Today's poll shows Conservative support is holding firm, with 83% of supporters saying they do not expect to change their mind before polling day.
By contrast, only 69% of Lib Dems and 68% of Labour voters say they will stick with their current choice. Almost a third of people supporting Labour say they might end up backing another party instead.
Silly thing to say. What is there to be accurate on? The vote doesn't happen until 6th May.
It's like describing a football pools forecast for next weeks fixtures as "spot on"
No, It's not a silly thing to say.
usually prediction markets are very efficient..this is not football, you have to understand the relationship between information flow and efficient markets, this is how traders make their money everyday.
betfair is very accurate...prediction markets are all predicting a minority govt by Dave...he is still going to be PM
What is the protocol involved for a party to form a minority Govt? I mean how can they decide to form a minority Govt if Gordon Brown refuses to stand down. This hung parliament scenario is scary because it's so damn confusing!
A post on politicalbetting from a very well placed source
Interesting if polls tonight show a Conservative boost. It would provide more evidence that for some reason the Conservatives seem to drop points over weekend polling.
Wow!:eek: That could potentially result in the Lib Dems picking up a seats like Newcastle Upon Tyne North (#78 on their target list) and Newcastle Upon Tyne East (#84 on their target list) from Labour!
In areas like Newcastle and Liverpool where the LibDems run the local Council they could be in a strong position to gain some seats from Labour.
What is the protocol involved for a party to form a minority Govt? I mean how can they decide to form a minority Govt if Gordon Brown refuses to stand down. This hung parliament scenario is scary because it's so damn confusing!
Betfair currenly have the Tories winning a majority at 2.91, more or less 2/1, which is equal to the longest they have ever been, it's the longest they have ever been - they came in just before the last debate, then went out again to where they reside now.
The price says they are twice as likely not to get a majority as get one.
Comments
Betfair is a betting website - Tories usually have more money so probably bet more.
Maybe just wishful thinking - perhaps John McCririck should host the election night coverage.
Classic. Can I quote that in a signature?
This thread is about OPINION POLLS conducted by reputable posters.
Betfair is a betting site - so there is nothing scientific about their figures at all (it just depends who bets there)!
My comment was in jest- but the Betfair figures should not be on this thread as they are off topic (Comres fine - but not Betfair).
bumps
Shows LibDem taking big gains from Labour in the North.
Someone on Twitter says the ComRes poll tonight will be "very interesting & slightly unexpected", not sure how true that is.
"slightly unexpected" --> swing back towards Labour?
betfair is very accurate...prediction markets are all predicting a minority govt by Dave...he is still going to be PM
"Very accurate" ?
Silly thing to say. What is there to be accurate on? The vote doesn't happen until 6th May.
It's like describing a football pools forecast for next weeks fixtures as "spot on"
No, It's not a silly thing to say.
usually prediction markets are very efficient..this is not football, you have to understand the relationship between information flow and efficient markets, this is how traders make their money everyday.
What is the protocol involved for a party to form a minority Govt? I mean how can they decide to form a minority Govt if Gordon Brown refuses to stand down. This hung parliament scenario is scary because it's so damn confusing!
Very interesting.:)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7109811.ece
A post on politicalbetting from a very well placed source
Conservatives: 36% (+4%)
Lib Democrats: 28% (-3%)
Labour: 27% (-1%)
BBC Election Seation Calculator
Conservatives: 292
Labour: 246
Lib Democrats: 83
Others: 29
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/04/populus-tories-36-2-libdems-28-3-labour-27-1.html
good, is it just me or do the tories always seem to do worse over the weekends
Interesting if polls tonight show a Conservative boost. It would provide more evidence that for some reason the Conservatives seem to drop points over weekend polling.
Bookies aren't stupid or they'd all be broke.
They are pretty well informed people.
I've seen that user post on there before and he/she seems pretty reliable.
In areas like Newcastle and Liverpool where the LibDems run the local Council they could be in a strong position to gain some seats from Labour.
Good explantion on this site.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
Betfair currenly have the Tories winning a majority at 2.91, more or less 2/1, which is equal to the longest they have ever been, it's the longest they have ever been - they came in just before the last debate, then went out again to where they reside now.
The price says they are twice as likely not to get a majority as get one.
Conservatives: 33% (n/c)
Labour: 29% (+1%)
Lib Democrats: 28% (-1%)
Fieldwork 26-27 April 2010; sample: 1,598
BBC Election Seation Calculator
Labour: 287
Conservatives: 246
Lib Democrats: 87
Others: 29
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm
http://today.yougov.co.uk/
Seats from Electoral Calculus: LAB: 280, CON 249, LD 89, OTH 14.