Carswell has a seat that is (a) in Essex (b) is on the east coast (c) has deprived seaside wards (d) has angry elderly white voters. In other words he has about the most favourable alignments for UKIP support there is, plus he is a well known constituency MP and a noted eurosceptic. Although everything is a gamble to an extent, resigning and re-standing here but under a UKIP banner isn’t that much of a gamble is it?
If he was MP for Putney he wouldn’t be doing this.
Yep he's going to walk the by election. UKIP are about to get their first seat. His message will be very popular with voters and may well send a message prior to the GE that UKIP are not to be written off.
This could be the beginning of the end for Cameron. The only thing that could save him is a change in EU policy and a deal with UKIP. Otherwise I think Labour have just won the GE.
How is that the case? He will be able to vote in all divisions. Does the Green Party or Respect have whips? They only have one MP too.
Your understanding of parliamentary procedure seems to be a little lacking.
As does yours.
As the members of The Green party and the Respect party were returned, by election, to the House of Commons, they do have a whip, UKIP don't.
Parliamentary activity can be conducted on an independent basis, with no party affiliation. But, as parliament is not currently in session, it is a moot point.
Majority of the local Tory machinery will defect too. If the results from May's Euro election - locally - are anything to go by, it's going to be carnage. Lots of lost deposits.
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 12 Mar 2014
Only the Conservatives will guarantee and deliver an In /Out referendum. It will only happen if Cameron is Prime Minister #BetterOffOut
Yep he's going to walk the by election. UKIP are about to get their first seat. His message will be very popular with voters and may well send a message prior to the GE that UKIP are not to be written off.
This could be the beginning of the end for Cameron. The only thing that could save him is a change in EU policy and a deal with UKIP. Otherwise I think Labour have just won the GE.
This is UKIP's intention.
They do not want the Conservatives under Cameron to win the next General Election.
The reason for this is obvious. If Cameron wins the next General Election. Even if he holds a referendum on EU membership he will probably campaign to stay in.
The last thing that UKIP wants is an EU referendum campaign with all three main parties campaigning to say in.
So UKIP are playing a long game. They are prepared to accept Labour winning the next General Election if it means the Conservative party lurching to the right and forming some kind of alliance with UKIP.
They believe that this will result in a Conservative/UKIP win at the 2020 General Election with an overall majority.
The problem with this theory is that they do not accept that it would be almost impossible for an extreme right wing party to win a General Election in the same way as it would be almost impossible for an extreme left wing party to win a General Election.
Not really. Only one person has remembered something from six months ago.
One person here, maybe but many, many more out there.
Sophy Ridge @SophyRidgeSky 1h
Interesting to see the number of Eurosceptic Tories criticising Carswell's decision & pointing out he praised PM's referendum pledge
The irony is that Carswell has left the only party that could introduce a referendum on Europe for a party that has absolutely no chance of doing so. But, as I say, the Tories are better off without him.
The only thing Cameron will be regretting is that the news broke today when he would have been hoping to get the headlines for his CBI speech in Glasgow tonight.
In the long term though I doubt he will be bothered.
Carswell is one of the primary s*** stirrers on the back benches. The Tory party is better off without him.
The Tory party you are more comfortable with (and I am more comfortable with too) would be better off without him, but that is not where we are at.
Noted eurosceptic defects in UKIP friendly constituency and will probably win the ensuing by election. UKIP will be back in the game big time and only six months before a general election. Cue panic in many parts of the party as the Tories then struggle to cope with the aftermath. Will there be further defections? Will the Tories go even more euro-sceptic?
It will all be very febrile and a crucial battle for the soul of the party will be in play. It will put last nights Great British Bake Off very much in the shade! ;-)
I've just gone out and bought my popcorn.
The irony is that Carswell has left the only party that could introduce a referendum on Europe for a party that has absolutely no chance of doing so. But, as I say, the Tories are better off without him.
See the post above by Old Man 43. There is a long game being played here.
Carswell pointed out his support for the referendum in his UKIP speech this morning but what he also stated was he is unhappy with the position the Tories will fight the referendum, so he felt forced to leave.
A referendum is all well and good but I think UKIP believe it would be a wasted one if Cameron were still in charge. I think they're waiting for Boris.
They do not want the Conservatives under Cameron to win the next General Election.
The reason for this is obvious. If Cameron wins the next General Election. Even if he holds a referendum on EU membership he will probably campaign to stay in.
The last thing that UKIP wants is an EU referendum campaign with all three main parties campaigning to say in.
So UKIP are playing a long game. They are prepared to accept Labour winning the next General Election if it means the Conservative party lurching to the right and forming some kind of alliance with UKIP.
They believe that this will result in a Conservative/UKIP win at the 2020 General Election with an overall majority.
The problem with this theory is that they do not accept that it would be almost impossible for an extreme right wing party to win a General Election in the same way as it would be almost impossible for an extreme left wing party to win a General Election.
The very last thing UKIP want is a referendum on the EU.
The Tory party you are more comfortable with (and I am more comfortable with too) would be better off without him, but that is not where we are at.
Noted eurosceptic defects in UKIP friendly constituency and will probably win the ensuing by election. UKIP will be back in the game big time and only six months before a general election. Cue panic in many parts of the party as the Tories then struggle to cope with the aftermath. Will there be further defections? Will the Tories go even more euro-sceptic?
It will all be very febrile and a crucial battle for the soul of the party will be in play. It will put last nights Great British Bake Off very much in the shade! ;-)
I've just gone out and bought my popcorn.
I think there may well be other defections - it wouldn't surprise me at all. And to be completely honest, I would welcome them. The right wing of the Tory party are beyond the pale for me - if it means that the Tory chances in 2015 are reduced, even significantly reduced, I'd much rather have that than a party with two faces.
They do not want the Conservatives under Cameron to win the next General Election.
The reason for this is obvious. If Cameron wins the next General Election. Even if he holds a referendum on EU membership he will probably campaign to stay in.
The last thing that UKIP wants is an EU referendum campaign with all three main parties campaigning to say in.
Great post.
UKIP will exist all the while UK membership of the EU exists and no referendum.
See the post above by Old Man 43. There is a long game being played here.
Carswell pointed out his support for the referendum in his UKIP speech this morning but what he also stated was he is unhappy with the position the Tories will fight the referendum, so he felt forced to leave.
A referendum is all well and good but I think UKIP believe it would be a wasted one if Cameron were still in charge. I think they're waiting for Boris.
Cameron will definitely be pro Europe but I very much doubt the Tory MP's will be whipped to fall in line and they'd ignore it even if they were. The Europe issue is far bigger than one man, just as Independence is far bigger than Salmond.
I think Oldman43's post raises a very good point - what happens to UKIP if a referendum is held? But, in the same way that I don't see support for the SNP vanishing after the vote (I'm assuming they won't win), I can't see the hostility to Europe vanishing either. If anything, UKIP could stand to clean up on that issue as the other parties are forced to state their position.
Comments
Caroline is a busy girl. As well as royally screwing up Brighton, she is all things to all people in parliament.
Yep he's going to walk the by election. UKIP are about to get their first seat. His message will be very popular with voters and may well send a message prior to the GE that UKIP are not to be written off.
This could be the beginning of the end for Cameron. The only thing that could save him is a change in EU policy and a deal with UKIP. Otherwise I think Labour have just won the GE.
As does yours.
As the members of The Green party and the Respect party were returned, by election, to the House of Commons, they do have a whip, UKIP don't.
Parliamentary activity can be conducted on an independent basis, with no party affiliation. But, as parliament is not currently in session, it is a moot point.
Ask Carswell himself...
I suspect he might regret writing that.
Do you ever think that they have a good one?
Your spoon big enough?
Carswell is one of the primary s*** stirrers on the back benches. The Tory party is better off without him.
Not really. Only one person has remembered something from six months ago.
This is UKIP's intention.
They do not want the Conservatives under Cameron to win the next General Election.
The reason for this is obvious. If Cameron wins the next General Election. Even if he holds a referendum on EU membership he will probably campaign to stay in.
The last thing that UKIP wants is an EU referendum campaign with all three main parties campaigning to say in.
So UKIP are playing a long game. They are prepared to accept Labour winning the next General Election if it means the Conservative party lurching to the right and forming some kind of alliance with UKIP.
They believe that this will result in a Conservative/UKIP win at the 2020 General Election with an overall majority.
The problem with this theory is that they do not accept that it would be almost impossible for an extreme right wing party to win a General Election in the same way as it would be almost impossible for an extreme left wing party to win a General Election.
One person here, maybe but many, many more out there.
The irony is that Carswell has left the only party that could introduce a referendum on Europe for a party that has absolutely no chance of doing so. But, as I say, the Tories are better off without him.
Do you ever, ever, ever, ever see anything in any other light?
You are so grimly blinkered by something so single-mindedly mundane, it's depressing to behold.
He must be super-confident of winning a by-election, which with a big Tory majority seems bizarre. He must also be confident of winning in 2015.
Cameron: Hug a Hoodie, Lose a Dougie. Will he go down in history as the worst ever Tory PM?
In the long term though I doubt he will be bothered.
The Tory party you are more comfortable with (and I am more comfortable with too) would be better off without him, but that is not where we are at.
Noted eurosceptic defects in UKIP friendly constituency and will probably win the ensuing by election. UKIP will be back in the game big time and only six months before a general election. Cue panic in many parts of the party as the Tories then struggle to cope with the aftermath. Will there be further defections? Will the Tories go even more euro-sceptic?
It will all be very febrile and a crucial battle for the soul of the party will be in play. It will put last nights Great British Bake Off very much in the shade! ;-)
I've just gone out and bought my popcorn.
See the post above by Old Man 43. There is a long game being played here.
Carswell pointed out his support for the referendum in his UKIP speech this morning but what he also stated was he is unhappy with the position the Tories will fight the referendum, so he felt forced to leave.
A referendum is all well and good but I think UKIP believe it would be a wasted one if Cameron were still in charge. I think they're waiting for Boris.
Yes, because I'm sure nobody else will ever mention it now. Especially not whomever the Tories contest the seat with.
The very last thing UKIP want is a referendum on the EU.
Being "super-confident" is no guarantee it will happen.
You sound devistated, take your hurt out on Carswell not me.
I think there may well be other defections - it wouldn't surprise me at all. And to be completely honest, I would welcome them. The right wing of the Tory party are beyond the pale for me - if it means that the Tory chances in 2015 are reduced, even significantly reduced, I'd much rather have that than a party with two faces.
We'll you'd know.
Great post.
UKIP will exist all the while UK membership of the EU exists and no referendum.
Cameron will definitely be pro Europe but I very much doubt the Tory MP's will be whipped to fall in line and they'd ignore it even if they were. The Europe issue is far bigger than one man, just as Independence is far bigger than Salmond.
I think Oldman43's post raises a very good point - what happens to UKIP if a referendum is held? But, in the same way that I don't see support for the SNP vanishing after the vote (I'm assuming they won't win), I can't see the hostility to Europe vanishing either. If anything, UKIP could stand to clean up on that issue as the other parties are forced to state their position.
This Labour also want UKIP to continue as it divides the Conservative vote and gives them an even better chance of winning.
UKIP. It's the gift that keeps on giving.