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Blue Ray Gone by 2012?


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Old 25-09-2008, 01:26
stateofgameplay
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I don't think Blu Ray is going anywhere yet.
There needs to be a price shift in order to get people interested over DVD, and it will come.

Once they start pushing Blu-Ray players at Christmas this year, dropping the price, and the immediate benefits of it become clear, then I think it'll take off. Sony have a Profile 2.0 player out now for less than £200. £150 is the mark to really crack it.

But its going to take a while to phase out DVD in the long term, the vast majority of HD content is currently film. Remember it took a while for DVD to really get a foothold, once the supermarkets started pitching in with their super-cheap DVD players (Remember Sainsbury's and their bog-off Wharfedale machines?) and the best advert for Blu-Ray so far, the PS3, has only been out for one Christmas in the UK. (Its by far the most future proof player, if not the cheapest any longer).

No need to get excited about its potential demise just yet. This country is in no way ready for a digital streamed home just yet.
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Old 25-09-2008, 13:06
linkinpark875
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But its going to take a while to phase out DVD in the long term, the vast majority of HD content is currently film. Remember it took a while for DVD to really get a foothold, once the supermarkets started pitching in with their super-cheap DVD players (Remember Sainsbury's and their bog-off Wharfedale machines?) and the best advert for Blu-Ray so far, the PS3, has only been out for one Christmas in the UK. (Its by far the most future proof player, if not the cheapest any longer).
Going back to about 2002 DVD was still expensive so the PS2 was the cheap option to get a cheap DVD player. VHS lasted about 15 years so DVD will probably still be popular until 2012 at least. For me consoles like the Wii and Xbox 360 will be more popular due to price.

Blue Ray will find it hard has the target people are those using LCD TV's and many people still have CRT and are likely to for a good few years yet. It was only about two years ago that CRT's with no digital inbuilt were being sold in shops. I think you can still buy VHS tapes in tesco and DVD/Video combos in shops.

A cheap Blue Ray player could sell for £100 at the moment surely with it dropping to £25 in three years?
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Old 25-09-2008, 21:00
classictvdvd
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Going back to about 2002 DVD was still expensive so the PS2 was the cheap option to get a cheap DVD player. VHS lasted about 15 years so DVD will probably still be popular until 2012 at least. For me consoles like the Wii and Xbox 360 will be more popular due to price.

Blue Ray will find it hard has the target people are those using LCD TV's and many people still have CRT and are likely to for a good few years yet. It was only about two years ago that CRT's with no digital inbuilt were being sold in shops. I think you can still buy VHS tapes in tesco and DVD/Video combos in shops.

A cheap Blue Ray player could sell for £100 at the moment surely with it dropping to £25 in three years?
The PS2 was about £200 in 2000 but dvd players were generally more expensive although supermarkets had broken the £200 barrier by then.

VHS started in 1977 so it was 25 years until DVD sales overtook vhs and the BBFC only ended VHS submissions this year.

Its been at least 4 years since the big boys like Panasonic stopped CRT production themselves.

All the CRT's available since then have been the el cheapo supermarket stuff but some of the big brands did use their badge on the cheap stuff - much as they did a few years earlier with VHS recorders.

Why compare the Wii and X-box to Bluray?

They are games consoles - the Wii wont even display HD so no relation at all.

With cheap Bluray players hitting £150 already the £100 barrier will get broken next year - but compared to the PS3 all standalones are already archaic so it could be a while before standalones equal the ease of use of the PS3 - but as the PS3 is £300 I'm sure folks will tolerate the cheap players.

The main stumbling block is that a lot of people still have CRT so until they are ready to repalce their set they wont be in the market for HD.

But Bluray sales have passed the 2 million mark so its going quite well.
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Old 25-09-2008, 22:55
linkinpark875
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With cheap Bluray players hitting £150 already the £100 barrier will get broken next year - but compared to the PS3 all standalones are already archaic so it could be a while before standalones equal the ease of use of the PS3 - but as the PS3 is £300 I'm sure folks will tolerate the cheap players.
I can't see them being £100 in shops by next year. The only prices I've seen for £150 are all online deals in shops prices are still £200 or more.
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Old 25-09-2008, 23:03
classictvdvd
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I can't see them being £100 in shops by next year. The only prices I've seen for £150 are all online deals in shops prices are still £200 or more.
While I agree that £100 in shops next year might be a tall order I wont rule it out.

Once the cheapo companies from the Far east start supplying the supermarkets the prices will come down.

I didnt expect them to be involved for a while yet but with online prices at £150 it seems like time for Tescos etc to join the party with budget players.

But I wonder how many numpties will snap them up and then get home to their CRT and start whinging
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Old 26-09-2008, 07:58
MAW
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I'd rule out £100 BD players next year, unless it's someone flogging off old stock of outdated players. And if they are LG or Samsung, they may well not be supported by firmware upgrades in future, so you might be buying a door stop as far as newer discs are concerned. Profile 2.0 players are expensive, there are quite a number on the way, but all £350+
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Old 26-09-2008, 11:14
AVTalk
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Although I realise it's still a small minority, people who use projectors in their homes (and it is a growing number) really do see huge benefits from Blu-ray.

With perfectly acceptable 1080p projectors now available for the price of a decent 42" plasma, I think the number of people with them will grow.

Due to the region coding, I bought my Panasonic Blu-ray player in the States - got it in Best Buy and simply carried it back on the plane as hand luggage. Only cost me the equivalent of £250 and new release US discs can be had for as little as £14 if you shop around.

Not only is the image quality far, far superior to upscaled DVD at larger sizes, it also beats 720p downloads hands down. They're great for US HDTV shows but not for movies IMO, although, on smaller screens the difference would not be as noticeable, admittedly.

One thing that people don't seem to talk about as much as the image quality is the improved sound quality. I was honestly amazed by the capabilities of my system once I heard DTS-HD Master-Audio 7.1 and even 5.1 Dolby TrueHD gives very noticeable improvements.

It really does offer a different (and better) overall experience to regular DVD and for £250 I think that's well worth it.

My shiny new 'Iron Man' Blu-ray arrived this morning and I literally cannot wait to see it - even though I saw it at the cinema.
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Old 26-09-2008, 16:17
David (2)
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Well this just confirms my thoughts - movies could go the same way as music - online. Moreover, its a case of when, not if. Blu-ray may have a normal life span then online takes over, or maybe online will kill Blu-ray stone dead within a few years.....

Certainly, from what I have seen so far......

Online needs faster connection speeds. It can be done now, but for this be common place, everyone is going to need at least a 10Mb connection, and everyone will have to be on a "unlmited usage" contract. As was already said, my fear is that unless you live in a big City, you wont get 10Mb connections - EVER! It would simply be seen as too expensive with little or no return in money terms, and too technically difficult. Downloads via satellite (it only has to download) may be the only future hi-speed connection option for some parts the country.

Blu-ray on a £1,200 42 or 50inch screen can look good. But even so its not like going from VHS to DVD again. Smaller screens (which at the moment use cheaper tech) dont even look as impressive when playing a blu-ray disc. Many people, who mostly have the smaller screens (upto 32inch) are quite happy with normal SD DVD quality, and they cant justify paying the extra for a Blu-ray drive (and then buy the movies again on Blu-ray discs).

In the current credit crunch, the price of blu-ray players and discs will mean take up is slower than expected.

Blu-ray cant record yet, while normal DVD can. I for one would want to be able to record on blu-ray just as I do now on normal DVD.

Complex issues such as "firmware updates" and "Profiles", and hamstrung freatures that let you get bonus feature for a given movie when the drive is conected to your home internet connection will simply confuse many people. Again, if you reall want to employ this sort of stuff, go all the way and add it to Online movies. A far better platform for such things as it doesnt have the limitations of a plain player trying to access a service through a gated internet service.

Dave
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Old 26-09-2008, 16:28
davidweller
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My computer and tv are in separate rooms (and never the twain shall meet); and I will watch movies on a piddling little screen.

My set-up upscales DVD so well that I will be buying new films on Blu-ray, but will continue to get older films on DVD.

And I will not be replacing any DVDs with Blu-ray. Would rather spend my (limited) funds on getting material that I do not already have.
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Old 26-09-2008, 17:04
David (2)
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The tv and PC are going to merge....it can already be done -

Apple Mac Mini with fast broadband connection. Locate it on the tv shelf (its very small). Recommend an ethernet connection to the modem/router.

Apple iTunes + iTunes Store subscription (free).

DVI-HDMI cable to HDMI on TV.

Audio cable from Mac Mini audio socket to hifi (or use powered mini speakers).

Apple wireless keyboard + mouse.

Your tv is then the computer screen, and all of iTunes and the Store is shown on it inc movies, music videos, tv series to purchase and download, as well as music for purchase and download, plus lots of free stuff - such as hundreds and hundreds of streaming radio stations, podcasts, and video podcasts, and even some of this is in HD quality. There's already stuff like News headlines from Sky. All it needs is the main tv broadcasters to start adding catch up content and live channel streaming. If that happens, and provided your computer is upto the job (and the internet speed), you could junk the tv aerial and satellite dish.

Dave
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Old 26-09-2008, 18:20
soulboy77
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I've started using the Wii to watch BBC iPlayer programmes and YouTube videos on the TV.
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Old 26-09-2008, 18:58
davidweller
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The tv and PC are going to merge....it can already be done -

Apple Mac Mini with fast broadband connection. Locate it on the tv shelf (its very small). Recommend an ethernet connection to the modem/router.

Apple iTunes + iTunes Store subscription (free).

DVI-HDMI cable to HDMI on TV.

Audio cable from Mac Mini audio socket to hifi (or use powered mini speakers).

Apple wireless keyboard + mouse.

Your tv is then the computer screen, and all of iTunes and the Store is shown on it inc movies, music videos, tv series to purchase and download, as well as music for purchase and download, plus lots of free stuff - such as hundreds and hundreds of streaming radio stations, podcasts, and video podcasts, and even some of this is in HD quality. There's already stuff like News headlines from Sky. All it needs is the main tv broadcasters to start adding catch up content and live channel streaming. If that happens, and provided your computer is upto the job (and the internet speed), you could junk the tv aerial and satellite dish.

Dave
In our house this convergence would never happen.

When I'm working on the computer (and I do use it for work as I work at home) someone will be watching the tv and when I'm watching the tv, someone else will be on the computer.
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Old 26-09-2008, 20:27
therivierekid
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I'd rule out £100 BD players next year, unless it's someone flogging off old stock of outdated players. And if they are LG or Samsung, they may well not be supported by firmware upgrades in future, so you might be buying a door stop as far as newer discs are concerned. Profile 2.0 players are expensive, there are quite a number on the way, but all £350+
The PS3 is already Profile 2 and its below £300.

Profile 2 is irrelevant for disc playback - all it does is enable downloading stuff from the net - so who cares?

The current Panaasonic players are Profile 1.1 which means you can access all the on disc extras already.

Unfortunately except for the PS3 loading times on players is still very slow.
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Old 26-09-2008, 20:30
therivierekid
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In our house this convergence would never happen.

When I'm working on the computer (and I do use it for work as I work at home) someone will be watching the tv and when I'm watching the tv, someone else will be on the computer.
I agree.

Its probably at least a decade away before tv and computer become one unit for most people.

Its still a mystery how long it will be before its possible to download complete movies in full Bluray quality in a consumer friendly amount of time
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Old 26-09-2008, 20:36
zaeon
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Tesco are doing a Blu-Ray player for £189 and a Sony Blu-Ray for under £270....So it would seem prices are begining to slide. And it has been noted that some Blu-Ray writer drives for PC's have dropped dramatically, however.......The price of the media is still on the high side.
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Old 26-09-2008, 21:36
davidweller
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post deleted - in wrong thread
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Old 27-09-2008, 06:30
MAW
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The PS3 is already Profile 2 and its below £300.

Profile 2 is irrelevant for disc playback - all it does is enable downloading stuff from the net - so who cares?

The current Panaasonic players are Profile 1.1 which means you can access all the on disc extras already.

Unfortunately except for the PS3 loading times on players is still very slow.
Profile 2 is very relevant if the disc won't play back! You don'tr even notice it with a PS3, the firmware upgrades are regular and good, hats off to Sony. It's the non profile 2 players whare firmware upgrades are more difficult. I have heard of the PS3 you know, in spite of being nearly 1/2 a century old. Yes, what's that black thing in my son's room? Ours cost slightly over £300, prices change, but not below £100, which is the question I was answering. The PS3 is not going to make Blu ray mainstream, though it was of course pivotal in winning the format war. Ask Davidweller if he's going to buy a thumping great games console with a weird remote to play back blu rays, and play games on his TV!
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Old 27-09-2008, 08:32
clockworks999
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Profile 2 is very relevant if the disc won't play back! You don'tr even notice it with a PS3, the firmware upgrades are regular and good, hats off to Sony. It's the non profile 2 players whare firmware upgrades are more difficult. I have heard of the PS3 you know, in spite of being nearly 1/2 a century old. Yes, what's that black thing in my son's room? Ours cost slightly over £300, prices change, but not below £100, which is the question I was answering. The PS3 is not going to make Blu ray mainstream, though it was of course pivotal in winning the format war. Ask Davidweller if he's going to buy a thumping great games console with a weird remote to play back blu rays, and play games on his TV!
I'm over 50. I've got my own PS3, living under the TV. I use it to play games and watch Blu-Ray disks.
I use a USB IR dongle with my Harmony remote to control it.
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Old 27-09-2008, 11:30
MAW
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I think you're very wise, but in a minority. I use my laptop, which has HDMI out. These solutions are just not for everybody. Our PS3 has a noisy fan, so we don't have it in the living room except when we are out, and the lad has his mates there. I appreciatye that many are very quiet, I've had ours back to the shop 2-3 times, it's within tolerance. Apparently.
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Old 27-09-2008, 11:35
Deacon1972
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I think you're very wise, but in a minority.
I'm two score and ten and also have a PS3 though it's mainly used for Bluray not games.

I also have laptop with a dongle that controls my mouse.

I think Bluray will live happily along side DVD for many years to come.
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Old 27-09-2008, 12:40
MAW
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Live alongside DVD yes, but it's not going to be viable unless it's mainstream, so it'll remain a niche fromat with a declining number of releases as downloads take off. The thing that could save it, prolong it's life, is indeed cheap fully working players.
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Old 27-09-2008, 20:35
lenaolin
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Profile 2 is very relevant if the disc won't play back! You don'tr even notice it with a PS3, the firmware upgrades are regular and good, hats off to Sony. It's the non profile 2 players whare firmware upgrades are more difficult. I have heard of the PS3 you know, in spite of being nearly 1/2 a century old. Yes, what's that black thing in my son's room? Ours cost slightly over £300, prices change, but not below £100, which is the question I was answering. The PS3 is not going to make Blu ray mainstream, though it was of course pivotal in winning the format war. Ask Davidweller if he's going to buy a thumping great games console with a weird remote to play back blu rays, and play games on his TV!
Profile 2 IS totally irrelevant to disc playback as it offers nothing to enhance it.

All it does is enable a net connection for downloading stuff.

Profile 1.1 players will play everything on any disc.

The PS3 is the smallest Bluray player on the market.

Its hardly a thumping great games console .

You've obviously never looked at Sony or Panasonic players that are far wider than the PS3.

Who cares about games?

I have a PS3 and not a single game.

I use my own universal remote control to watch movies and the only time the PS3 remote comes out is for typing out stuff on the web browser.
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Old 27-09-2008, 20:48
soulboy77
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If the film studios decide to no longer put out movies on SD DVDs then we will all be forced down the Blu-ray route. When a media is no longer available then you don't have much choice than to buy the new format if you wish to own a copy.

At the moment there is no point buying movies on Blu-ray films unless the cinematography is really excellent and the movie is a good one. Good old DVD will more than suffice in the majority of cases. There are some really crap films being put out on Blu-ray and you have to ask the question why bother?
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Old 27-09-2008, 21:01
MAW
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Er, firmware upgrades are VITAL to BD+ copy protection and continued future disc playback. How are you proposing to keep your profile 1.1 player up to date? That's why the PS3 is the best blu ray player, and why you all have them.
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Old 27-09-2008, 21:21
lenaolin
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Live alongside DVD yes, but it's not going to be viable unless it's mainstream, so it'll remain a niche fromat with a declining number of releases as downloads take off. The thing that could save it, prolong it's life, is indeed cheap fully working players.
Bluray has already sold more than a million discs in the UK this year and is here to stay.

I would say that the Bluray list of releases (for movies at least) will be as long as that for dvd before downloads take over ...if they ever do.

Downloads may be a suitable alternative for renters but its not for those who like to collect.

And with download speeds unlikely to be giving us full Bluray quality downloads in less than 48 hours I think the future for downloaded movies is bleak for the next few years.
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