds" then on "implied probability".

You can select which HMs to include, the time period to show ("auto" shows the most), and which numbers to use (best, median, particular bookmaker's).

Lisa's curve goes up towards meeting Kat's coming down.

Ii think she will be default.

Sara: Most people may be put off by her "flirting"

Lisa: Not enough votes to win.

Kat: Possibly, but she is annoying.

Rex: He has lost support from a mojority of FM, and I like to think that these votes do count to some extent.

Nicole: NO CHANCE!

Mo: Mmo seems to be in a minority.


Who would you predicted to be in the final 3?

I wouldn't discount Rex if he gets to the final. He will pick up quite alot of the "anti" votes this year in the same way jason did in BB5. Final two imho will be Rex and Racheal. Mikey not going to win. Darnell could do depending on whether he plays a blinder in his last couple of weeks. Darnell is a love him one minute detest him the next type of hm so if he manages to string together two weeks of loving him he could do it. he certainly has more chance than mikey.

Think it will be between..

Darnell and Mikey
Rachel 3rd.

I would like it to be

Darnell
Mikey
Mo

Mikey's said things about Rachel behind her back, for example, that I don't think he's ever said to her, and is unlikely ever to say to her. He's also said things about Sara behind her back, and I think he has been both bitchy and unpleasant in the recent late night chats he's been part of since Rachel was nominated for eviction.

In any case, I think bitchy is bitchy even if it's also said to the person's face. (It's bitchy, but not two-faced.)

However, the HMs Mikey's been dissing recently (Rex, Nicole, Sara) are probably ones that have a lot of people agreeing with him. The time when he was complaining about the "wrong" HMs (such as Rachel) is quite a ways back by now and won't do any further damage.

I'm inclined to agree that he's taken more risks and has been more entertaining, but it may have been in ways BB fans appreciate that don't translate into votes to win.


I think the wins for Nadia and Pete show the public doesn't vote that way, but you could be right, and he doesn't seem to have the same sort of appeal Nadia or Pete did.

One thing we seem to be missing this year is a HM with a big, obvious "journey".

Rachel would come to regret it if she won, ok the money would be good, but she has no future after the show.

The ridicule Cameron faced is nothing to her being crowned the most boring winner in BB history. Some of the papers are already saying this show is close to BB4 as the lowest viewing figures.

BB 4 didn't have the lowest figures, though. BB 6 was slightly lower, on average, and BB 8 was a lot lower.

BB 9's numbers are languishing lower even that 8's.

BB 4 had a very similar audience size (on average) to BBs 1, 2, 6, and 7.

The insidebigbrother site has a lot of information on BB viewing figures.