Going by the leaked figures from a few weeks back, which looked pretty reasonable to me, Tom was topping the public vote, followed by Austin and then Christine. That makes sense to me as the blokes always do well on these kinds of shows. The question is how many votes has Christine picked up since John's departure?

If she is bottom of the leaderboard (and I suspect she will be), she'll have to top the public vote to avoid the bottom two. Can she poll higher than the boys? Even if she does this, she might be in the bottom two anyway if Rachel tops the leaderboard and comes fourth in the public vote.

Basically, my instinct is that the bottom two will come from the three girls. Unless the judges decide to hold Lisa up bigtime, she's almost a sure bet, but I think they're unlikely to do this as it would be at the expense of Rachel. Then it comes down to Rachel and Christine. Rachel really needs to top the leaderboard to avoid the dance-off, but if she does this, then I think Christine will be going home.

There is another element to this that makes me desperately want to keep Christine in...........Matthew is wanted to dance with Alesha in the xmas special so the BBC will not want Christine in the last 3 as THEY also are going to be in the xmas special. I think its a shame on Alesha fans, but an ABSOLUTE outrage for Christine. The BBC already refused her any time off this week to put her at a disadvantage over Rachel, Austin and Tom level playing field anyone ?

I SO hope she comes out and does some fantastic dances like Gethin did last year on the first 2 dance week. I also agree that she will have picked up some John and Jodie votes so more power to her elbow.

Christine's tango training in the interview with Jodie and Ian looked really good but I think the night belongs to Tom's waltz.

I think the leader board will be like...

1. Tom
2. Austin
2. Rachel
4. Lisa
4. Christine

Thanks for explaining that. I'm glad it's the public vote that decides who goes through to the dance-off in the event of a tie.

I think what order they dance in may have a bearing on where they come on the leaderboard....
Thinking about it they are probably going to try to keep Austin apart from Rachel (as they won't want two pasos one after the other), Rachel split from Tom (both doing the waltz) and Lisa away from Austin (both doing the foxtrot)....
Quite what my point is I'm not sure!! If Rachel's waltzes first I can see her getting 9s and Tom would then probably get some 10s.... If it's the other way around then Rachel would be the one with the 10s. I hope I'm making sense!!

Anyway, after that load of codswallop, I think it will be a Rachel v Lisa dance off (although I think Rachel may be more popular than people give her credit for- her last two dances will probably have attracted people to vote for her)... and I think Lisa will go home.

xx

I think I'm destined to disagree with you Why the conspiracy theory? She's the only one with a day job and she knew the score before she entered the competiton - Gethin had a day job last year and it didn't stop him topping the leaderboard in the quarter-finals and being a serious contender. Christine just isn't as good as Tom, Austin or Rachel and even if she got a break from the One Show she probably still wouldn't be up to their standard - I don't think it's fair if she puts out one of them due to the cult of personality or conspiracy theories. Besides I'm sure that the producers of the program would rather Brendan was available to dance with Kelly and I don't see you saying the same things about Lisa.

Just to put my tuppence in (although quite a lot of what I am going to say has already been said):

Based on the training footage we have seen so far, I would definitely put Tom at the top of the leader board. He looks very comfortable with both dances.

I am guessing Rachel will come next. I am not expecting to be wowed by her waltz personally (I found the foxtrot a bit dull) but I am sure the judges will love it. Her paso looks a bit heavy-footed at the moment, tbh, but that could be early days as much as anything.

After that, it could be anyone's game. I actually think that Austin could have trouble with the paso. His footwork will be excellent, I have no doubt, but he still seems very stiff in the arms, which I think may affect his ability to create strong lines.

Lisa will do another lovely ballroom (and it will be interesting to see if she manages to overcome the gapping problem of last week - it didn't look too good from training) but I think she might fall victim to the curse of the female cha cha. Honestly, have we had one really good cha cha by a female celebrity this year? I can't think of one. And Lisa does have a record of struggling with fast latin dances.

I think quite a lot of people may be underestimating Christine's ability as well. She is probably the least consistent of the remaining dancers which means we could get anything. Going on past form, her salsa should be better than her tango, but going on the training we have seen, her tango looks very good (lovely flexed knees) and she appears to have only just started working on her salsa. And I think she is the one most likely to be affected by whether she dances latin or ballroom first. If they start with tango, she should be okay. She may have more problems switching into tango mood after the fun of the salsa. As a fan, I am hoping for something really quite stunning, but I would say that, wouldn't I?

So, at a guess I would put Lisa at the bottom of the leader board, with Austin and Christine fighting it out for third and fourth. As for the dance off, I am almost sure Lisa will be in it, but can't predict the other person. If it is anyone but Christine, Lisa will go. If Christine is there then again I have no idea as Lisa has a record of pulling off better dances in the dance off than the original competition.

Incidentally, if Christine does end up in last week's position (as predicted by FluffyBunnikins) - bottom of the leader board accompanied by excessive criticism by the judges because they think she should go - then I am pretty sure she will be voted through again if only because of the perceived injustice. If Lisa is bottom, then there is much more chance that Christine won't pick up the sympathy vote and things are far more open.

Wow, that was a bit of a screed. Sorry for that, but it does illustrate just how tight the competition is at the moment, I think.

Re Rachels popularity ........last week she could have got the bottom public vote and still avoided the dance off with 7 point so her her vote is a bit of an unknown at the moment as since her dance off experience she has been top of the board. Equally Tom's vote has not been tested at all as he has never been below 3rd on the board and could be getting a low public vote but still going through. If this is true then his position will get more and more precarious. I think Rachel and Lisa could very well be polling bottom 2 with the public, week after week.

Don't think it makes that much difference to be honest. She's out of the studio by 8pm so she's hardly home stupidly late and doesn't have to get up early. She's still managing to fit in something like 6hrs training a day which is not to be sniffed at.

I don't see her job as a particular disadvantage.

The only reason I didnt include Kelly is because she isnt the reigning champion and therefore I dont thing it would matter at all if she danced with someone other than Brendan.

I agree that at the moment Christine isnt as good as Rachel but brings more personality onto the dance floor and is therefore more enjoyable to watch as was Jodie, and if she is 'more popular' with the public than Rachel I think its a shame if she doesnt go through.

Still think it will be Lisa and probably Rachel in the dance off unless there is a bunching of people on the same scores.

Rachel and Vincent
Paso doble - 36
Waltz - 39
Total = 75 (first)

Tom and Camilla
Samba - 36
Waltz - 38 (first tens)
Total = 74 (joint second)

Austin and Erin
Paso doble - 35
Foxtrot - 39
Total = 74 (joint second)

Lisa and Brendan
Cha Cha Cha - 33
Foxtrot - 36 (with one ten)
Total = 69

Christine and Matthew
Salsa - 32
Tango - 34
Total = 66

Lisa and Christine in dance off.

Christine voted off.

Rachel 1st
Tom 2nd
Lisa 3rd
Austin 4th
Christine 5th


Unfortunately (because it’s ruining the show for me) I don't get Rachel and her sudden improvement and think the judges are over marking and she will be top of the leader board. I think because of this Rachel is safe and it will be Lisa and one other in the dance off.

Totally totally agree.

Same I can still see Rachel being bottom (or 2nd to last) of the public vote; despite being on top of the leaderboard.

reginald, I can't see this either and most people I know who do "get" her have supported her from the beginning.

Having said that I remember during IDA a Forum Member went to a live show and he came back and posted about how different everything seems live rather than on the TV. One of the Nancys was being slated on the forums and this FM said she was absolutely amazing to watch live. He was totally amazed by it.

I just have a tiny doubt about this and would love to hear from anyone who has been lucky enough to get to a live show to see whether it gave them a different perspective.

If you think Lisa is going to be 4th with the judges, she'd get 2 points from then, plus 2 from the public, making 4, she'd definitely be in the dance off.

Also, in your scenario, Austin and Tom are likely to score 7 or more, so they wouldn't be in the dance off either. Neither of them could both score 6.

So by your figures, Lisa and Rachel would be in the dance off.

I read somewhere- the 'panic stations' thread I think- from someone who had a friend in the studio on Saturday night, that the dances look completely different on TV to how they look in the studio, and that the audience were stunned by how effortless Rachel looked (not a word for word quote- but it was definitely along those lines).... So maybe that's the case.

Re Rachel's popularity... I do think her votes will have picked up over the last couple of weeks. Whether it's enough I don't know. Lisa may well get a surge of publis support this week- she's obviously very low at the moment and that alone is enough to make some people pick up the phone and vote.

Last week I wrote on a similar thread that I wasn't convinced by the drivel spouted reasoning Jodie had great public support; that she would gain more votes from ex. John supporters; that she would amass enough votes to escape the dance-off. What a load of garbage, it appears, that turned out to be.

This week I'm not convinced that Christine will continue to enjoy even greater support. I accept she has demonstrated a strong core nuggett (those that will vote for her regardless) of support. And that her overall support (core plus swing) is, at the moment, probably greater than that of Rachel or Lisa (though less than that of the two boys). I think her overall support is static at best. If she doesn't dance really, really well this week I expect she will lose some of her swing voters. I think it's fair to say she is perceived as the weakest dancer left. Finishing last or 2nd from bottom will just reinforce this view. She will not be gaining any new support as a result.

Rachel, in contrast, I believe has gained support. And is probably closing the deficit between her and Christine. I expect she is now (rightly) being perceived as a serious contender for the Glitterball. If she continues to pummel the others in this weeks dances, she will continue to build on her support. Admittedly, she is still the underdog. But in the final, there will be millions of votes cast - many by the undecided; by those who are swayed by judges comments, by those who vote based on dance alone, by those who simply vote on final night, possibly tuning in for the first time. Bottom line, it's still all to play for - no out and out front-runner this year. I'm not as pessimistic about Rachel's chances as many on here seem to be.

I don't think anyone can afford a weak dance from hereon in.

Well Jodie's voters have got to go somewhere

Not necessarily. They may have a slight favourite but not be interested enough to vote.

If Austin goes out, I won't vote for anyone else.

I've just posted that I wasn't convinced by the arguement that John's vote would go to Jodie (read my first paragraph). Why do you think I'm anymore convinced by your implication that most of Jodie's vote will go to Christine?

I'm like this now, and I was an avid Jodie supporter. The two I want in the final are Christine & Tom. If only one of them gets there and are up against Rachel, I will be deffo voting for whoever it is out of Tom and Christine that gets there, if that happens. This isnt JUST because Jodie is supporting Christine and Ian is supporting Tom, but because I really really like them.

Or no where....

I know people in the past too who once their favourite has gone out have just voted for whoever they thought was best on the night.

You all seem to be forgetting that thousands, perhaps millions of viewers haven't cast a single vote yet! I know a lot of people who don't start voting until around this stage of the comp so they can get a good balanced view of who are the better dancers or who entertains them the most. So I think this week we will truly get to see who is popular and who isn't. Remember last year when Kenny kept getting through week on week despite being bottom or near bottom of the leaderboard? Like Christine many thought he might make the final but when it got down to the last 5 - out he went! And rightly so. When it gets down tho this stage of the comp, the viewers usually know what to do!

I've said somewhere else this week that a lot of people aren't voting yet. Many won't vote until the semi and final. So whatever polls are floating about NOW, they are all misleading as any of them could gain more support, conversely lose it.

This really is the crunch week I reckon. First time doing two dances, and only 3 getting called out first. Wherever they are on the board, this will show who actually is getting the votes and who the viewers are enjoying watching the most.

As far as the scores go I don't like to predict.