I was just wondering. Is the initial favourite to win in The X Factor (like the one before the first live show). Have they ever been the actual winner in the end ? If not, who was the favourite to win and how far off were they from winning ?
Is the initial Favourite To Winner ever the actual winner ?
Shayne was the favourite in Series 2 and won...
Everything changed on last years/ series 3 after the first live show... Unconventionals were 8/1 to win [4th favourite or something] and got eliminated
Everything changed on last years/ series 3 after the first live show... Unconventionals were 8/1 to win [4th favourite or something] and got eliminated
Roberta was favourite to win Series 1 at first.
Last year the bookies reckoned it was between Andy, Daniel and Futureproof/Hope, with Niki, Rhydian and Same Difference as rank outsiders.
I place lots of small bets at long odds at this stage.
Last year the bookies reckoned it was between Andy, Daniel and Futureproof/Hope, with Niki, Rhydian and Same Difference as rank outsiders.
I place lots of small bets at long odds at this stage.
Niki was an outsider but after week 1 was the favourite until very close to the end. Leon ended up winning, if the bookies were correct he would have been out first on the final night.
Well, here's last year odds before the first live show:
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...highlight=odds
And after the first live show http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...highlight=odds
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...highlight=odds
Quote:
“Futureproof 4/1
Leon Jackson 5/1
Andy Williams 5/1
Hope 6/1
Daniel De Bourg 8/1
Emily Nakanda 8/1
Alisha Bennett 10/1
Kimberley Southwick 12/1
Rhydian 12/1
Beverley Trottman 16/1
Niki Evans 18/1
Same Difference 20/1”
“Futureproof 4/1
Leon Jackson 5/1
Andy Williams 5/1
Hope 6/1
Daniel De Bourg 8/1
Emily Nakanda 8/1
Alisha Bennett 10/1
Kimberley Southwick 12/1
Rhydian 12/1
Beverley Trottman 16/1
Niki Evans 18/1
Same Difference 20/1”
And after the first live show http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...highlight=odds
Quote:
“Hope - 10/3
Nikki - 4/1
Furtureproof - 4/1
Rhydian - 7/1
Daniel - 8/1
Andy - 8/1
Leon - 9/1
Beverley - 14/1
Emily - 20/1
Alisha - 25/1
Same Difference - 40/1”
“Hope - 10/3
Nikki - 4/1
Furtureproof - 4/1
Rhydian - 7/1
Daniel - 8/1
Andy - 8/1
Leon - 9/1
Beverley - 14/1
Emily - 20/1
Alisha - 25/1
Same Difference - 40/1”
Series 3 odds:
Betfair
Ben - 4.8
Kerry - 5
Ray - 6.6
Leona - 7.2
Ashley - 8.2
Nikita - 8.2
Unconventionals - 15.5
Robert - 16.5
Mcdonold Brothers - 16.5
4sure - 25
Eton road - 27
Dionne - 54
Betting Zone
Ben - 6.5
Kerry - 7
Ashley - 7.5
The Unconventionals - 9
Ray - 9
Leona - 9
Nikitta - 11
The MacDonald Brothers - 13
Robert - 13
4Sure - 13
Eton Road - 17
Dionne - 21
Paddy Power
Leona (16-24's) 5 - 1
Ashley (16-24's) 5 - 1
Ben (25's & Over) 11 - 2
Kerry (25's & Over) 6 - 1
The Unconventionals (Groups) 8 - 1
Ray (16-24's) 8 - 1
4Sure (Groups) 9 - 1
Nikitta (16-24's) 10 - 1
Robert (25's & Over) 12 - 1
The MacDonald Brothers (Groups) 12 - 1
Eton Road (Groups) 16 - 1
Dionne (25's & Over) 20 - 1
Betfair
Ben - 4.8
Kerry - 5
Ray - 6.6
Leona - 7.2
Ashley - 8.2
Nikita - 8.2
Unconventionals - 15.5
Robert - 16.5
Mcdonold Brothers - 16.5
4sure - 25
Eton road - 27
Dionne - 54
Betting Zone
Ben - 6.5
Kerry - 7
Ashley - 7.5
The Unconventionals - 9
Ray - 9
Leona - 9
Nikitta - 11
The MacDonald Brothers - 13
Robert - 13
4Sure - 13
Eton Road - 17
Dionne - 21
Paddy Power
Leona (16-24's) 5 - 1
Ashley (16-24's) 5 - 1
Ben (25's & Over) 11 - 2
Kerry (25's & Over) 6 - 1
The Unconventionals (Groups) 8 - 1
Ray (16-24's) 8 - 1
4Sure (Groups) 9 - 1
Nikitta (16-24's) 10 - 1
Robert (25's & Over) 12 - 1
The MacDonald Brothers (Groups) 12 - 1
Eton Road (Groups) 16 - 1
Dionne (25's & Over) 20 - 1
Shayne was favorite to win from the word go in series 2. Roberta and Tabby were early favorites in series 1, Ben was early favorite series 3 and last year Future Proof were favs for reasons I will never understand??? 
That said you do see a lot of movement after the first live show, as until that point it's very hard to call.
That said you do see a lot of movement after the first live show, as until that point it's very hard to call.
Originally Posted by SamW25:
“Niki was an outsider but after week 1 was the favourite until very close to the end. Leon ended up winning, if the bookies were correct he would have been out first on the final night.”
“Niki was an outsider but after week 1 was the favourite until very close to the end. Leon ended up winning, if the bookies were correct he would have been out first on the final night.”
erm no she wasn't.....
WOW very interesting. So if this is anything to go by. Sunday morning the betting odds will have completely changed for this series.
Daniel, Scott OR Girlband may become favourite to win. (Doubt it, but you never know)
Daniel, Scott OR Girlband may become favourite to win. (Doubt it, but you never know)
Originally Posted by x-xLizx-x:
“WOW very interesting. So if this is anything to go by. Sunday morning the betting odds will have completely changed for this series.
Daniel, Scott OR Girlband may become favourite to win. (Doubt it, but you never know)”
“WOW very interesting. So if this is anything to go by. Sunday morning the betting odds will have completely changed for this series.
Daniel, Scott OR Girlband may become favourite to win. (Doubt it, but you never know)”
correct; Rhydian and Niki wer outsiders this time last year; so anything is possible really...
its all down to how well they cope under the live show type atmosphere
Originally Posted by Muttley76:
“erm no she wasn't.....”
“erm no she wasn't.....
”
For most of the series, Niki was the favourite. I thought it was from week 1 but evidently not. I do know she was the favourite though for a few weeks.
Interestingly, I heard from a trusted source that Steve was Simon's fave to win in series 1... (and he did win every one of the live finals according to Sharon O's biog so I suppose he mustve been the public's/ bookies' fave too?) did you mean fave with the public, the bookies OR the owner of the show OP??!! 
Originally Posted by SamW25:
“For most of the series, Niki was the favourite. I thought it was from week 1 but evidently not. I do know she was the favourite though for a few weeks.”
“For most of the series, Niki was the favourite. I thought it was from week 1 but evidently not. I do know she was the favourite though for a few weeks.”
Niki was favourite from week 2 for two weeks, then Rhydian became favourite until the end and she was second fav.
Originally Posted by x-xLizx-x:
“WOW very interesting. So if this is anything to go by. Sunday morning the betting odds will have completely changed for this series.
Daniel, Scott OR Girlband may become favourite to win. (Doubt it, but you never know)”
“WOW very interesting. So if this is anything to go by. Sunday morning the betting odds will have completely changed for this series.
Daniel, Scott OR Girlband may become favourite to win. (Doubt it, but you never know)”
Yup, absolutely.
That's why its impossible to tell at this stage who is the strongest, until they've actually got up on that stage and performed.
Even after this week it'll be impossible to tell who really IS the favourite - it usually starts to develop pretty concretely by about the end of the 3rd live show.
You can never really tell until after they have sung!! As everyone sounds different, and as well some people aren't as popular as the bookies/judges think they should be!!!
Originally Posted by SamW25:
“For most of the series, Niki was the favourite. I thought it was from week 1 but evidently not. I do know she was the favourite though for a few weeks.”
“For most of the series, Niki was the favourite. I thought it was from week 1 but evidently not. I do know she was the favourite though for a few weeks.”
I think she was favourite after Week 2, but then plummeted after 'All That Jazz', 'Because Of You' and the fact that she peaked too soon.
Then Rhyd became a favourite and lost.
Oddly enough, I think the much criticised DS poll correctly predicted the 3 finalists very early on- after either the second or third week performances- way before the bookies or any other polls did.
My friend correctly predicted Leon winning the x-factor 30 seconds into his very first audition clip!
shame she never placed a bet...she could of profited quite abit. I can't even begin imagine what his odds were at that point!
shame she never placed a bet...she could of profited quite abit. I can't even begin imagine what his odds were at that point!
Originally Posted by Jonners17:
“My friend correctly predicted Leon winning the x-factor 30 seconds into his very first audition clip!
shame she never placed a bet...she could of profited quite abit. I can't even begin imagine what his odds were at that point!”
“My friend correctly predicted Leon winning the x-factor 30 seconds into his very first audition clip!
shame she never placed a bet...she could of profited quite abit. I can't even begin imagine what his odds were at that point!”
LOL, so did my son and he never saw any of the live shows after that. Maybe I should listen to him more.
Those odds are very interesting.
The last two years my pre-show favourites (The Unconventionals and Kimberley) were quite high up in the betting but both went out in the first round. I'm not saying either was great on the night but I think it was in no small part due to very poor song choices and arrangements.
Basic talent doesn't necessarily translate into a winning fomula on the show, which is why I don't think you can take the odds too seriously at this stage.
Don't Ashley's odds look laughably low with the wisdom of hindsight?
The last two years my pre-show favourites (The Unconventionals and Kimberley) were quite high up in the betting but both went out in the first round. I'm not saying either was great on the night but I think it was in no small part due to very poor song choices and arrangements.
Basic talent doesn't necessarily translate into a winning fomula on the show, which is why I don't think you can take the odds too seriously at this stage.
Don't Ashley's odds look laughably low with the wisdom of hindsight?
