Originally Posted by
Ansildrall:
“I want to see the odds now!
”
The key thing with odds is that they represent the outcome where the
bookies are most likely to make profit (or minimise their losses).
In a number of non-sporting events, and particularly where a public phone in applies, the bookies find it incredibly difficult sometimes to predict how that vote will be received, as they generally have no insider knowledge (despite protestations to the contrary).
Where the bookies generally get it right is for example on football, but obviously even this is not an exact science.
The clearest example I have seen of the odds completely failing is when Leon won X Factor.
10 minutes before the final started, he was clear second favourite, at about 4/1, with Rhydian 2/7 and Same Difference 6/1.
In the break between the 2 shows, Leon went out to 9/1, Same Difference closed to 7/2 and Rhydian remained constant at 2/7ish.
The reason? Punters were backing Same Difference in their droves, and deserting Leon in their droves. The bookies had to respond by cutting Same Difference's odds, and conversely increased Leon's, not based on what they thought of Same Difference's & Leon's performances, but based on trying to minimise their losses should Same Difference win. Its all about market forces.
Anyway, I've rambled on WWWWAAAAYYYY to long