It always annoys me when we as viewers can see that the older ones with limited dancing experience have worked realy hard to learn their routine and then come out and perform only to get roundly slated for their efforts by the panel (especially Craig and Arlene) whereas a stage school graduate with considerable experience comes out and can do no wrong.
You can't really compare the likes of David Dickinson, Dennis Taylor, Esther Rantzen, Jimmy Tarbuck or Willie Thorne to the nubile young things. It goes without saying that the younger ones are fitter, more supple, are more likely to have done some dancing, so of course they are going to be able to burn the floor in comparison to an older complete novice. Lesley G was the notable exception to the "older" camp as she was very very good - but her musicality definitely helped her (as it did with Aled in series 2)
In the early weeks the panel should be more encouraging to the newbies and possibly handicap the more experienced ones to even up the playing field.
That said - looking at the field this year, I have to agree that John is probably the hot favourite to go first, followed by Phil Daniels. It depends on how good his waltz is.... remember Willie was well up the leader board with his