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Scottish Independence not so unlikely

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    jjwalesjjwales Posts: 48,575
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    The Queen is likely to block any attempt for Scotland to assert its independence looking at the papers (keeping skepticism in mind that this could just be a scare tactic by the No campaign). If there is a Yes vote and the Queen just refuses assent for any laws needing to be passed for the UK to acknowledge Scotland's independence, things could get messy.

    Another reason why the UK needs to become a republic.

    Not really, though in the long run it probably should. It is extremely unlikely that the Queen would refuse assent.
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    Auntie ClimaxAuntie Climax Posts: 917
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    If, on the day, the Yes campaign win by 51% to 49%, would Scotland be able to survive if 49% of the nation emigrated? Not likely to happen, I admit, but it's a very large number of people for a nation that already has quite a small population.
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    AshbourneAshbourne Posts: 3,036
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    If, on the day, the Yes campaign win by 51% to 49%, would Scotland be able to survive if 49% of the nation emigrated? Not likely to happen, I admit, but it's a very large number of people for a nation that already has quite a small population.

    You could say the same the other way round but it ain't gonna happen.
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    Welsh-ladWelsh-lad Posts: 51,925
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    It would probably happen sooner if the English were given a vote to go it alone

    I'm not so sure. The bitterness evident from the English side seems to suggest they don't really want the union to be split up.
    What do opinion polls in England show regarding Scottish independence?
    jjwales wrote: »
    That's by no means certain. Labour would certainly suffer from the loss of Scottish MPs, but it needn't keep them out of government.

    Yeah I guess, though I suppose Labour would need to win landslide victories a la 1997 again and again in order to hold on to power, wouldn't they?
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    Auntie ClimaxAuntie Climax Posts: 917
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    Ashbourne wrote: »
    You could say the same the other way round but it ain't gonna happen.
    A No vote changes nothing, it's very unlikely anyone would move. A Yes vote does encourage people, and businesses, to jump. If businesses go, jobs go. If jobs go, people go. If people go....

    True, 49% of the nation aren't going to move, but if big businesses move and some people go with them, it could have a huge impact on the current situation.
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    jjwalesjjwales Posts: 48,575
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    Welsh-lad wrote: »
    Yeah I guess, though I suppose Labour would need to win landslide victories a la 1997 again and again in order to hold on to power, wouldn't they?

    Why a landslide? A party only needs a small majority to gain power.
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    AshbourneAshbourne Posts: 3,036
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    A No vote changes nothing, it's very unlikely anyone would move. A Yes vote does encourage people, and businesses, to jump. If businesses go, jobs go. If jobs go, people go. If people go....

    True, 49% of the nation aren't going to move, but if big businesses move and some people go with them, it could have a huge impact on the current situation.

    They won't though...
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    Auntie ClimaxAuntie Climax Posts: 917
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    Ashbourne wrote: »
    They won't though...
    Who won't what though? :D
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    noise747noise747 Posts: 30,862
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    I will just be glad when it is over, getting fed up of hearing about it now, been on going for months and months.

    If Scotland want to be independent then fine, if that is what they want, but lets secure the border before it happens and once they go, they have gone, if they have problems, then that is their bad luck.
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    irishguyirishguy Posts: 22,172
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    The Queen is likely to block any attempt for Scotland to assert its independence looking at the papers (keeping skepticism in mind that this could just be a scare tactic by the No campaign). If there is a Yes vote and the Queen just refuses assent for any laws needing to be passed for the UK to acknowledge Scotland's independence, things could get messy.

    Another reason why the UK needs to become a republic.

    Doubt she'll do that...it would destroy the whole principal of a politically neutral constitutional monarch.... Parliament would have a fit at such a move and she'd have done more to promote the republican cause since Charles I
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    lemoncurdlemoncurd Posts: 57,778
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    I hope that it's a 'Yes' vote and then for the Welsh and Northern Irish to be offered a referendum and for them to vote 'Yes', too

    And Northern England. And Cornwall!
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    noise747noise747 Posts: 30,862
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    Welsh-lad wrote: »
    Jolly good :)

    I wouldn't count my chickens though; the Yes campaign needs to stay focused and vigorous.

    Come on Scotland! The definition of a sovereign country is to have its independence and the highest possible degree of self-determination.
    I know how I'd vote :)
    You're so lucky to have this opportunity.

    As if Wales could do the same thing? Too small and your tax would have go sky high for Wales to survive.
    Scotland will find it hard and if they vote yes they may have a shock, after all free prescriptions and university places have to paid for somehow.
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    AshbourneAshbourne Posts: 3,036
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    Who won't what though? :D

    Big businesses aren't going to move.
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    Auntie ClimaxAuntie Climax Posts: 917
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    Ashbourne wrote: »
    Big businesses aren't going to move.
    I didn't say big businesses. I just said businesses. There are a lot of local, small businesses that employ many people, and that may not wish to remain operating in an independent Scotland, especially if most of their workload comes from outside of Scotland. They have a lot to consider.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 7,488
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    Ashbourne wrote: »
    Big businesses aren't going to move.

    Actually, EU rules mean the big banks may have to move. I believe there's an EU rule which states a bank should be located in the same country as the majority of it's customers. Since that will likely be the the remaining UK and not Scotland, the banks may forced/coerced into moving...

    And even if they aren't forced to by law, some of them may move by choice to avoid regulatory headaches or currency headaches or even perhaps EU membership headaches that may arrive...
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    AshbourneAshbourne Posts: 3,036
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    A No vote changes nothing, it's very unlikely anyone would move. A Yes vote does encourage people, and businesses, to jump. If businesses go, jobs go. If jobs go, people go. If people go....

    True, 49% of the nation aren't going to move, but if big businesses move and some people go with them, it could have a huge impact on the current situation.
    I didn't say big businesses. I just said businesses. There are a lot of local, small businesses that employ many people, and that may not wish to remain operating in an independent Scotland, especially if most of their workload comes from outside of Scotland. They have a lot to consider.

    Yes, you did.
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    AshbourneAshbourne Posts: 3,036
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    Actually, EU rules mean the big banks may have to move. I believe there's an EU rule which states a bank should be located in the same country as the majority of it's customers. Since that will likely be the the remaining UK and not Scotland, the banks may forced/coerced into moving...

    They may be and that is why they are currently preparing for a yes vote.
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    Auntie ClimaxAuntie Climax Posts: 917
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    Ashbourne wrote: »
    Yes, you did.
    Ah yes, I did at the bottom, apologies. :D

    However, I primarily meant business in general, although I do believe that several big businesses will be moving, too.

    Not a good position for Scotland or its people.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 7,488
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    Ashbourne wrote: »
    They may be and that is why they are currently preparing for a yes vote.

    It undermines the claim that big businesses won't move though, and even if they aren't legally forced too some might want to move to avoid the chaos and confusion that comes with starting a new sovereign state...
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    BinaryDadBinaryDad Posts: 3,988
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    noise747 wrote: »
    Scotland will find it hard and if they vote yes they may have a shock, after all free prescriptions and university places have to paid for somehow.

    All currently paid by money received from the treasury, calculated by the Barnett formula. Which is demonstrate ably less than the money that Scotland pays into the treasury in the form of tax receipts.

    You're right, it all has to be paid somehow and Scotland would manage it just fine. That's not to say it'll be all roses, but it's not as dire straights as you might want to make out.
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    Artemis1Artemis1 Posts: 1,310
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    I think it all boils down to the currency.if the Scots don't have the uk pound - would the Eurozone not want them to adopt the Euro.
    If that happened the main players could determine budget for Scotland.
    Then your big businesses would leave.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 312
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    Will the Union Jack flag change as a result of the yes vote to Scottish Independence?
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 7,488
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    BinaryDad wrote: »
    All currently paid by money received from the treasury, calculated by the Barnett formula. Which is demonstrate ably less than the money that Scotland pays into the treasury in the form of tax receipts.

    You're right, it all has to be paid somehow and would Scotland manage it just fine. That's not to say it'll be all roses, but it's not as dire straights as you might want to make out.

    Depends, their seems to be a heavy emphasis on declining oil stocks from the pro-Independence side. (Regardless of how many years there is left, a back up plan for the country would still need to be required).

    And, I'm not sure you'll know the answer, but why does Salmond keep spouting this "more tax per head" figure, when it means almost nothing? Is there not a more relevant figure he could give?
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    DaewosDaewos Posts: 8,345
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    zexstream wrote: »
    What we need is a hard pressed advert telling the Scottish people what will happen if they go it alone.

    1. Borders to be introduced and a steel fence spanning along side Hadrians wall.

    2. Ban on Scotland using the Royal Family, Sterling, English, and the BBC.

    3. Visa`s for anyone Scottish working in the UK, deportations likely.

    Just out of interest, do you know where Hadrian's Wall is? :o

    As it is all in England I am not sure how many Northumbrians will feel about suddenly becoming Scottish! Who knows, they may be quite pleased!!

    And, how will you ban us from using the English language?
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 7,488
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    Artemis1 wrote: »
    I think it all boils down to the currency.if the Scots don't have the uk pound - would the Eurozone not want them to adopt the Euro.
    If that happened the main players could determine budget for Scotland.
    Then your big businesses would leave.

    The EU has indicated a preference for new members joining the Euro, but I believe Salmond has found a precedent for it not being a necessity...
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