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The great Trisha odds mystery - here's my theory
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Rylan was the absolute hot favourite from the beginning.
Any serious money was placed on him quite early on and bookies dropped his odds to 1/4 on at one point,
Then the market stagnated and bookies were looking at a big loss as the forums and BBOTS was strongly indicative of a Rylan win.
Nobody else was being backed as it was a foregone conclusion, save for the odd bet on Speidy as the only other realistic contender to this.
How do you solve a problem like this as a bookie?
You need punters to back other housemates to mitigate your position.
How do you get people betting when nobody is betting?
By manipulating the market, that's how.
You choose a horse (or person in this case) who you know has absolutely no chance of winning and get people to back that person.
How do you get people backing that person?
1) Start some rumours. There were a few on here over the weekend that Trish had stood up to Speidy and was the new house hero for example
2) Drop the odds dramatically i.e. create a virtual steamer. Not as crazy as it sounds. When her odds started dropping rapidly, people will have backed her with the belief that somebody somewhere knows something and they are betting big on this.
Bookies don't lose anything on this, the odds on Rylan only drifted out slightly and bookies are limiting the amount you can place on him anyway.
If it works and punters start backing Trishia, it's money for nothing for the bookies. If it fails, they don't lose anything by trying.
The best example currently about the absurdity of it all is Paddy Power.
Trisha to Win odds 5/2 second favourite
Trisha to Go on Weds odds 5/2 second favourite
As many have said, the 5/2 odds for her to win are laughable.
Any serious money was placed on him quite early on and bookies dropped his odds to 1/4 on at one point,
Then the market stagnated and bookies were looking at a big loss as the forums and BBOTS was strongly indicative of a Rylan win.
Nobody else was being backed as it was a foregone conclusion, save for the odd bet on Speidy as the only other realistic contender to this.
How do you solve a problem like this as a bookie?
You need punters to back other housemates to mitigate your position.
How do you get people betting when nobody is betting?
By manipulating the market, that's how.
You choose a horse (or person in this case) who you know has absolutely no chance of winning and get people to back that person.
How do you get people backing that person?
1) Start some rumours. There were a few on here over the weekend that Trish had stood up to Speidy and was the new house hero for example
2) Drop the odds dramatically i.e. create a virtual steamer. Not as crazy as it sounds. When her odds started dropping rapidly, people will have backed her with the belief that somebody somewhere knows something and they are betting big on this.
Bookies don't lose anything on this, the odds on Rylan only drifted out slightly and bookies are limiting the amount you can place on him anyway.
If it works and punters start backing Trishia, it's money for nothing for the bookies. If it fails, they don't lose anything by trying.
The best example currently about the absurdity of it all is Paddy Power.
Trisha to Win odds 5/2 second favourite
Trisha to Go on Weds odds 5/2 second favourite
As many have said, the 5/2 odds for her to win are laughable.
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Comments
So bung a bundle on one of them (Trish) so the voters see the odds come in, that will make them think - aye aye, there's money gooing on her, she'll be getting a lot of votes then, more than the other 3, so i'll add my vote too, anything to stop rylan or speidi winning,
hence lots of votes for Trish, maybe enough to give her the victory
In fact, nothing stacks up with her getting lots of votes.
Crowd reaction to her name? Nothing
Events in the house? Nothing
Storylines around her? Nothing
Coverage on BBOTS? Nothing
Threads about her before the massive steamer? Nothing
Polls? Bottom
This doesn't smell like a betting sting by a punter who is hopeful that hundreds of thousands of middleground voters will back Trisha because her odds are dropping.
It smells more like a bookies operation.
Tricia being Tricia I don't think means anything.
(Though I want her to win because she's amaze).
They could spread it, certainly.
But how may votes do you need to place to win? 100,000? 500,000? 1,000,000?
You'd have to be sure that you were going to win. You'd equally need to have the money to place that many votes? You'd equally need to have a fool proof voting method to place that many votes which would not be detectable.
You'd equally need to be able to get your money out of the bookies who I promise you would be demanding an investigation if Trisha did win.
I'm still to be convinced this is not a bookies led steamer.
If anyone thinks big money is ever placed on this type of market then they are totally wrong. A bet of £5 to £10 could see the odds tumble as they are just a novelty bet. Bookies would never make or lose big money on these types of bets, they are just used to attract new punters, much the same as a supermarket selling goods at a loss just to get people into their store.
A perfect example is the Trisha market where she is 5/2 to win and leave. This just means there has probably only been money for her on both markets which are totally separate markets.
I'm not for one second saying that bookies colluded to do this, that'd be legal suicide.
If one bookie however dropped his odds dramtically then the rest would follow, for that's how the world revolves.
I guess I'm simply trying to work out her odds in the end, nothing at all stacks up.
If it's not the bookies then it's the punters as ffawkes suggests and that doesn't smell right either.
All very strange indeed, especially if Trish goes tonight!
Every market needs a starting point and I believe Rylan was very short at the start. They would lose more if someone else won but not a lot anyway in the grand scale of things.
Even more so now!!!!
I don't believe that's true at all.
As I understand it the bookies can set whatever odds they wish.
Lets face it,its cheating by any other bb standard of the past.
Having backed Claire to be the last woman standing (excluding Heidi) I'm quite happy myself but feel for anybody who may have been sucked into betting on a steamer.
Caveat Empore.
I quite genuinely can't see why Ryan is more boring than Tricia. I can't think of one single interesting or memorable moment she had in the house, whereas he has had several.
For example him volunteering for the cleaning of the pipes task very early on when Speidy refused.