Voting maths: person who gets the most public votes in semi could still go out

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River Man

09-12-2008

I felt the same during the final of IDA, Golden anemone.
I didn't vote, but did give a little cheer when Jodie won and scuppered CM's and ALW's plans.

I guess all I'm saying is that in my experience 90% of inside info posted on forums is rubbish.
Charlie has clearly been in the other 10% and given good info before,
When it comes to voting figures 99% of leaks are rubbish imo.

Is Charlie in the 1% that are true. I still have my suspicions.

Even if they're true, it still seems it's close between Lisa and Rachel in the public vote.
If Rachel is top and Tom bottom, which looks the most likely outcome given the dances, then Rachel only needs to be 2nd in the public vote to be in the final and leave Tom and Lisa to fight it out in the dance-off.

Given that, Tom and Camilla's choice of the Jive seems very risky to me.

pasodabble

09-12-2008

This reminds me of the Pop Idol forum during the first series. I know I shouldn't be admitting to watching Pop Idol or even reading reality TV forums as far back as 2001...

Anyway... someone used to post on the forums with "insider" information, and this person said that Gareth Gates and Rosie Ribbons were way ahead in the voting and were definites for the final 2, which made sense as they were the two most hyped contestants from the group stage. When Rosie was knocked out in the final 6 this informant said that her vote collapsed as she'd chosen a song she couldn't sing and got mauled by the judges. Sounded plausible... then in the final Will Young beat Gareth Gates and our informant explained that Darius Danesh's votes all went to Will, which again sounded plausible although one wondered how anyone could know that the x million extra calls for Will were from people who had voted for Darius.

But most people believed this person, as they couldn't imagine anyone making all that stuff up/passing off their opinions as fact. Until ITV/Freemantle decided to release a Pop Idol annual, with the voting percentages of each show - Rosie Ribbons was never ahead, and Will Young was ahead of Gareth Gates in all the weeks before we got our first informant post.

I'm afraid I find SmileyCharlie's posts strangely familiar...

NoNoDrama

09-12-2008

Why do Gethin fans conveniently forget that his dances were RUBBISH in the Semi Final last year instead of insisting he was stitched up to let Alesha win? Do we know he finished top of the public vote? All we know is that the week before Alesha fell into the dance-off due to being presumed safe and due to matt-di cry gate. There were also reports of engaged tones during the ITT show when Alesha appeared on the week following her dance-off. She would have had a massive lead going into the semi and her fans would have not been complacent. It's likely she topped the vote. She would have also beat Gethin in the final no problems. Matt Di put in an awesome display in the final, wow factor dances, got endless judges praise, but still couldn't take her down!

As for the morality of letting the public vote when it's known it could have no affect what-so-ever , that is a different matter.

Servalan

09-12-2008

Originally Posted by River Man:
“Still dubious I'm afraid Charlie.
I followed IDA closely and you only said after the final that there was a surge in voting for Jodie. Not before.
I also find it hard to believe she picked up the majority of Sam's votes.
The natural place for her votes were surely for the other teenager in the final, Jessie.
I'd be very surprised if Jodie wasn't leading the public vote from very early on and just held on in the final with ALW and CM both clearly pushing Jessie as hard as they could.

I accept you've given inside info about job offers, but that's very different to how the voting is going.
That's incredibly sensitive information and it's very very rare for that to leak.

Also when you say "Apparently this season is all wrapped up now and baring him dropping out Tom has won.", that's clearly not the case.
If he's bottom this week, which looks quite possible given the dances he's doing, he could still be in the dance-off and voted out even if he tops the public vote, which I'm sure he will.

If you're right and the Beeb are annoyed that they won't have a competitive final then one way of ensuring one is having Rachel and Lisa fighting it out.
That would be too close to call, as you say yourself.

A Tom v Lisa or Rachel final is a non event. Tom wins.”

Whereas a Lisa vs Rachel final is an even bigger non-event: the publi's favourite has been knocked out - again - so no-one watches.

Fatima502

10-12-2008

Do the judges know the actual public voting order from the previous week ?

tabithakitten

10-12-2008

Originally Posted by NoNoDrama:
“Why do Gethin fans conveniently forget that his dances were RUBBISH in the Semi Final last year instead of insisting he was stitched up to let Alesha win? Do we know he finished top of the public vote? All we know is that the week before Alesha fell into the dance-off due to being presumed safe and due to matt-di cry gate. There were also reports of engaged tones during the ITT show when Alesha appeared on the week following her dance-off. She would have had a massive lead going into the semi and her fans would have not been complacent. It's likely she topped the vote. She would have also beat Gethin in the final no problems. Matt Di put in an awesome display in the final, wow factor dances, got endless judges praise, but still couldn't take her down!

As for the morality of letting the public vote when it's known it could have no affect what-so-ever , that is a different matter.”

1) No we don't. But the fact that he could have done is enough for me. The public's favourite shouldn't get the boot when the judges' favourite is guaranteed a final place.

2) Not any likelier than Gethin topping it to be honest. He was obviously popular as he'd never been a dance off untilit was inevitable (as it was that night). She was popular too. Her dance off blip came on the night of "Foxtrot Gate" and her voters were probably given a kick up the backside. Either one of them topping the public vote is equally likely in my view. As for Alesha beating Gethin comfortably in the final, if she beat him in the public vote the previous week then - yes, obviously. If not, then no. So an even chance I'd say.

Servalan

10-12-2008

Originally Posted by Veri:
“Servalan's complaint in some earlier posts was that the producers were telling the judges what to do.

Now the "problem" seems to be that the judges aren't doing what the producers want.”

Oh, and BTW, Veri - there is a difference between the Strictly producers and "BBC bosses" as referenced in the earlier post.

The BBC has so many layers of management - and they all have an opinion ...

So my critique of the Strictly producers remains - they are still inept!

JamieHT

10-12-2008

Originally Posted by Servalan:
“Whereas a Lisa vs Rachel final is an even bigger non-event: the publi's favourite has been knocked out - again - so no-one watches. ”

Fewer people may watch, but at least the result wouldn't be very predicatable.

I have to say though, that now there's only one person I'd like to win. Whereas 2 and a half weeks ago there were 4 people I would've been happy to see win. Stupid voting system!!

JamieHT

11-12-2008

Apologies for speeling mistake in previous post.

I also want to say that I will believe SmileyCharlie until we have a reason not to.

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