[b][u]After an in-depth chat about this with Mr Lee last night (and I should add that he normally ignores SCD with all his might), I found that even calling in to play all the factors in each couple's favour, I was still struggling to pick a winner.

So I though I'd use the board to make a list of the factors for and against each couple left in the competition. Please add to these reasons or say if you don't think any are valid, and then perhaps we'll find out who's got the most factors in their favour and thus perhaps pick the potential winner.

I should add at this point that I am NOT talking about overall dance talent being a 'factor' for the moment.

Right, here goes:

Lisa
FOR: She's doing a good job in both ballroom and Latin.
She looks great.
She can clearly cope with difficult choreography.
She really wants to succeed.

AGAINST: The 'Brendan' factor.
Nobody seems to be voting for her (although I put this down somewhat to the above factor).
She's in danger of looking a bit desperate b going on about how she wants to 'do it all'.

Austin
FOR: He's got natural charm coming out of his ears.
He has the sportsman's tough mental attitude.
With those pecs, he must be splitting the 'housewives' vote'.

AGAINST: His Latin is clearly not getting the same praise as his ballroom.
Erin is not a Latin dancer and I think this is affecting the routines she plans out - which don't really show Austin off in all his glory. (OK, this is linked to the above factor).

Christine
FOR: The 'Matthew Cutler factor'.
Her warm personality.
The fact she can take criticism in her stride.

AGAINST: The biggie is her fundamental lack of talent, both technical and performance-related, compared to those left in the competition.

Tom
FOR: His total versatility - ballroom or Latin, he can really sell a dance without ever seeming out of his comfort zone.
His relatively unassuming nature.
The other half of the 'housewives' vote'.

AGAINST: The 'Camilla factor' (less related to votes than to her ability to choreograph routines that put people in finals).
The judges don't seem to be blown away by him.

Rachel
FOR: Her natural ability to do any steps in an elegant manner.
The fact she's partnered with the best choreographer left in the competition.
She's on a massive wave of confidence after two top-scoring dances.
Vincent's got the advantage come Argentine tango time.

AGAINST: The rumba and foxtrot suited her well - but it took eight weeks to find them. Will the other dances work as well in her favour?
Too young and pretty to charm the housewives.

Let the debate commence!

AUTHOR'S NOTE: These are my opinions only, not facts, and I would appreciate it if people treated them as a springboard for debate and not a slagging opportunity, either on my part or theirs.

A couple more factors to put in the balance:

Tom: Appears smug!! (he may not be, but looks that way)

Rachel: Seems to have little or no personality.


JJ

Another factor , the judges appear to want Rachel and proabably Tom in the final; tehy know what they have to do to get Rachel there .

I am not supporting Tom but I have worked with him and he isn't smug at all. He's like Chandler Bing from Friends - very smiley and eager to please.

But I would totally agree with you on the second point - and, if the People's leaked voting figures are accurate (and I suspect they are), this is why the judges are desperately overmarking her - [1] to hype her up in the hope that the public will vote for her and [2] to ensure she is protected all the way to the final. So much for a level playing field ...

a point against Rachel for me is that she doesn't seem to be very interesting and comes over as very bland

[quote]
AUTHOR'S NOTE: These are my opinions only, not facts, and I would appreciate it if people treated them as a springboard for debate and not a slagging opportunity, either on my part or theirs. [quote]

What a nice thing to wish for.

Lisa
FOR: I agree she's doing quite a good job with the dancing.
She does look great - mostly.
Brendan's improved attitude this year including his support of other couples.

AGAINST: The perception (true or false) that she wants to succeed too much.
No one seems to be voting for her. (BUT: - Will this change now that Jodie's left. If Christine leaves will she pick up votes there too?)
She has a "little girl"quality. Does this count against her considering her true age?

Austin
FOR: He does charm the women hugely and appeals to othe men as a rugby player.
He plays on that charm for all he's worth. Part of his sportsman's mental attitude to psyche out the other players.
His physique is very appealing to a lot of women (and I suppose a few men).
He could pad about on all fours and some people would vote for him.

AGAINST: He plays on his charm for all he's worth. It's quite transparent and very annoying.
He's a terrible show-off. Even the girl contestants are remarking on it. (See group dance rehearsal)
His physique is actually offputting to some women it seems.
His dancing isn't as consistent as some other dancers. Even his Tango which got such high marks, divided opinion among the voters on these boards.

Christine
FOR: The Matthew Cutler factor. This is huge and cannot be underestimated. Probably the reason she's never been in the dance off.
The audience has warmed to her over time and she has a lovely personality.
She is anxious to learn from everyone including the judges.

AGAINST: You're right. She really isn't as talented as the others.
Some people are getting fed up with the fact that she's still in despite this. She should go next.


Tom
FOR: An ability to dance anything and dance it well. This is his overwhelming advantage.
His attitude that it's fun and that he wants to do well.
Does he have a housewive's vote? I'm not so sure.

AGAINST: The Camilla factor, though I don't understand it myself. If more men voted than women, then his vote would be assured to be far higher than Austin's. Why Camilla's unpopular with the housewives I don't know. People speak about her facial expressions, but they're no wilder than her professional partner, Ian's.
The judges attitude is odd. It's as if they're judging him at a higher level than some of the others.
His attitude that he wants to "get a ten" is beginning to annoy people.
The concept that he's smug. (Why? Where did it come from? Don't get it. But it's there.)


Rachel
FOR: Natural ability added to a growth in ability as rehearsals have gone on.
Very smooth mover. Small. Neat. Suits most dances especially Latin.
Vincent has pulled her out of her shyness.
Her success is bound to increase her confidence even more. She won't be scared of making a fool of herself.
The Tango to come.
A growing fan base after showing her very real talent in the Rumba and the Foxtrot.

AGAINST: Too young and pretty to charm the housewives? Probably. And not just the housewives vote either.
Not a naturally bubbly personality which is needed by the young to appeal rather than be dismissed. Appears too bland. Her talent doesn't overcome this attitude.
A very determined anti-Rachel lobby which would vote for anyone rather than see her win.


In the end it's probably between Austin, Tom and Rachel. Rachel or Tom deserve to win I think, but Austin will probably carry off the trophy due to popularity.
Last edited by FarmLoon : 24-11-2008 at 09:40

Agree with most of the OP's comments

Against Lisa: it's hard to come back after two consecutive dance-offs. There doesn't seem to be public support and it must affect morale.

Against Christine: she's clearly the worst dancer now and if the judges choose to, they can fix the leader board (a lot of tied dancers above her) to make her public popularity count for less.

For Rachel: she has massive past experience compared to the others in dance and performance skills. That must stand her in good stead (for all her supposed nerves) in coping with learning two dances per week and delivering good performances under pressure.

Here's my twopennysworth: -
Lisa - is a fighter and has proved she can raise her game in the dance-off
Austin - think he could do some stunning lifts if he got through to the show dance
Christine - has the power of a daytime TV audience behind her
Tom - again a showdance factor - not with lifts but with sheer dancability
Rachel - seems to be more relaxed and she is now showing more 'personality'

I think Tom's perceived pre-show skills may work against him a little. People expect him to be good and so don't particularly get excited when he is. Austin on the other hand was not expected to do well, hence people are impressed with him.

Agree entirel Arddy!

Servalan- agree too apart from Tom comes across to me as a grown up acting as a 5 year old boy! Did you see him on ITT last week it was one of the more cringeworthy interviews to date. I am sure he is lovely but he has turned me off voting for him for this reason and his stupid dancing face! Also the Camilla factor.

What the heck is the Camilla factor?

Not only Camilla but I have read so many times on here how they would support such and such a celebrity but cannot bring themselves to because of their pro partner.

Personally, and only my humble opinion here, but I think all the pros deserve kudos for the way they work with their celebrities.

The only favourite pro I have is Kristina, but I respect all the others, mostly. I have an obvious niggle with James but, ya know, I would never think of not supporting him if in the future he was dancing with someone I admired.

Anyway that was a bit off topic.

Back on topic. I sort of agree with everything that has been posted already, but I am sure everyone can see that the way they see the celebrities everyone else may not agree. For the life of me I cannot see smug in any of them. I don't know if I can be counted as a 'housewife' because I work, but I think posters generally mean your average woman viewer. In which case I like Rachel, so she is at least one housewive's choice.

I prefer Tom to Austin, because I see more fun in Tom. Which is a big plus for me. But I can also see that the concentration on him because of the wedding story may not have endeared him to those who don't much care for him. Which could be a negative.

Christine I agree will be picking up votes because of her television profile, she is easily the most visible of those left. Which is a big plus. I cannot warm to her but have never seen her show so I am only going on what I watch at the weekend. I thought she was pretty much overmarked at some points, and that is a negative for me.

Austin I think has had some fantastic dances, and some not so fantastic. And a bit of overmarking on these occassions I see as a bit of a negative. He is a blokes bloke, which could be a plus or a negative.

Lisa, like Rachel, I just cannot dislike. She seems pretty vulnerable to me, which I know others see as a negative but I see as a plus. But again, so I read, she has to overcome the Brendan factor. Silly really.

My 2 penny worth

Lisa + Has improved week on week, surprised her support isn't higher given the Avon factor, has had the benefit of a dance off! - Agree with the little girly expressions (bit sad for a 37 year old) and does not seem to have enough public support.

Austin + Great foot work and ballroom technique, Sports commitment & discipline, Rugby & some housewives choice. - Arms too bulky to ever look or move in a really elegant way, square hips in the Latin has never known a dance off do has not had the push this can give to performance

Christine + Prime time TV support, lovely warm smile, NI support and Matthew effect. -
Weakest dancer left now and as Austin with the dance off.

Tom + Has a natural talent and genuine enthusiasm for the dancing, elegant dancers physique, some housewives choice, Holby City voters (whilst his stint is finished the program is still showing with him in). - The Camilla factor, his facial expressions, Heel leads still need work, as Austin with the dance off.

Rachel + Great Choreography from Vincent which she manages very well, good all round improvement in both styles, like Lisa has had the push of being in a dance off. - Still not quite there with the eyes and personality, public support still needed.

Both Lisa and Rachel are precieved as 'judge's pets' and some would argue have been over-marked which can be 'voter poison' to some degree. Chrisine is the under-dog which is also a boost to public support.

Rachel (against: - I fall alseep through her dances cos she's so boring)

(For: - I fall asleep through her dances cos their so boring).

Not trying to slag anyone off, but I do disagree with some of the opinions stated, so mine are as follows (as subjective and fallible as anyone else's )

Lisa:
For - attractive woman, steady improvement in ballroom, has the judges on her side (survived two dance offs although I did think she was out danced by Jodie in the dance off last night)
Against - hasn't demonstrated that she can pull of latin with any great success (please can someone point me in the direction of one of her latin dances that really shone? I honestly can't think of one), the Brendan factor (personally, I just don't want to see him make it to the final if Matthew doesn't - the level of smugness that would produce is unimaginable , but also that I just don't think they have clicked particularly well), her increasingly ready recourse to tears when faced with the dance off decision (that sort of thing does tend to put people off), still has the cha cha and jive to tackle.

Austin:
For - attractive man, nice line in self-deprecation, tackles both ballroom and latin very well, good relationship with Erin, favoured by the judges
Against - cheekiness may be off-putting to some who see him as arrogant, his upper body is still very stiff which hinders his latin, hasn't improved as much as might be hoped over the series, Tess's endless innuendo doesn't help at all

Christine
For - attractive woman with a lovely personality, can tackle ballroom and latin competently (her jive was excellent, her samba very good indeed), takes criticism on the chin and genuinely seems to want to improve, the Matthew factor (on two levels: he has a fan base in his own right and he is an excellent teacher), now that Jodie has gone, this is probably the most attractive partnership remaining.
Against - her personality appears to put some people off (all the comments about her being false), does not have the judges on her side which means she is over-criticised (although not necessarily undermarked) giving the impression that she is far worse than she actually is, her awareness that she is one of the two weakest dancers remaining is clearly undermining her confidence, still has the rhumba and tango to tackle.

Tom
For: Most capbable all-round dancer of the competition, loves learning to dance and is excelling at it, has the judges on his side.
Against - Camilla puts off a surprising number of people and her choreography can be a bit hit and miss, the story lines that the producers keep lumbering him with, his mugging during dramatic dances.

Rachel:
For - attractive woman, technically brilliant dancer, looks good with Vincent (although their relationship hasn't really caught fire for me), has the judges very much on her side.
Against - her complete lack of affect! For a moment there was real emotion in the rhumba but it was gone again this week. It makes her rather dull to watch, particularly in comparison to the brightness that Christine and, previously, Jodie, both bring to the floor.

As I say, just my opinion. I am guessing at a Rachel v. Tom final, although I am still hoping for an Austin v. Tom final and, in my wildest and most unlikely dreams (as in it won't happen) an Austin v. Christine final.

I'm just going to adapt and add to what others have posted (this is my opinion )

Lisa
FOR:[LIST][*]She's doing a good job in ballroom[*]She looks great and has legs to die for[*]She really wants to succeed[*]Brendan is a great choreographer[/LIST]
AGAINST:[LIST][*]She struggles with latin particularly with the transitions[*]She's dancing with Brendan who is unpopular with a lot of people myself included[*]She's in danger of looking a bit desperate by going on about how she wants to 'do it all'[*]She cries at the drop of a hat[*]She plays the 'girly' card too much[*]Comes over as one of the judge's pets[*]Nobody seems to be voting for her (for what ever reason) and that must be hard to live with (and Brendan as a result!)[/LIST]
Austin
FOR:[LIST][*]He had a great start and has almost kept his standard high ever since[*]He's got natural charm coming out of his ears[*]He has the sportsman's tough mental attitude[*]With those pecs, he must be splitting the 'housewives' vote'[*]He's clearly fit with plenty of stamina[*]Men seem to like him[*]He clearly has clicked with Erin[/LIST]
AGAINST:[LIST][*]He struggles slightly with the 'just go for it and let it all hanging out' thing in his latin dances and misses out on the WOW factor[*]Some people think he is overmarked[*]Some people think he's had dance training[/LIST]
Christine
FOR:[LIST][*]The 'Matthew Cutler factor'[*]Her warm personality and down to earth attitude[*]The fact she can take criticism in her stride[*]She looks fabulous and has legs to die for[*]She listens and tries to follow the judge's advice[*]She is still improving[/LIST]
AGAINST:[LIST][*] No previous dance experience at all[*]She is also struggling with the 'just go for it and let it all hanging out' thing in her latin dances and misses out on the WOW factor (not in the jive though)[*]Not used to 'performing[*]Some people think she comes over as fake[*]Some people think she is now surviving on JS votes and the backlash against her has already started[/LIST]
Tom
FOR:[LIST][*]His total versatility - ballroom or Latin, he can really sell a dance without ever seeming out of his comfort zone[*]His relatively unassuming nature[*]The other half of the 'housewives' vote'[*]His sheer enthusiasm for dancing shines through all the time[*]Camilla is a great choreographer[/LIST]
AGAINST:[LIST][*]He's dancing with Camilla and she can come over as OTT [*]Some people think he looks smug[*]Some people think he's had dance training[/LIST]

Rachel
FOR:[LIST][*]She is beautiful[*]Has natural ability to do any steps in an elegant manner[*]She's on a massive wave of confidence after two top-scoring dances & her success is bound to increase her confidence even more so she won't be scared of making a fool of herself[*]Has improved week by week building on her natural ability[*] Very smooth mover - small, neat and suits most dances especially Latin[*]Vincent has pulled her out of her shyness[/LIST]

AGAINST:[LIST][*]Some people think she has no personality, is dull and bland[*]Some people think she is one of the judge's pets[*]Some people think she's had dance training[*]There has been a lot of negativity towards her almost since the start of the series [/LIST]

Tom is a good dancer and looks good, no doubt about it and he seems a nice person,BUT, he always seems to be playing a part and not to be a natural. I agree they have to play a role/tell a story when they dance but the better ones seem to do it naturally rather than from a script.

I pretty much agree with all of this with the following exceptions:

- I don't think no dance experience is a negative for Christine in fact I think it's a plus. Austin, Tom and Cherie (and Kelly, Alesha etc in prior series) have had a slight backlash with previous dance training/experience claims. With those that haven't, I think it endears them and any achievement during the show (particularly at the beginning) is cheered on. Instead substitute that with History Girl's comment that she appears to give the impression that she's far worse than she is. She's clearly a good dancer, and therefore her comments can appear as false modesty.

- I would add Tom and Camila's partnership. They seem to click and bounce off well with one another, which can only help during training.

- I would also add that Lisa also listens to the judges and works aspects that she's been weak on when it's been pointed out. I feel she does work hard and a trier (which is probably combined with her will to suceed).

I do find the comments about the judges protecting certain people by overmarking them amusing. It seems like sour grapes from fans of couples at the lower end of the scoreboard.

I personally think every couple has been overscored at one time or another this series but generally the leaderboard has been pretty fair. The only couple who I think were consistently overmarked were Cheri and James.

IMO, anyone who doesn't think Rachel deserved to be at the top of the leaderboard the past two weeks is either blind or biased.

I don't get some of the negative comments about the celebs personalities either. Of the remaining 5 the only one I have slight reservations about is Tom and I've decided to put that down to just the way he comes across on TV.

I must be blind then

There's another thread on here which refers to 'leaked voting figures' in one of the tabloids. I believe the figures were for the week before last. If they're to be believed, and I remain sceptical, then Tom is more popular than Austin (well at least for that week!).

Anyway:

Tom:

For: The Wedding

Against: The Wedding

I don't get the smug thing myself, and why don't people like Camilla. I think she's great myself (although not my favourite).

Just a small point of clarification. My point was that it was the judges' comments (mainly criticism with limited praise) that I think is giving the impression that Christine is worse than she is, not Christine's own comments. I don't find her falsely modest at all, but I know there are people who do, just as I don't think that Lisa is that much better a dancer than Christine is, although I know again there are people who do. Personally, I think if Christine had received the 'most dramatic improvement' comments that Lisa received for her VW, we would see different opinions being expressed by viewers than the ones we are seeing today, but I could be wrong about that...

Sorry, I misread. I thought there was a comma in between. My mistake! Although my point still stands. Although I've not been a supporter of Christine (there are others I like better) I don't find her falsely modest either, but I believe such an impression may stem from some of her comments where she does talk herself down in relation to the other dancers, although it could be a lack of confidance or both or none of the above...and I feel that is a con in the context of this thread.

Yes, I get you. I can't say I have read her comments that way since the very beginning of the show, but I know that others feel differently and yes, that would be a con in the context of the thread.