This is what I suspected to be the case.

There was only one way out of 24 possible permutations that Austin could have come top of the vote and done the dance off with Lisa.

Oh I so agree that from Craig did annoy me you would think from 6 series he might have got it right by now wouldnt you.

I'm sure that John got this and realised that he was very unlikely to win so left before the humiliation of the dance off.

Is this for real?

I can understand Tom being top of viewer votes - his foxtrot was so lovely and he charmed so many people standing next to Lisa after Brendan's strop - so many people at work today have called him the perfect package.

Austin was slightly off the boil after the previous week's barnstorming Paso so can understand him coming second.

I must admit though that I'm surprised Lisa is more popular with the viewers than Rachel - maybe people felt sorry for her after Brendan threw the wobbly.

Very interesting....

I would not be suprised if Tom did get the most votes last night.
Ive not been a fan of his until about 3 weeks ago and now hes totally won me over. Hes even made me like Camilla which none of her previous celeb partners have managed! He was lovely on saturday too. Im pritty sure im not the only one that warmed to him either.

I am a bit suprised if Lisa beat Rachel but then again Lisa does wear her heart on her sleave moreso then Rachel and maybe people warm to her more for that reason?

I do agree that there probably should not be a dance off at this stage, but it is not rocket science and it is obvious that it is possible for a celeb to be popular and still get knocked out. Such is life. I don't understand why this is such a surprise, it was the case to a certain extent prior to the dance off being introduced and is I think a bit more likely now.

I liked Austin and voted for him on Saturday, but was not surprised to see him go anyway: it was always going to be a long shot.

The most popular dancer couldn't get eliminated before!

I don't mean to be rude but is SmileyCharlie reliable?

Well, reliable or not, it matches mathematically with what's gone on for the last few weeks.

Same with me. I posted exactly the same scores immediately after the Saturday show of what I thought would happen. All this - Austin was top didn't ring true with me as Tom had just as much of the 'totty' vote and he was the better dancer on Saturday. Folks who like Lisa would be voting like crazy to save her from dance-off. Rachel fans would assume she as safe.

That's what the maths had to be - and yes I think he's reliable he's provided insider info on other programmes too!

Going on what looks like happening next week - I' putting my money on the following

Rachel 3(J) + 1(P)=4
Tom 2(J) + 3(P) =5
Lisa 1(J) + 2(P) = 3

Tom through as of right

Dance off 4:0 in favour of Rachel

Final

Rachel top with Judges
Tom top with public - Tom wins!

and yes I think he's reliable he's provided insider info on other programmes too!

I think he's a she

Done some digging and charlie claimed to have info about how the vote was going on 'I'd do Anything'.

She said Jessie was leading every week, (by a large margin some weeks) sam 2nd and Jodie 3rd.

As those who watched will know, Jodie won. So either there was a big turnaround in the final, or the earlier figures were wrong.

I'm dubious. Sorry charlie.

,,and the other comination that is equally possible is -


Austin top with the public 4pts
Tom 2nd
Rachel 3rd
Lisa 4th.

This would also have led to an Austin v Lisa dance-off.

I'm pretty sure this is how it's going to turn as well.

We've debated this a lot on this thread:

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...d.php?t=944172

I think it's stupid and unfair. Craig this morning really annoyed me with his ignorance be it true or false.

Maybe instead of having a dance-off they could have the losing couple do a farewell dance (a properly choreographed one, maybe their best from the series or a new one).

Great thread and agree with the poster who said that John realized that this would happen as the number of couples dropped. The BBC should publish the full results at the end, maybe they need to move to some kind of PR transferable vote system?

Finding it hard to look forward to the semi and the final now, which just look like being back-to-back victory laps for Rachel.

If I was a conspiracy theorist, I might think that Rachel is Strictly's apology to Vincent for his public humiliation last year....

The most popular goes through.

The system is complex. it does give the judges a strong say but the public vote decides that result and the public vote also decides the vote if the best girl dancer isn't at least second in the public vote.

The only circumstance when the most popular person doesn't avoid the dance off is if they come last with the judges and the other two are in the reverse order with the public that they were with the judges .

Thats entirely logical - the worst dancer shouldn't have a pass into the final on some other factor and the best dancer shouldn't escape the dance off if they are the least popular.

The conclusion may be right but there is no reason to support that calculation. Rachel was more popular than Lisa last week and is on all polls. Tom does get through on the public vote as long as Lisa and Rachel both don't beat him. He only fails to get there if he is last with the judges which seems entirely fair. Lisa might survive if she out performs Rachel.

The male voting bias may take Tom to an automatic win but on the other hand both girls are capable of out dancing him so they could win or at least make the result look bizarre.

Much more likely. After all, he wouldn't want to give the impression that the judges might have voted out a popular contestant above their own, less popular favourites, now would he?

Your answer is to try and manipulate the voting so someone goes through by voting for someone else so that they end up in the dance off with the best dancer. Your unstated aim is to get the worst dancer to the final.

The rules set up a situation where the best dancer only avoids the dance off if they are not last with the public and the most popular
dancer only faces the dance off if they are the worst dancer and the best dancer is the least popular.

The show rules make complete sense. There is no reason why in a dancing competion the least good dancer should make the final automatically for doing something else like being JS or wearing a string vest. There's also no reason why a really unpopular best dancer shouldn't face the dance off.

The alternative produces a final where the least good can face the second best and still win with no real competion which essentially turns the show into I'm A Celebrity with a few months of irrelevant dancing beforehand.

Not necessarily. if one couple had 36 and 35 and one had 31 and 39 the second couple would have a 39 dance for the final facing a 36. Thats if you vote on the dance in the dance off. If you bring in other factors you might include lots of other things on top of who had the highest total of the night.....like record or allowing for the different dances or anything that was accidental or a poor choice of music or an odd mark by someone...........

The other side of the same argument is that if the dance off wasn't there it would be impossible to get rid of JS until his vote collapsed which it might not. By that stage there would probably only be male dancers left so we could have had JS, Tom, Austin SF next week with the people with the best marks watching from the audience.

But surely if that's the argument then the public vote should go, Strictly Come Dancing scrapped and the original Come Dancing, where judges rule surpreme, should take it's place?

Really they already do rule supreme. They can sit and add 1 + 4 and 4 + 1 as well as (some) people here, and figure out how to work things, if that's what they want to do. If we basically know who's top and bottom of the public votes, so do they.

Your argument seems to be that everyone who votes for the person at the bottom of the leaderboard can only be doing so for reasons of personality and not of dancing, which is untrue. Whilst they may be more qualified to critique a dance than the average viewer, the judges are only giving opinions rather than giving a definitive order of quality, so it is perfectly reasonable for people to disagree with this and vote for the person at the bottom for dancing reasons. If you look at the individual judge's scores you will often find at least one of them will have given their lowest score to someone other than the person at the bottom of the leaderboard, so if one of the judges thinks that person doesn't deserve to go then why can't the public think the same and vote for them on the basis of their dancing?

Obviously the public can vote through people who aren't very good which isn't ideal, but the alternative is that people believe that they cannot get their favourite through even if they top the public vote which is just going to see people lose interest and turn off. The public need to have the balance of power in the voting to keep interest in the show alive, even if that means what the judges might consider undeserving winners.

Early on, I think the dance off is needed, but by the quarter final stage generally only the best remain, and if a poor dancer hasn't been in the bottom 2 already, they're not going to land there in the quarters/semis. The dance off should be scrapped then in favour of pure public vote - hence the entertainment factor of the series is maintained, and it's difference from Come Dancing.