As usual there are several distinct possibilities in the male section for an early departure - yes, Don Warrington, John Sergeant, Phil Daniels and Andrew 'stiff as a board' Castle, I'm looking at you - but the women are much harder to predict. Cherie is the most mature but I'm betting her ballet background, good fitness and artistry might see her through the early rounds. Will an ex-Eastender be first for the chop?

I'd rather none of them!
errrrm............but I like them all

It'll all depend on how the judges rank them, won't it? Which will depend on how they dance, to a certain extent.

I think whoever is bottom of the leaderboard will be spared and the 2nd and 3rd from the bottom will be up for elimination, or it'll be the bottom 2. This has been the pattern in all 5 series; in the first week the voting closely follows the leaderboard, which makes sense as people don't really know the personalities yet and seem happy to be guided by the judges to begin with.

Mmm .. wish I had your faith in the judges. But I'm not sure they do chose strictly on the basis of that week's dance, especially in the dance off. Last year, many thought Stephanie Beacham, for eg danced the opening number much better than Laetitia Dean but the judges plainly made a choice for the one who had the longer term appeal (and was doing the tour!)

My guess (not prediction) is Heather purely because she's with a new pro not known here and may not get the votes. All the others I can see doing ok.

I don't agree that Don Warrington is a good prediction for an early departure at all. I think he could be quite good!

As for the women, if it was based purely on popularity (as we haven't seen them dance) my money would be on Heather Small as she is with a new pro and people have fave pros as well as celebs.

Sure, but if Heather Small and Cherie Lunghi are first and second on the leaderboard, it's unlikely that they will fall into the elimination zone even if no-one votes for them. So all the other 6 who have (in theory) larger fanbases will be at risk.

I'm not convinced the fanbase thing works for female celebs though. Carol Vorderman was pretty popular, as was Monica Seles on DWTS.

I still maintain that the people most at risk in the first week are the people who don't get good scores, not the people who aren't as famous/pretty as their fellow contestants. I do agree with you - the people who get low scores aren't neccessarily the worst dancers, so I suppose one could say that a female celeb the judges don't care for either way will be the one to leave, as the ones they want to leave will probably end up getting the sympathy vote, and the ones they want to stay will get marked to reflect this.

Heather and Cheri unless they are at the top with the judges

I think Jodie- she looks stiff st times

the tiny bit of Heather dancing in the preview show looked v promising, but I think her partner is offputting somehow....

I think one of the younger ones, like Jodie or Christine may well surprise us by turning out to be unco-ordinated and get the chop first!

I agree - i think if i hadn't seen that, i would have picked her but i think she looked OK.

I think Jessie may be in trouble

I actually do put Jodie in the danger zone as she looked unsure on the feet...bit surprising as I thought being an ex model and athletic she'd be more coordinated but there you are.

I still stick with Heather only because of her partner but am not sure.

Jessie might well be saved by having Darren as her pro partner

I think that it will be Cherie - shes low with the bookies and shes the only female who I havent heard of, so I dont think she's going to last long. But then again, I thought Stephanie was going to be there much longer last year, so what do I know!

I agree Heather will be low down to, but Jessie is to popular to go out first in my opinion.

And Jessie has a very popular pro partner. I think it will be Jodie v Heather in the drop zone

And that could mean another early exit for Ian

I hope it's Jodie, her whining is getting on my nerves already and the show hasn't started.

1st Show = Heather Small

2nd Show = Jodie Kidd

Although it depends on how they're ranked/ dance IMO as some could be bloody awful. However I can definately see Heather having an early exit as she has a small fanbase

I'm expecting Jodie to struggle more than Heather.

I agree with this. Heather is a singer so shouldn't struggle with the performance side of things, and she said her family have wanted her to do the show for ages, which suggests they know she'll be good at it from a dance point of view. It helps that she starts with salsa which is freer so no heel-lead type comments from Len, and Brian is used to the mambo (a component of American rhythm) which is similar so she's in good hands.

If Jodie is starting with the foxtrot she could be safe, but I can't imagine her doing a great salsa.

As they all seem to be starting on what should on paper be their stronger dances of the 2 options on offer, we could end up with a shock exit...

I still think the last 2 in the first week will be Christine and Jessie - i don't care how 'popular' their pro partners are - that is only on here, it doesn't mean the rest of the millions of voters vote for their favourite pro, or feel the same.

Christine looks so scared and unsure, i don't think she will do very well on the first show.

Yeah. We've heard from Christine and it seems she is now confident. Matt has said her foxtrot is ready to be seen which is kinda good a week and a bit before it is meant to be seen.

I agree with you; I don't think the popularity of the pro partner is as important as people make out. But I think Christine and Jessie are starting with dances in their comfort zone so should be OK. The big hurdle especially for Christine will be with the judges. I think in this regard being with the defending champion could well place her at a slight disadvantage. I was never Matt Dawson's biggest fan but in series 4 I felt the judges were unneccessarily harsh to him to begin with, and Lilia winning the previous year may have contributed to this.


They've had loads of time though, more than the usual one week (or 5 days in fact, as they rarely practised on sundays in the early weeks)

A lot depends on how the judges make their comments on the performance as well as their marks

No matter how bad a dancer is - if the judges are nasty to them (particularly Craig and Arlene), the public seem to always give them a massive sympathy vote.

Nasty comments and unfair marks (like Craigs "2 - 1 for each foot!" ) always guarantee a place in next weeks show.

Constructive comments and a fair mark get the results they want. Had they been nicer to Kate Garraway last year - they would have got her out in the first or second week. As it was, she lasted far longer than she would have because the public were sticking 2 fingers up at the judges.

The judges will never learn

You'd think they'd have worked it out after 5 series....

Unwarranted praise and undeserved high marks = low public vote

Unnecessarily nasty and/ or personal remarks and unfairly low marks - public go into a phone frenzy.

All they have to do is be
[LIST][*]objective with their "judging" (no obvious favourite)
[*]constructive in their comments and
[*]fair in their marking[/LIST]
That will appeal to our sense of fair play.