Whenever the special has been filmed after the main series, the series winner gets the trophy- Tom to win
Following the start of the tour, the xmas winner that year was lined up to take part in the tour- Jill, Tom or Rachel to win
The winner that year was also someone who hadn't been in the current series- a reminder to people of who he was? Jill to win
Of the Xmas winning dances, there have been
Quickstep: 2
AS: 1
Jive: 1
Lisa , Jill or Kelly
Three of four winning dances have been ballroom: Jill, Alesha, Tom or Lisa
Three of the four winners had already won a trophy before: Alesha, Jill or Tom
When Darren returned with two trophies under his belt, he won the vote to get his third: Jill
Three of the four winners were male: Tom
My prediction- Alesha to win, with Jill and Tom both doing well.