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what happens to Greece if they default and leave the Euro?

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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 4,458
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    So what happens when you elect a government to whom no one will lend any money ?

    The markets are already not lending us any money. And the money being lent by governments is mostly being used to pay interest on debt to banks (mostly foreign banks, I should add).

    So I'm not sure what your question is...I have already admitted that I don't know how a default will affect tax receipts (although I believe that a big part of the damage is already happening - in effect, we have already defaulted)...I'm not sure what else you expect me to say.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 4,458
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    Which is precisely why I feel that the debt needs to be frozen (ring fenced - whatever) so that the further systematic reforms to route out the corruption and other issues that you have acknowedged exist that would put the country on a better playing field for the future can be embarked upon.

    Once this has been done then it would be reasonable to start paying back the debt even if it took 100 years to do so.

    Well, that is actually the position of SYRIZA, which in a previous post you called 'extreme'.

    I can reassure you that there is nothing extreme about SYRIZA...the BBC insist on calling them the 'far left', but their politics are very moderate and if they were ever in government they are likely to just follow the same route that the other centrists parties have followed.

    In my opinion, the two things that differentiates them from PASOK/ND are: a) they are inexperienced and give off the impression that they don't really know what they are doing yet (I don't think they expected to be this close to government); b) they are free from the baggage of corruption that the two other parties are infested with.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    angel1ka wrote: »
    So I'm not sure what your question is..y.

    What happens if the Greece government goes bankrupt, no one else lends it any new money, and there's still not enough money raised from tax revenue to cover spending ? (all of which now seem possible).
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    angel1ka wrote: »
    they are inexperienced and give off the impression that they don't really know what they are doing yet (I don't think they expected to be this close to government);

    This Tsipras looks inexperienced. He obviously made some form of election statement (for the next one) that might get internal votes but looks really bad outside.

    Well if we don't understand the Greeks, do they understand us?

    Unlike with English speaking nations, there is a language barrier. I guess with the internet and so on understanding other cultures will correct itself over time but seemingly not yet.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    What happens if the Greece government goes bankrupt, no one else lends it any new money, and there's still not enough money raised from tax revenue to cover spending ? (all of which now seem possible).

    It seems to me as if we all live an illusion since all governments take debts. If the Greek actual budget is now balanced may they reflect the living standard one could have with total austerity.

    I keep on saying to my gf we will all be Greece further down the line.

    Angela (M) wants correctly to save more, but like in France I guess the majority of the people remember the happier times so parties that want back on the credit trough and the illusion of endless growth at the expense of other countries.

    After China Africa might be the cheap labour provider until they want their share and then I guess the system will collapse.
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    MARTYM8MARTYM8 Posts: 44,710
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    What happens if the Greece government goes bankrupt, no one else lends it any new money, and there's still not enough money raised from tax revenue to cover spending ? (all of which now seem possible).

    They are never going to pay the debts back anyway. Better a few months of pain than a lifetime of slavery to the IMF, bondholders, EU and Germany!

    Anything they suffer will only be minor to what their grandparents suffered under the Nazis in WWII.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    They are never going to pay the debts back anyway.

    Agreed. So should the Greek government declare themselves bankrupt right now ?
    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    Better a few months of pain than a lifetime of slavery to the IMF, bondholders, EU and Germany!

    Would this 'few months of pain' be as a result of of adopting a new currency ?
    MARTYM8 wrote: »
    Anything they suffer will only be minor to what their grandparents suffered under the Nazis in WWII.

    Agreed.

    Almost anything would be 'minor' compared to occupation by foreign country.
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    alanwarwicalanwarwic Posts: 28,396
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    Like any revolution the young always look happy to bankrupt their parents.
    However its the young poor with poor parents who will be a majority led by some power mad and possibly soon to be tyrants.

    I imagine it does not always work out like that you you could certainly put a few medals on it.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 4,458
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Why should other countries pay what you don't want to pay? :confused:

    I meant to address this is issue earlier, but I forgot, and Philip Hammond on the radio just now reminded me....he is basically saying that Greeks want somebody else to pay for their mistakes. What a load of bollocks.

    Let me explain:

    First of all, there has never been an issue of not *wanting* to pay back the debts. The issue is whether it is realistic to pay them back, and under the current circumstances it doesn't look very likely. This is not just the opinion of some Greeks - many non-Greeks seem to agree.

    Secondly, I'm not sure why you, or Mr Hammond, think that Greeks want somebody else to pick up the tab. The Greek people were never asked whether they wanted the bailout loans or not. In fact, when our former prime minister suggested a referendum on the matter, panic spread across Europe, the government fell, and an unelected prime minister was appointed so the agreement could be voted through parliament as quickly (and, by the way, unconstitutionally) as possible.

    So I'm not sure why you are asking *me* 'why should other countries pay?'....you should rather be posing this question to your own political leaders, who despite the threats and the posturing always end up giving Greece the loans, regardless of whether the Greek people want these loans or not.

    Furthermore, and perhaps more bizarrely, so far they have been giving the loans to people who have proven time and time again to be incompetent and corrupt. Why? What is more, attached to these loans are terms that sink us further into financial dependency, and make it even more unlikely that we will ever be able to pay back the pile of debts ourselves. Again, why?

    It is very easy, you know, for Merkel to go around pretending to be 'tough' on Greece in order to appease her own electorate...it is very easy for her to use lazy stereotypes and tell the southern European to 'work harder' (are xenophobic statements like that acceptable in Germany?)...The fact of the matter is, however, that she, and other European leaders, actually seem anxious to hand over the money to Greece. WHY?

    Finally, perhaps the most important question you should be asking is this: why have governments got themselves into a position where debts to banks must always be paid back at all costs? I thought banks lent money with interest, because of the risk of non-repayment.....otherwise, what is the point of interest? Banks make trillions out of the business of lending, why are they not expected to face the losses when their risk-taking goes wrong? And another thing: if European governments allowed their taxpayers' money to be invested in risk-taking banks, why should they not now face the consequences? Just like the banks, the people who benefited from the risk-taking in the good times, should now be expected to suffer the losses in the bad times.

    It's not just the Greeks, you know, that need to face up to the consequences of their mistakes. So, Mr Hammond, Ms Merkel, Doc Shmok, and whoever else, please spare us the lessons in responsibility.
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    RelugusRelugus Posts: 12,044
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    Greece needs to reassert its culture and identity, and thus the rise in nationalism is in fact a healthy development.

    In life one should not rely or trust others, one can only trust oneself, the same is true of nations. Greece must look to itself and reject manipulative, facile institution's like the EU and NATO.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,060
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    angel1ka wrote: »
    Well, that is actually the position of SYRIZA, which in a previous post you called 'extreme'

    Extracts taken from his own words in Athens News with my comments in italics.

    The extreme pieces are state control of banks, taxation of the accumulated debt (whatever that is supposed to mean - how can you tax a negative?)and of high profits of businesses (which will lead to less inward investment) and other savings measures, such as the drastic reduction of spending on armaments. (The Turks would love that!)

    "reinstate all the laws that protect labour and the collective agreements."hardly taking Greece away from some of the issues that have contributed to the problem
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,060
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    This Tsipras looks inexperienced. He obviously made some form of election statement (for the next one) that might get internal votes but looks really bad outside.

    Well if we don't understand the Greeks, do they understand us?

    Unlike with English speaking nations, there is a language barrier. I guess with the internet and so on understanding other cultures will correct itself over time but seemingly not yet.

    Oh - so English and Germans never holidayed in Greece? I think those in tourist areas understand us very well. They do have Satellite TV and watch films with subtitles.

    Anyway after today's results it seems as if some of your fellow countrymen have also had enough of austerity.:eek:

    When's the next election in Germany?
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    When's the next election in Germany?

    Sept or Oct 2013
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    angel1ka wrote: »
    I meant to address this is issue earlier, but I forgot, and Philip Hammond on the radio just now reminded me....he is basically saying that Greeks want somebody else to pay for their mistakes. What a load of bollocks.

    Let me explain:

    First of all, there has never been an issue of not *wanting* to pay back the debts. The issue is whether it is realistic to pay them back, and under the current circumstances it doesn't look very likely. This is not just the opinion of some Greeks - many non-Greeks seem to agree.

    Secondly, I'm not sure why you, or Mr Hammond, think that Greeks want somebody else to pick up the tab. The Greek people were never asked whether they wanted the bailout loans or not.

    Do you think they asked me? :confused:

    And if you would have actually read what i have written, i am well aware that i have to face consequences based on elections held somewhere in the 1920's.

    My taxes also pay reparations to Israel and funnily enough far enough back i seem to be decent from jews and as far as i remember i haven't killed one personally.

    I have personally not installed Stalin's Eastern Block. To get the East on board we have to pay solidarity tax since more than 20 years.

    I also don't have a mortgage i can not afford or a huge car on debt. I also pay back the one credit card i have each month.

    Still I have to suffer the consequences of the credit crisis because i probably used services that Germany or Britain overspent on.

    As far as i can see from wiki the greek debts seem to fall in a democratic period.

    So i don't really see why the Greek people shouldn't be less or more responsible for their debts than any other nation? :confused:
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,060
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    Relugus wrote: »
    Greece needs to reassert its culture and identity, and thus the rise in nationalism is in fact a healthy development.

    In life one should not rely or trust others, one can only trust oneself, the same is true of nations. Greece must look to itself and reject manipulative, facile institution's like the EU and NATO.

    Greece has always kept its culture and identity. When you are in Greece (even parts of Falaraki, Rhodes which has been ruined by bars and sex clubs) you know that you are in Greece. Do not take a few images from a small part of Athens as a representation of the whole country.

    Long leisurely meals, independent bakeries and cake shops, chickens in the back garden, small fields, battered cars (even new ones), lip service to smoking bans (thank god!), lip service to seatbelt wearing, lip service to helmet wearing, use of little three wheeled tractor type vehicles running on 2 stroke engines. Old men sitting in bars passing the time away, women invariably wearing black keeping everywhere scrupulously clean. Small shops selling everything, A desire to see a restaurant customer go away full. The list is endless.

    As far as Nato is concerned, this is vital for Greece as it is in a very strategic position being at the edge of Europe.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    Relugus wrote: »
    Greece needs to reassert its culture and identity, and thus the rise in nationalism is in fact a healthy development.

    In life one should not rely or trust others, one can only trust oneself, the same is true of nations. Greece must look to itself and reject manipulative, facile institution's like the EU and NATO.

    That statement is meaningless pseudo logic. Why do you accept Britain then, or England, where you have to trust others?
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,060
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    Nick1966 wrote: »

    B*gger - I was hoping it might be in June. I hope she has had a wake up call. This cannot go on as the Eurozone is starved of growth.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    Oh - so English and Germans never holidayed in Greece? I think those in tourist areas understand us very well. They do have Satellite TV and watch films with subtitles.

    Anyway after today's results it seems as if some of your fellow countrymen have also had enough of austerity.:

    Of course you will see the rise of make debt again parties now over all in Europe.

    As i said above i consider the western system of building growth on debt as failed.

    Merkel will be at best in a great coalition next year. Most of Germany is lefty parties. The FDP her coalition partner is a joke now and dying. Bit like Britain in that respect where the liberals didn't do to well out of the coalition.

    My voting strategy btw is for stability in a crisis and if every one is oversaturated mix things up.
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    Nick1966Nick1966 Posts: 15,742
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    This cannot go on as the Eurozone is starved of growth.

    Be interesting to see by how much the UK economy has grown over the 5 years by the time of the next election in May 2015. That's if it's grown at all.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    B*gger - I was hoping it might be in June. I hope she has had a wake up call. This cannot go on as the Eurozone is starved of growth.

    And seemingly hooked on credit and an inability to calculate that this will end up further down in an even a bigger mess.

    But as long as the majority of voters is delusional it's ok, cause it's democracy. :D
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,060
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    Nick1966 wrote: »
    Be interesting to see by how much the UK economy has grown over the 5 years by the time of the next election in May 2015. That's if it's grown at all.

    Indeed - reliant as we are on the Eurozone but could be about to see French inward investment into the UK to avoid French tax rises? Different issue different board.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 1,060
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    And seemingly hooked on credit and an inability to calculate that this will end up further down in an even a bigger mess.

    But as long as the majority of voters is delusional it's ok, cause it's democracy. :D

    Not at all. If the ECB was lender of last resort if could utlliise quantitive easing and issue long term bonds. It has done the latter but not enough. If it all went wrong, the Eurozone is big enough to be pretty much self sufficient so even if the whole Eurozone became a basket case (unlikely) it could survive on its own without outside help - keeping Greece in with the Oil finds would be useful foresight.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 18,071
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    Not at all. If the ECB was lender of last resort if could utlliise quantitive easing and issue long term bonds. It has done the latter but not enough. If it all went wrong, the Eurozone is big enough to be pretty much self sufficient so even if the whole Eurozone became a basket case (unlikely) it could survive on its own without outside help - keeping Greece in with the Oil finds would be useful foresight.

    Are you sure that you understand what I mean? Doubtlessly the apocalypse isn't tomorrow.

    I am just not convinced states can do differently than your own household. You overspent all credit cards are maxed and then you decide to take on even more debts. Based on empirics as you arrived in the current situation the likelihood that you can get yourself out of close bankruptcy by inventing money and taking on more debt is low.

    What actually happens is because we are removed from taken on debts as the governments take them that we remember the good times and dont see how it happened.

    I just hope that the inevitable break down of this pseudo economy we have now will be after my death.

    Cant find anything on the greek oil you mention. Only olive oil, a greek oil tanker and price drops because of the greek election stuff comes up.
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    mRebelmRebel Posts: 24,882
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    Doc Shmok wrote: »
    Dunno, we have you and angelika saying it's all fine and Greece is no else than any other State.
    .

    We're not quite saying everythings fine with Greece, but the link I gave regarding the counyties economy pre-crisis, from the OECD, and the evidence given by angelka is more reliable than that supplied by some here. I mean, Greek railway cleaners on 60 grand a year! Nobody with any sense believes that. Come on, let's e real.
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    mRebelmRebel Posts: 24,882
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    C19th Fox wrote: »
    Extracts taken from his own words in Athens News with my comments in italics.

    The extreme pieces are state control of banks, taxation of the accumulated debt (whatever that is supposed to mean - how can you tax a negative?)and of high profits of businesses (which will lead to less inward investment) and other savings measures, such as the drastic reduction of spending on armaments. (The Turks would love that!)

    "reinstate all the laws that protect labour and the collective agreements."hardly taking Greece away from some of the issues that have contributed to the problem

    State control of banks is extreme? Didn't you notice that lack of state control of banks led to a pretty extreme situation?
    Taxation of business is extreme? This is getting silly.
    A reduction of spending on arms would be seen as extreme by Germany, as so much of the high Greek arms spending is with German companies, and Merkel insisted that Greek spending cuts should NOT include this.
    Turkey seeks to join the EU, and better relations with the west in general, so obviously they're not about to attack Greece.
    Greek labour laws did not cause the problem, banks who were so stupid they didn't notice lending yet more to Greece was risky were the culprits.
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