Sorry, I think need to be more precise here - I didn't have time earlier.

Our favourite usually is the eventual winner. Below that however things tend to go awry. If the public voted the same way we do on here then the likes of John, Kate etc wouldn't stay in for very long. It seems we get the top spot right but there's some definite under and over representation of people's popularity lower down the field.

This year hasn't been quite the same as other years, partly due to the long separation of male and female celebs. The favourite couple has changed by the week and currently Jodie & Ian are ahead of Austin & Erin. There's still all to play for.

The thing that I like about SCD is that in the vast majority of cases, the dancer with the most talent and flair has usually won the day. (Darren Gough's the only real aberration IMO). Eventually, popularity takes second place to real dance talent - and that's why I'm proud to be an SCD fan As the only person who's managed to show genuine versatility, personality and skill every week, I think Austin's way out in front right now.

Bearing this in mind, I just don't think Jodie's got the stuff to cut it as a winner. However, if she pulls off a great fast Latin dance, then I'm prepared to eat my words with humble pie for dessert

If the public keep her out of the bottom two, of course she can. That gets harder as time goes on. However, this year with no CIN donation ad with so many half decent dancers, I think people will vote less generally and their votes will be more spread out among those with ability.

I rarely pick up the phone to vote until the semis but will for Jodie this year if she has a bad week. I do like her a lot. If she has a few bad weeks though, I'm not so sure I would continue voting.

Not unless she discovers a talent for rugby playing and changes her name to Austin.

I suspect you may be right, though as someone who has been really taken with the partnership I hope that she will have the impetus to stay well into November... as long as we have no one dropping out this year *crosses all fingers and toes* Depends on some of the obvious frontrunners pulling something out of the bag or not, as no one has been entirely consistent and there are question marks even in the top half of the board. I'm not really expecting her to make the semis or quarters, but that said... if we had a shock exit or one of the more obvious contenders lost momentum, she could.

Given how she started and that people are now talking about her as a potential winner I think it speaks volumes for her improvement and how people have warmed to her. I don't honestly think she will win but she's already lasted a lot longer than I initially expected, and I suspect longer than she expected.


Yup.

Its a very good question.

Jodie has and is being spun as the best story. Her marks are not there yet though.The personality is but is it selling? The story wins over Zoe and Colin and the final leaves out the best dancer in 2006 in favour of two (identical) stories but its untried ground whether tomboy becomes princess sells as well as big hunk has a soft artistic side.

Rachel on the Logans/Dawson review was Austin's competition (and who wrote that, when?) but she's not getting the marks (yet? artificially not?)

Lisa is getting the marks but hasn't got the story or character to go with it - difficult to argue she's more exciting than Rachel.

Austin is too obvious - looked like he had been training for months on day one.Obvious sometimes wins though.

The mystery is the public vote and we know nothing apart from Jodie being in the early dance off.

In my Mystic Meg moments listening to the order names are announced (which on many shows I think is in orders like 512346 or 123456 rather than random) I note Austin is never far from Rachel in the order but you can't tell much more as there are different orders that might be being used. Alll may become clear soon though when the better people start getting into the bottom 2.

She could if she does some blinding Latin. And that could happen...

I wouldn't rule her out in quite the way I'd rule Heather and John as no-hopers.

I'd like to think she could - but I'm concerned her latin will find her out.

I simply hope she's still there for the latter stages - after that anything is a bonus; although the later a favourite stays, the bigger the disappointment when they go.

As much as I'd love to think it were possible, as much for Ian's sake, I can't see it somehow. I have really grown to like her. But I think however long she stays in now is a bonus compared to my expectations in the beginning. I think it'll be more down to the random under-achievements of the some of the others. Just as she may struggle in Latin, several of them are not proving very consistent so far and are doing good week/bad week.

I think the odds are against her - sadly....
....BUT she is winning hearts and that is key.

She certainly has had my vote every time so far.
People at home don't vote for technical perfection, they like to see heart and soul and progress and she delivers all of those.

Never say never!

I believe that if she wow us with at least one latin numbers, and continue to improve, even if she's not perfect, she may get into the finals. As for winning, so far I can't see it happening for her. She has already improved vastly, but she must not stop there.

Also, don't understand those 'yawning' comments about Austin. Why? He IS a good dancer, isn't he? He has no dance training prior to the show, ain't he? Alright, he's driven to want to do well, so what?

As much as I love Jodie, I do not think she will win, sadly . However, she has improved hugely and her popularity is continuing to grow. If she can surprise us with a few fast Latin dances, she could make the top five.

Yes indeed it forums are populated by the uber-devoted but there's been a marked switch in the result of the elimination game this week. I seem to recal it being almost a forgone conclusion that A&E win it.

You're right about the latin - Ian really needs to have his clever head on when planning the routines!

No, but I reckon on her being in the quarters at least.

Im really enjoying the improvement Jodie has made, i personally felt she should have been 2nd last week, cant say i was impressed by Lisa or Rachel, but Jodie really shone. I think her latin may well let her down though, i would like to see her reach the semis, her partnership with Ian is good, and she is very endearing.
I dont think she will win, am really wanting Austin to do that, but would like to see her as a contender!!!

Well I think she will struggle to actually win unless she is a wow at the latin. She has so far not been given a 'fast' latin to do which I thought would be this week but I have read rumours she is a ballroom again. Not doing a fast latin early is setting her up for a difficult journey to the final. I hope she does well, I wasnt sure about her at first but she has grown on me and if Cherie cant go to the final I would like to see Jodie there.

I think the next few weeks are going to be very interesting, we are now getting to the point where the public vote really does count, and theire popularity will be tested for real. I agree with an earlier poster all the polls on this forum and the top three one done earlier would seem to imply that Tom will struggle with public popularity, but I expect the judges will work hard to keep him in as long as possible.

Would love to see her in the final as for me she is what Strictly is all about. Someone who at the start has zero dance ability and through hard work and determination has improved week on week. Unfortunately she does not seem to be one of the judges favourites and seems undermarked compared to some. I think she may end up like Zoe Ball and make the final , but not win. Think the fast latin will be the make orr break for her

I'd love to think she has a chance. Not because she's my favourite. I don't really have one. But I admire her attitude. She's great.

Even Arlene said on ITT last night that her latin dance (samba? I get so confused!) was looking good.

Last year I was supporting Alesha completely and have found this year's show quite stagnant but Jodie is the only one who is keeping me interested and showing progression along with an endearing personality. I really hope she has a chance to win but it is doubtful because you know if she is in the bottom against any of the favourites she will be gone. I hope she now has enough public support to keep her in for a while as I am enjoying watching her improve.

i cant see it unless she stops looking so lanky-last weeks waltz was really good but i think she'll struggle with the fast latin dances

I simply don't understand this notion that Jodie has been on a Journey.

She was good from the start. It was only judges bias that gave a negative impression against her.

She's been consistently undermarked. I would love her to win.

Yep, it was the samba - and I found that interesting as well. A couple of days ago I would have said that Jodie had no chance. There are too many dancers ahead of her, indications are that she will struggle with a fast Latin and she wouldn't have the judges' support in a later dance off. However, she is popular (and she seems to have won her own popularity despite a poor showing at first which I respect) and her Latin this week is a possible surprise.

I'll reserve my judgement on this until after tonight's performance.

She was? Must buy a new telly because she looked awful on mine! She has improved and all credit to her. But she is not going to make the final IMO.