Going on the basis that I think that the AS is a gift dance - glamour, lifts, etc - and it's really, really easy to do an awkward/technically bad/just plain cringingly embarrassing samba, especially if you're a bloke, I'd be amazed if any AS dance is in the bottom 2. Unless Don or Andrew drop their partner, I think they're probably safe for another week. I think all the other ASs will be gorgeous.
John - will he be painfully embarrassing or better than expected? If he can manage better than you'd expect, he could be OK, even if the judges mark him down. If he's painful, he might well go - I don't really think there is a huge sympathy vote this year. Mark could score well if he has improved, most of the judges, apart from Craig, want to like him (imo). If he hasn't improved, I think he's in the most trouble. I don't even think Austin is definitely safe, if the injuries affect his energy, especially if viewers assume he's OK. I think Christine and Rachel will score higher than him with the judges, going on the footage. But I do think the judges would save Austin, unless he was against Rachel or Tom or possibly Christine. (Austin v Cherie - not sure.)
I don't think Cherie is cold - she's tough, and I'm not sure that's a vote winner either, but to me it's a different thing to cold. I haven't taken to Christine, but that's her interviews, not her dancing which is very good, and most viewers are not watching ITT or would agree with my take anyway (very influenced by having been someone who makes the coffee myself). I don't think either of them will go for weeks, because I think they'll get lots of votes, particularly Christine, and because the judges would save them if necessary.