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Voting maths: person who gets the most public votes in semi could still go out
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jonah_242
08-12-2008
Last night I think Austin got the most votes and still went out. Look at the Maths below. The only way Austin would have made the semis was if he got the most votes, then Lisa, then Tom and then Rachel IN THAT EXACT order.

So if you voted for Austin your vote would have meant nothing. You wasted your money.

You would have had to do something like vote 3 times for Austin, twice for Lisa and once for Tom for it to have any affect whatsoever.

AT THIS STAGE OF THE COMPETITION THE ONLY WAY THE BOTTOM COUPLE WILL GO THROUGH IS IF THE PUBLIC VOTE IS AN EXACT REVERSE OF THE JUDGES SCOREBOARD

This is what could have happened (first score for leader board, second score for votes)
Rachel = 4 + 2= 6
Tom = 3 + 3 = 6
Lisa = 2 + 1 = 3
Austin = 1 + 4 =5

Same for next week: The person in 3rd place could still go out even if they get the most votes!!
So if this happens:

Rachel = 3 + 2 = 5
Lisa = 2 + 1 = 3
Tom = 1 + 3 = 4

It would be Tom v Lisa in the dance off and Tom would probably lose. So if you want Tom to go through and he finishes bottom this week you need to vote twice for Tom but ALSO VOTE FOR THE PERSON IN SECOND PLACE!!!

And Lisa, lets presume she gets the least votes each week since she is always in the dance off…..if she dances really well and comes first she could get knocked out as she will likely face Rachel in the dance off….but if Lisa dances ‘ok’ and comes second, she could still go through if Rachel does better than her and then she can beat Tom in the dance off.

The judges have too much say.
We could have a Rachel v Lisa final even though Tom would probably win if it was just down to public votes.
trevvytrev21
08-12-2008
Thanks! Makes more sense for me now.
Tissy
08-12-2008
Originally Posted by jonah_242:
“D PLACE!!!

And Lisa, lets presume she gets the least votes each week since she is always in the dance off…..if she dances really well and comes first she could get knocked out as she will likely face Rachel in the dance off….but if Lisa dances ‘ok’ and comes second, she could still go through if Rachel does better than her and then she can beat Tom in the dance off.
”

Wouldn`t the judges have a problem knocking someone out who came top of their leaderboard?

Unless both of their best dances scored the same as happened last saturday.
Dr. Jan Itor
08-12-2008
Originally Posted by jonah_242:
“Last night I think Austin got the most votes and still went out. Look at the Maths below. The only way Austin would have made the semis was if he got the most votes, then Lisa, then Tom and then Rachel IN THAT EXACT order.

So if you voted for Austin your vote would have meant nothing. You wasted your money.

You would have had to do something like vote 3 times for Austin, twice for Lisa and once for Tom for it to have any affect whatsoever.

AT THIS STAGE OF THE COMPETITION THE ONLY WAY THE BOTTOM COUPLE WILL GO THROUGH IS IF THE PUBLIC VOTE IS AN EXACT REVERSE OF THE JUDGES SCOREBOARD

This is what could have happened (first score for leader board, second score for votes)
Rachel = 4 + 2= 6
Tom = 3 + 3 = 6
Lisa = 2 + 1 = 3
Austin = 1 + 4 =5

Same for next week: The person in 3rd place could still go out even if they get the most votes!!
So if this happens:

Rachel = 3 + 2 = 5
Lisa = 2 + 1 = 3
Tom = 1 + 3 = 4

It would be Tom v Lisa in the dance off and Tom would probably lose. So if you want Tom to go through and he finishes bottom this week you need to vote twice for Tom but ALSO VOTE FOR THE PERSON IN SECOND PLACE!!!

And Lisa, lets presume she gets the least votes each week since she is always in the dance off…..if she dances really well and comes first she could get knocked out as she will likely face Rachel in the dance off….but if Lisa dances ‘ok’ and comes second, she could still go through if Rachel does better than her and then she can beat Tom in the dance off.

The judges have too much say.
We could have a Rachel v Lisa final even though Tom would probably win if it was just down to public votes.”

Theoretically the person at the bottom of the judges leaderboard can top the public vote and still be in the dance-off in any week, but there is only one possible order of the public vote that will do this. It's just that the less couples you have the less possible orders there are for the public vote and so the more likely it is that it can happen.

Unfortunately for Austin the one order which would see him come top and still be in the dance-off this week was Austin, Tom, Rachel then Lisa, which was the most likely order if Austin came top. It didn't have to be Austin, Lisa, Tom Rachel to save him.

I do agree that there shouldn't be a dance-off at this stage though. The judges have much more of a say than the public in the last few weeks before the final, and I also think the dance-off is unfair once they are doing two dances a week as if favours a couple with one great dance and one poor dance over a more consistent couple with two good dances.
Phil2003
08-12-2008
What happens if they end up level? They could all end up with 4 points overall
starsailor
08-12-2008
Originally Posted by Phil2003:
“What happens if they end up level? They could all end up with 4 points overall ”

Doesn't the public vote trump it in that case? (Ie the top public vote would be through, with the others in the dance off)
KipsKaz
08-12-2008
Originally Posted by Phil2003:
“What happens if they end up level? They could all end up with 4 points overall ”

It goes to who gets the most votes (hence the only way the person at the bottom could be saved).

I've been commenting about this scenario for a while. It possibly happened last year (can't prove for sure that Gethin got the most votes) and could well happen again this year.

Makes a mockery of the public vote really. Save your money and don't bother voting.
Endemoniada
08-12-2008
The really interesting scenario occurs if two couples are joint top.

I trust the BBC have thought that possibility through.
The_abbott
08-12-2008
Originally Posted by Endemoniada:
“The really interesting scenario occurs if two couples are joint top.

I trust the BBC have thought that possibility through. ”

Thats true if rachel and Lisa both get 76 points and Tom 75 he gets just 1 point and they get 3 whihc means even 3 points from teh voters puts him in the dance off!!
Babybloo
08-12-2008
Series 3 final is a good example of this. If I remember correctly the judges had them as

Zoe and Ian (3 points)
Colin and Erin (2 points)
Darren and Lilia (1 point)

As Zoe got knocked out before the show dance the public voting must have been

Darren and Lilia (3 points + 1 point from the judges)= 4 points
Colin and Erin (2 points + 2 points from the judges)= 4 points
Zoe and Ian (1 point + 3 points from the judges) = 4 points

All couples are equal on 4 points therefore the public vote overrules the judges.
The_abbott
08-12-2008
Originally Posted by Babybloo:
“Series 3 final is a good example of this. If I remember correctly the judges had them as

Zoe and Ian (3 points)
Colin and Erin (2 points)
Darren and Lilia (1 point)

As Zoe got knocked out before the show dance the public voting must have been

Darren and Lilia (3 points + 1 point from the judges)= 4 points
Colin and Erin (2 points + 2 points from the judges)= 4 points
Zoe and Ian (1 point + 3 points from the judges) = 4 points

All couples are equal on 4 points therefore the public vote overrules the judges.”


but had there been a dance off would the judges have saved Colin over Zoe??
gorlagon
08-12-2008
Yes. I think this does skew it enough to make it a problem.

The actual problem, as I see it, and the one which gets everyone so riled up, is that the judges are voting on one night's dances (and one dance in the case of the dance off), while the public are mostly voting for their favourite over the whole series.

This is what leaves a bad taste in the mouth, does handicap some dancers on some weeks, and what gives viewers the overall feeling that *something* is unfair.

It's an anomaly in the system and it should be changed to drop the dance off once there are only X competitors left. However, this then leaves the producers with a problem. The Sunday show is enormously successful ratings-wise. How can they sustain a Sunday show with no dance off?

Rather than suggesting people don't vote, how about we try to think of ideas that would eliminate the late-stage dance-offs but retain enough interest in a Sunday show?
yohinnchild
08-12-2008
IMO thats what happened last year I think Gethin probably had the most viewer votes; but as overall Alesha had the most public/ Judge's votes got through.

If it was strictly down to the public/ judges scores - with no dance off i'm 100% sure Matt would've left last year

Its obvious (out of the three this year) Tom is getting the most votes - all he needs to do is get at least 2nd place to be in the final. if he's last then he'll only not be in the dance off if Rachel is bottom of the votes and Lisa is 2nd (assuming Rachel tops the judges scores)
Babybloo
08-12-2008
I personally think that there should be no dance off for the semis and then the final and it should be a 50/50 vote with the judges and the public but that's just my tuppence worth!
frell-tastic
08-12-2008
Is there definately a dance off this Saturday anyway?
The_abbott
08-12-2008
Is SCD the only show where you can get 0 votes and get to a final?? (not saying Lisa got 0 votes I'm just using it as a point).
Jan2555*GG*
08-12-2008
and you are all just realising this now ??? it is a distinct posibility that this happened last year in the semis. Gethin was bottom of the leadboard, even if he had got the highest public vote he needed Alesha (top of the board) to attract less votes than Matt (probably not going to happen) to avoid the dance off, so it will be nothing new if it happens again.........and its probably just happened to Austin too, he was getting a significant vote and as he was bottom of the board he probably got the most but still went home.

To avoid the dance off Austin needed Lisa to attract more votes than Rachel, she obviously didnt so this would mean that next week you could have.

Rachel 3 +2 = 5
Lisa 2 + 1 = 3
Tom 1 + 3 = 4

Lisa and Tom in the dance off.

Now I am not a Tom fan I must point out but I do accept that he is getting more votes than the girls, but he could still go home next saturday and after Gethin and Austin I would NOT lay any serious money against it not happening.
Psychosis
08-12-2008
I think there's a strong possibility next week of seeing Rachel the only one safe. I think it's fair to anticipate that Rachel gets more votes than Lisa, particularly after Brendan's hissy fit and Lisa joining in with the complaining too. It's also fair to assume that after the sensuality of her rumba, Rachel will top the leaderboard on the back of Vincent's AT. Whether Lisa or Tom takes second is up for debate.

So we'd be seeing a Lisa vs Tom dance off.
Tissy
08-12-2008
Has there ever been a winner that has been in the dance off 3 times?
Philly1234
08-12-2008
No, Rachel could be getting the least amount of public votes, and she still avoided the dance off:

Rachel 4 + 1 = 5
Tom 3 + 4 = 7
Lisa 2 + 2 = 4
Austin 1 + 3 = 4

There could easily be a tie for the leaderboard/public vote next week if the leaderboard stays the same.

I can understand the Austin fans feeling very cheated by this, though. I'm sure it feels like they're playing a game with the public vote. Now it's just a factor they have to counteract. All the John Sergeant voters got this, I'm guessing.

ETA: Not if the leaderboard stays the same, doh! I meant if Tom replaced Austin at the bottom of the leaderboard.
Last edited by Philly1234 : 08-12-2008 at 16:10
Jan2555*GG*
08-12-2008
Originally Posted by Tissy:
“Has there ever been a winner that has been in the dance off 3 times?”


NO....obviously the dance off hasnt been around for all series, its usually an indication of popularity ofcourse. Last year Gethin did get into the dance off until the semi final even though he was quite often middle of the board in the earlier weeks.

Matt was in the dance off once before the semis when Penny went home

Alesha was not really in a vulnerable postion on the board ever BUT did go into the dance off in the quarter finals but the vote was skewed that week probably because Matt had his problem week and may have attracted a sympathy vote. Gethin and Matt went straight through and Alesha danced off with Letita.

So short answer no but the dance off hasnt been round long enough to really compare.
SmileyCharlie
08-12-2008
Some inside info on the votes from my friend at the Beeb. It was this order

Judges Points

Rachel = 4
Tom = 3
Lisa = 2
Austin = 1

Viewer Points

Tom = 4
Austin = 3
Lisa = 2
Rachel = 1

Overall Points

Tom = 7
Rachel = 5
Austin =4 (finished in 3rd place due to viewer votes)
Lisa = 4

Hope that info helps everyone. Naughty me for telling but hey what other use is a insider for!!
Philly1234
08-12-2008
Right, that matches my suspicions.
CASPER1066
08-12-2008
yep.....makes sense.......
missfrankiecat
08-12-2008
Originally Posted by Jan2555*GG*:
“and you are all just realising this now ???”

Well, Craig Revel Horwood doesn't seem to have realised it yet, judging from his inane comments on Breakfast tv this morning. He seemed to think the fact that Austin was in the dance-off meant the public hadn't voted for him. Or he was pretending he did. Wouldn't want the public to actually realise it's pretty pointless wasting your money on voting, now would we?
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