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Transfer votes. |
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#1 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Transfer votes.
We are now at the stage where favourites are going. It will be important where your vote goes after your favourite is sent home. Are you someone who changes from week to week or are you commited to one of the contestants ? If you have a favourite will you continue to vote if he/she/they are knocked out or will you just lose interest ?
I have some voting figures from a friend who works for a major bookmaker. It is not the official ITV figures I hasten to add, but it is from a regular poll used by a number of bookmakers and conducted by one of the most reputable pollsters. Allowing the usual margin for error, things are closer than many people think..the odds only reflect the amount of money wagered. So, who ( if anyone ) would you vote for if your favourite was sent home ? |
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#2 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 8,710
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The perfect winner for me has gone,i havnt voted since
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#3 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,698
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I vote several times for Alex each week. She is me fave.
If she went then i'd vote for Diana (i voted for her a couple of times last night) |
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#4 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,118
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I have been voting for Daniel. Won't vote for anyone else as they don't appeal to me.
It will be nice, though, to be able to watch and enjoy and not be bothered by who wins. I was a Rhydian fan last year and I got far too caught up in it. |
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#5 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Behind the arras
Posts: 2,524
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I'd vote Alex
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#6 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Quote:
I vote several times for Alex each week. She is me fave.
If she went then i'd vote for Diana (i voted for her a couple of times last night) |
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#7 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Digital Spy Forums.
Posts: 6,578
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I don't vote
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#8 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 447
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I voted twice for Ruth last night, first time i have voted for anything, and if she went i wouldn't vote again but would hope Alex wins. Maybe if Diana was against someone except eogen in the final two i would vote for the other person just to make sure Diana didn't win.
Btw can you give us the voting figures? |
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#9 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: London
Posts: 2,539
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Alex & Diana - different zones, love your acceptance level and range ![]() I don't see any changes of voting pattern eventhough laura has gone. Either all laura fans supported laura or not many number exists! Quote:
I vote several times for Alex each week. She is me fave.
If she went then i'd vote for Diana (i voted for her a couple of times last night) |
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#10 |
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Posts: n/a
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If Diana went, I wouldn't vote for anyone.
Maybe Alexandra if she gave a performance that blew me away. |
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#11 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Quote:
I voted twice for Ruth last night, first time i have voted for anything, and if she went i wouldn't vote again but would hope Alex wins. Maybe if Diana was against someone except eogen in the final two i would vote for the other person just to make sure Diana didn't win.
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#12 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 818
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Quote:
We are now at the stage where favourites are going. It will be important where your vote goes after your favourite is sent home. Are you someone who changes from week to week or are you commited to one of the contestants ? If you have a favourite will you continue to vote if he/she/they are knocked out or will you just lose interest ?
I have some voting figures from a friend who works for a major bookmaker. It is not the official ITV figures I hasten to add, but it is from a regular poll used by a number of bookmakers and conducted by one of the most reputable pollsters. Allowing the usual margin for error, things are closer than many people think..the odds only reflect the amount of money wagered. So, who ( if anyone ) would you vote for if your favourite was sent home ? If Diana went, I'd want Ruth to win...I'd vote for her in the final if she got there... |
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#13 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Quote:
I voted twice for Ruth last night, first time i have voted for anything, and if she went i wouldn't vote again but would hope Alex wins. Maybe if Diana was against someone except eogen in the final two i would vote for the other person just to make sure Diana didn't win.
Btw can you give us the voting figures? It is a poll though, not voting figures..I may have mislead you there. It is only significant because these guys should know the people to sample from previous experience. Last edited by RichmondBlue : 16-11-2008 at 16:48. Reason: addition |
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#14 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,474
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Quote:
Can you share those voting figures?
If Diana went, I'd want Ruth to win...I'd vote for her in the final if she got there... |
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#15 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 447
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Quote:
Yes, I'll dig them out and post them later on today..I'm not at home right now. I do know the top three were still.. 1. Diana 2. Eoghan 3. Alex..so no major surprises. The percentages were closer than I would have thought among all the contestants though. It really is still up for grabs this year.
It is a poll though, not voting figures..I may have mislead you there. It is only significant because these guys should know the people to sample from previous experience. |
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#16 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Hallelujah forAlexandra Burke
Posts: 1,505
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My favourite is Alex and I've voted several times for her each week, i did give Rachel 1 vote last week as i felt she would need it, but that was the first time i'd given anyone other than Alex a vote and last night i kept it simply to Alex again.Laura was my 2nd fave and i had planned on voting for her should Alex go before her.Since Laura is not in it anymore should Alex not go all the way I simply will stop voting when she isn't in it.
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#17 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Quote:
Yeah that's still good as the favourite poll on here isn't very accurate as i think we tend to influence each other. I thought JLS would be 3rd. Are these from the beginning of the series or recently cast?
Percentages: Diana Vickers......19.4 Eoghan Quigg.....18.5 Alexandra Burke..16.3 Ruth Lorenzo.......14.8 JLR........................12.9 Daniel Evans..........9.4 Rachel Hylton.........8.7 |
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#18 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 818
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Interesting...do you have them for every week?
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#19 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,118
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Quote:
Right, as promised. I guess these figures must ignore "dont knows" or undecided contributors to the sample. They are tracker polls done on a weekly basis and were pretty close in previous years. The accuracy improves as the weeks go by, currently the margin of error is still quite large..3%.. as we have mutiple choices. Come the final three, the margin should fall to around 1%. A key benefit of tracking polls is that the trend of a tracking poll (the change over time) corrects for bias: regardless of whether a poll consistently over or underestimates opinion, the trend correctly reflects increases or decreases..or so they say.
Percentages: Diana Vickers......19.4 Eoghan Quigg.....18.5 Alexandra Burke..16.3 Ruth Lorenzo.......14.8 JLR........................12.9 Daniel Evans..........9.4 Rachel Hylton.........8.7 So if it had gone to deadlock last night, then its likely Rachel would have gone not Daniel? |
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#20 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 3,781
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That's very interesting as most people seem to accept it's going to be a Diana/Eoghan/JLS final
Seems likely that my favourite - Rachel - will go this or next week, and that it's a given that Diana & Eoghan will get to the final, but if Alex did make the final 3, I'd vote for her. |
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#21 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Previous weeks ?..I will ask..but they are supposed to be confidential.
The bookmakers pay a considerable amount to track the trends with big money being wagered these days. It used to be just fun bets, now there are people making a living out of this type of betting. I will ask for an update each week but had better not try to push things too far..will post on friday. |
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#22 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Quote:
That's very interesting as most people seem to accept it's going to be a Diana/Eoghan/JLS final
Seems likely that my favourite - Rachel - will go this or next week, and that it's a given that Diana & Eoghan will get to the final, but if Alex did make the final 3, I'd vote for her. My surprise was that only about 6% covered the top 5 contestants, with the margin for error anyone could win in theory..except Rachel. |
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#23 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Brighton
Posts: 4,721
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Quote:
[/b]
So if it had gone to deadlock last night, then its likely Rachel would have gone not Daniel? |
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#24 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 5,494
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now lauras gone i'll be voting alex
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#25 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 447
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Quote:
Right, as promised. I guess these figures must ignore "dont knows" or undecided contributors to the sample. They are tracker polls done on a weekly basis and were pretty close in previous years. The accuracy improves as the weeks go by, currently the margin of error is still quite large..3%.. as we have mutiple choices. Come the final three, the margin should fall to around 1%. A key benefit of tracking polls is that the trend of a tracking poll (the change over time) corrects for bias: regardless of whether a poll consistently over or underestimates opinion, the trend correctly reflects increases or decreases..or so they say.
Percentages: Diana Vickers......19.4 Eoghan Quigg.....18.5 Alexandra Burke..16.3 Ruth Lorenzo.......14.8 JLR........................12.9 Daniel Evans..........9.4 Rachel Hylton.........8.7 |
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