She might be the judges' new favourite, she might get top marks, but it seems (from the People's voting figures) that she gets few pubiic votes - so she might be saved a few times by the judges in coming dance-offs and get to the final and get top marks from the judges, and get heavy hints from the judges to the public that she should be the winner, but the public just won't vote for her enough (no matter how good she really is) for her to win.

I think you're right, because she may make it to the final but I don't think she'll get enough votes to win. With any luck she'll go out fairly soon, and take Lisa with her. I can't stand those two!

i don't agree

voting can change week on week, even on this arguably biased forum the poll regarding favourite couple changes week on week

we now have a two dances per week scenario and this may favour those that are technically better and good at picking up choreography

in my view anything can happen and this could favour rachel just as much as any of the other competitors...

I get a feeling that a boy will win this year...probably Tom. I really like Rachel and want her to win at this stage but there seems to be a general apathy on here towards her.

As I said in the Sunday People thread, we have a snapshot in time of the voting figures (and yes I do tend to believe them even though they are in the Sunday People). However we don't know the overall trend (who is on the up and who is on the downward trend). So we can make a guess as to the probability of Rachel winning but I don't think we can say that she "cannot win". It might be that people just haven't noticed Rachel much up to now.

Her popularity will increase as more people leave the competition and her performances are improving so she could very well win.

At the moment I'd say you're right, but it could change in the coming weeks. If she can work out how to bring the performance level of her rumba to the floor for her other dances then I think she'll pick up more votes.

It's her lack of personality on the dancefloor that puts me off her - I find it all a bit like watching paint dry and so, it seems, do many others. As someone said yesterday, it's all a bit like dancing by numbers. Feet in the right place but deathly dull. I did, however, love her rumba. It feels like it's the only dance she's actually connected with in the entire competition and it made a huge difference.

However, if she can inject some personality into her dances then I think it would draw more people to her and she'd actually become a lot more popular and probably be favourite to win. There are lot of people whose votes change from week to week depending on the dances.

Perhaps Vincent needs to get her off to an acting coach? I know it's becoming a Strictly cliche but it did Gethin the world of good last year.

It can mobilise her fans, too to vote for her more. But being in the dance off would suggest she does not have so many. It also depends on what John's fans will do. Will they stop voting completely (more likely) or will they vote for somebody else.

I'm like many other people and vote for entertainment rather than performance, and so I can see people like Austin and Tom going through while Rachel doesn't get as many votes and may be in the dance off again. Being judges favourite will see her through to the final, but I don't think she'll win.

I agree.

Also, the People's numbers are from a week when Rachel was top of the judges' leaderboard and so did not seem to have a great need for votes.


She was in the dance off in a week when she was 4th in the judges' list but still seemed very high because of the 3-way tie for 1st. Some people even thought of it as 2nd. (It's actually worse to the 4th that way than in the normal way, because there isn't someone just above you that you could get past.)

She's got a huge gap to bridge though. JS, Tom & Austin are all males - nearest female vote is Christine on 500,000 - 200,000 less than Austin. Women's in SCD favour the male celebs - Alesha broke the mould but she was pretty special - Rachel doesn't have that zing.

BBC now has a leaker in its ranks - it needs to tread carefully and not treat the public as fools.

What are we basing the assertion that Rachel isn't attaining the public votes on?

RS won't win.

It will be Austin (if the public vote on dancing, personality and pretty much the whole package albeit a little arrogant) or Christine (based on improvement and she gains extra voting strength from JS votes plus she is most likely to pick up Jodie voters if the change allegiance).

I would be happy if you were right but I don't think Christine can make it through the semi final with the judges input, unless she hits some serious mojo.

People are basing it on various combinations of:

* Their own views of Rachel.

* "Over-marking" conspiracy theories (Rachel must be in danger or the judges wouldn't be giving her 10s. )

* Over-generalisation from the week she was in the dance-off.

* Over-generalisation from the People's claims about the numbers from last week.

She went from high up on the judges scoreboard to danceoff. Most winners never get in the dance off early on.

I see your point, especially as final is two person.

I suspect she will bottom with judges from now on unless judges are happy to possibly sacrifice Lisa. Depends on dances left really as both can be a little inconsistent.

I would like to see a little fight from Christine now. She has absolutely everything going for her to really make a change and take flight. Matthew should get Alesha to take her out for an evening. As if Alesha has nothing on at the moment!

Although I think Rachel is a really good dancer (I connect with her more thah Emma Bunton, though less than Zoe Ball), I tend to agree with the OP. If the judges' marks and dance-off choices get Rachel to the final against either of the boys, on the current evidence the final will be like last year, or the Series 4 final, and have very little suspense - whichever of Tom or Austin gets through will win against her. If the final is Tom v Austin, however, it could actually be the first real contest since series 2 or 3 (depending on whether you think 'Goughie's journey' had the latter one all wrapped up).

Figures leaked in the Sunday People, and I guess the fact that Rachel was in the dance off a couple of weeks ago. However as is being argued here, nothing is conclusive and you have to look at the overall picture rather than one week's figures.

However I agree that Rachel has some ground to make up, but nothing is impossible.

Given that the viewer/voters are mainly female - & that Rachel is gorgeous & rich I'd say it's very, very unlikely that she'd win.

It will be Tom or Austin.

Quite.

Well for once I feel inclined to agree with you Veri & Christa!

For the record, I don't think Rachel will triumph, but I think it would be fitting to see her contest the final as she's arguably been the most versatile and consistent. And I love her

Hi V Lady I don't suppose there's a link to these leaked figures? Was Rachel bottom? And where were Lisa and Tom placed? Ta x

Rachel is gorgoeus and that would entice me to pick up the phone & keep her in.

The title to this thread is stupid, "Rachel cannot win" even though she is consistently one of the best dancers and last night scored 4 straight tens - yeah right

Oh please. She's no more gorgeous or rich than Alesha was last year and Alesha had plenty of female voters. Play another record for goodness sake.

I still think Vincent needs to get her an acting coach, or find some other way to inject personality into her dances so people connect with her dances more. Then I think she'd actually be in with a very good chance of winning.