UKIP in coalition with the Conservatives would destroy their future vote, just as it's doing for the LibDems.
Nigel Farage is a lot cleverer than your typical LibDem, so I don't see him allowing a coalition.
"What I will say is this: if things go well next spring, I would like to be Minister for Europe [...] I mean that quite seriously. I would like to be the person who goes to Brussels and says, ‘We want to trade with you. We want reciprocal relationships. But this European Treaty doesn’t work for us, and so we are breaking it." -- Nigel Farage,
If what you say is true, Farage is telling a pack of lies. He can't become "Minister for Europe" without entering into a coalition.
So, with UKIPers apparently agreeing with your comments, I have to ask, which is it to be? Liar, or not "cleverer than your typical LibDem"?
"What I will say is this: if things go well next spring, I would like to be Minister for Europe [...] I mean that quite seriously. I would like to be the person who goes to Brussels and says, ‘We want to trade with you. We want reciprocal relationships. But this European Treaty doesn’t work for us, and so we are breaking it." -- Nigel Farage,
If what you say is true, Farage is telling a pack of lies. He can't become "Minister for Europe" without entering into a coalition.
So, with UKIPers apparently agreeing with your comments, I have to ask, which is it to be? Liar, or not "cleverer than your typical LibDem"?
Like Clegg Farage is campaigning to run the country - it won't happen - but theoretically as PM he could appoint himself Minister for Europe or serve under Carswell. A UKIP majority govt would not be a Coalition.
Comprende? It's perfectly reconcilable if unlikely.
Like Clegg Farage is campaigning to run the country - it won't happen - but theoretically as PM he could appoint himself Minister for Europe or serve under Carswell. A UKIP majority govt would not be a Coalition.
Comprende? It's perfectly reconcilable if unlikely.
Reconcilable to a Kipper, certainly.
PM appointing himself as a minister. Remind me the last time that happened? And what purpose would it serve? "Oh I'm not here as leader of my country, just minister for Europe".
Farage serving under Carswell -- after going into the election as leader. Remind me the last time that happened?
You can wriggle all you like, but that was not his meaning in that interview.
PM appointing himself as a minister. Remind me the last time that happened? And what purpose would it serve? "Oh I'm not here as leader of my country, just minister for Europe".
Farage serving under Carswell -- after going into the election as leader. Remind me the last time that happened?
You can wriggle all you like, but that was not his meaning in that interview.
Ever thought you might be reading far too much into these things - it's an amusing comment that's all. Do chill.
There will never be a formal alliance between the Tories and Ukip, and they'd be stupid to even consider it. It would split the Conservative Party down the middle, probably forever.
There will never be a formal alliance between the Tories and Ukip, and they'd be stupid to even consider it. It would split the Conservative Party down the middle, probably forever.
But it's possible for UKIP to agree to "help out" the Conservatives in return for "favours".
The LibDems were stupid to form an actual coalition, or just very arrogant and power crazed.
In terms of seats, Electoral Calculus puts that as Labour short of a majority by 3.
LAB - 323
CON - 289
LD - 11
UKIP - 0
GRN - 0
Governments always recover % from the opposition leading into the election so its likely CON's will be at the very least 2% up on these figures and labour will likely be at best the same or down % wise which is how I came to my prediction that I posted a few posts ago in this thread, also worth noting that Electoral Calculus works on a uniform swing which is why they are predicting 0 seats for UKIP when in fact UKIP are likely to win a handful of seats.
These figures really are awful for Labour, the Tories are on course to win the most seats going by these numbers & factoring in the fact that CON's will likely recover more % before election day and labour will likely lose 1-2% (basing this on past elections with how governments recover before polling day). Ed Miliband is heading for being forced to resign after the next Election judging by this.
Governments always recover % from the opposition leading into the election so its likely CON's will be at the very least 2% up on these figures and labour will likely be at best the same or down % wise which is how I came to my prediction that I posted a few posts ago in this thread, also worth noting that Electoral Calculus works on a uniform swing which is why they are predicting 0 seats for UKIP when in fact UKIP are likely to win a handful of seats.
These figures really are awful for Labour, the Tories are on course to win the most seats going by these numbers & factoring in the fact that CON's will likely recover more % before election day and labour will likely lose 1-2% (basing this on past elections with how governments recover before polling day). Ed Miliband is heading for being forced to resign after the next Election judging by this.
Check previous elections, the current government always recovers % leading into the election.
Also check that governments always lose seats in subsequent elections (apart from October 1974). Which one of these will be true next year - maybe both?
Also check that governments always lose seats in subsequent elections (apart from October 1974). Which one of these will be true next year - maybe both?
I agree with you I expect the CON's to lose seats & Labour to gain, I think they will both be at around the 300 mark with either coming out a couple of seats ahead but I'd say conservatives are favorites at the moment. My current prediction (obviously will change like a yo-yo most likely up until may) is that CONs wil win 308 with labour 304
The Conservatives won 307 seats in 2010, not a majority. Surely it'll be down on that.
Labour won 258 seats in 2010, surely they'll be up on that.
Labour can win (but likely won't), the Conservatives absolutely can not win.
I agree with you the Conservatives definitely have no chance of a majority (IMO), I think it will be hung parliament with both parties being very close or just above 300 seats, I expect CON's to have the most seats by a handful but it could be Labour by a handful too, Labour have more chance of winning a majority due to the voting system but I still don't think they will get the support they need to win a majority, the best Labour can hope for is to be the largest party short by a handful of seats but I think even that is slightly optimistic on their part.
Labour will most likely loose seats in Scotland which hasn't been accounted for and ukip will probably gain a handful in the south east
Yeah all the more reason why I see CON being the largest party in a Hung Parliament. I can see the current coalition continuing with LIbDem being allowed less cabinet members due to there parties vote collapse.
National Opinion Poll (YouGov):
CON - 34% (+3)
LAB - 34% (=)
Two main party's now tied
Wil be fascinating to see what, if anything, Labour do if LAB begin to fall behind CON on a consistent basis. Based on long term trends it's only a matter of time.
Wil be fascinating to see what, if anything, Labour do if LAB begin to fall behind CON on a consistent basis. Based on long term trends it's only a matter of time.
I expect CON's to be a couple of percentage points up by the time we get to next May, if thats the case it could be one of the closest elections ever with Labour possibly winning more seats even though being 2% down or possibly CON's edging the most seats by a handful. Its very difficult to see either party winning a majority at this point.
In terms of seats, Electoral Calculus puts that as Labour short of a majority by 3.
LAB - 323
CON - 289
LD - 11
UKIP - 0
GRN - 0
I think those 'Electoral Calculus' numbers are now a complete waste of time. The voting patterns are too diverse and complex for it to accurately predict seats on uniform swing.
I'm going to take in one more week of polling to see where the floating voters are falling with Labour/Tory/UKIP and will then make my (always accurate) vote share prediciton for next year.
I think those 'Electoral Calculus' numbers are now a complete waste of time. The voting patterns are too diverse and complex for it to accurately predict seats on uniform swing.
I'm going to take in one more week of polling to see where the floating voters are falling with Labour/Tory/UKIP and will then make my (always accurate) vote share prediciton for next year.
Who do you think are most likely to be the largest party currently (seat wise)?
Comments
Greens and LDs?
"What I will say is this: if things go well next spring, I would like to be Minister for Europe [...] I mean that quite seriously. I would like to be the person who goes to Brussels and says, ‘We want to trade with you. We want reciprocal relationships. But this European Treaty doesn’t work for us, and so we are breaking it." -- Nigel Farage,
If what you say is true, Farage is telling a pack of lies. He can't become "Minister for Europe" without entering into a coalition.
So, with UKIPers apparently agreeing with your comments, I have to ask, which is it to be? Liar, or not "cleverer than your typical LibDem"?
Like Clegg Farage is campaigning to run the country - it won't happen - but theoretically as PM he could appoint himself Minister for Europe or serve under Carswell. A UKIP majority govt would not be a Coalition.
Comprende? It's perfectly reconcilable if unlikely.
Reconcilable to a Kipper, certainly.
PM appointing himself as a minister. Remind me the last time that happened? And what purpose would it serve? "Oh I'm not here as leader of my country, just minister for Europe".
Farage serving under Carswell -- after going into the election as leader. Remind me the last time that happened?
You can wriggle all you like, but that was not his meaning in that interview.
Ever thought you might be reading far too much into these things - it's an amusing comment that's all. Do chill.
The standard response from a Kipster when they have been mugged off
Oh it was just a joke blah blah
But it's possible for UKIP to agree to "help out" the Conservatives in return for "favours".
The LibDems were stupid to form an actual coalition, or just very arrogant and power crazed.
In terms of seats, Electoral Calculus puts that as Labour short of a majority by 3.
LAB - 323
CON - 289
LD - 11
UKIP - 0
GRN - 0
Governments always recover % from the opposition leading into the election so its likely CON's will be at the very least 2% up on these figures and labour will likely be at best the same or down % wise which is how I came to my prediction that I posted a few posts ago in this thread, also worth noting that Electoral Calculus works on a uniform swing which is why they are predicting 0 seats for UKIP when in fact UKIP are likely to win a handful of seats.
These figures really are awful for Labour, the Tories are on course to win the most seats going by these numbers & factoring in the fact that CON's will likely recover more % before election day and labour will likely lose 1-2% (basing this on past elections with how governments recover before polling day). Ed Miliband is heading for being forced to resign after the next Election judging by this.
Here is my prediction after factoring in the likely continued CON recovery before May : http://gyazo.com/286f749f751bb7201e92843bf4ba372e
Check previous elections, the current government always recovers % leading into the election.
Labour won 258 seats in 2010, surely they'll be up on that.
Labour can win (but likely won't), the Conservatives absolutely can not win.
I agree with you I expect the CON's to lose seats & Labour to gain, I think they will both be at around the 300 mark with either coming out a couple of seats ahead but I'd say conservatives are favorites at the moment. My current prediction (obviously will change like a yo-yo most likely up until may) is that CONs wil win 308 with labour 304
I agree with you the Conservatives definitely have no chance of a majority (IMO), I think it will be hung parliament with both parties being very close or just above 300 seats, I expect CON's to have the most seats by a handful but it could be Labour by a handful too, Labour have more chance of winning a majority due to the voting system but I still don't think they will get the support they need to win a majority, the best Labour can hope for is to be the largest party short by a handful of seats but I think even that is slightly optimistic on their part.
Labour will most likely loose seats in Scotland which hasn't been accounted for and ukip will probably gain a handful in the south east
Yeah all the more reason why I see CON being the largest party in a Hung Parliament. I can see the current coalition continuing with LIbDem being allowed less cabinet members due to there parties vote collapse.
Wil be fascinating to see what, if anything, Labour do if LAB begin to fall behind CON on a consistent basis. Based on long term trends it's only a matter of time.
I expect CON's to be a couple of percentage points up by the time we get to next May, if thats the case it could be one of the closest elections ever with Labour possibly winning more seats even though being 2% down or possibly CON's edging the most seats by a handful. Its very difficult to see either party winning a majority at this point.
I think those 'Electoral Calculus' numbers are now a complete waste of time. The voting patterns are too diverse and complex for it to accurately predict seats on uniform swing.
I'm going to take in one more week of polling to see where the floating voters are falling with Labour/Tory/UKIP and will then make my (always accurate) vote share prediciton for next year.
Who do you think are most likely to be the largest party currently (seat wise)?