Vote Labour you will get Labour/SNP
Vote Conservative you will get a hung parliament with no one able to team up for 326 seats
Vote Lib Dem you will get Labour/SNP
Vote UKIP you will get Labour/SNP
Vote Green you will get Labour/SNP
In Scotland vote SNP you get Labour/SNP
vote Labour you will get Labour/SNP
Basically the SNP have already won and will control the UK parliament with no say from the voters of England, Wales & NI which would be hypercritical as the SNP's strategy in the referendum was tell the Scots how unjust it was for the Tories to run Scotland, at least the Scots had a chance to say no.
Vote conservative and you may get another 5 years of Con/Lib Dems I think its reasonably likely.
Basically the SNP have already won and will control the UK parliament with no say from the voters of England, Wales & NI which would be hypercritical as the SNP's strategy in the referendum was tell the Scots how unjust it was for the Tories to run Scotland, at least the Scots had a chance to say no.
Whatever happened to BETTER TOGETHER?
We want you, we love you, we want you to stay
Now get back in your box and keep quiet
Vote conservative and you may get another 5 years of Con/Lib Dems I think its reasonably likely.
If they are projecting 265 seats then it's unlikely they will be able to form a party with the Libs.
Therefore in effect tactical voting could keep the Tories as party with most seats but not enought to form a govt, other than that Labour & SNP are a shoe in at the moment 285 and 53 is 338 therefore potentially Labour have 12 seats to play with.
Just a question can two parties work together and form a minority govt or do they have to have 326, I know a party can run with a minority but is this the case with two or more in coalition because I think Labour & SNP will quite happily run a minority govt of say 320-326 with Lib Dem or NI party backup.
If they are projecting 265 seats then it's unlikely they will be able to form a party with the Libs.
Therefore in effect tactical voting could keep the Tories as party with most seats but not enought to form a govt, other than that Labour & SNP are a shoe in at the moment 285 and 53 is 338 therefore potentially Labour have 12 seats to play with.
Just a question can two parties work together and form a minority govt or do they have to have 326, I know a party can run with a minority but is this the case with two or more in coalition because I think Labour & SNP will quite happily run a minority govt of say 320-326 with Lib Dem or NI party backup.
In my own personal opinion the Tories will have at least 285 seats , meaning that with further support maybe from DUP or whatever they will be able to form a working majority of 323 seats (because Plaid don't vote etc 323 is enough). I can see a Lib Dem/Tory Coalition with further support from smaller parties just about squeaking over the line of the Lib Dems are prepared to deal with the Tory's again.
The Tory's will be able to run a minority government if a majority of the house effectively agree's to not bring the government down, so it depends. If they get near 300 seats I'm almost certain they'll be able to run a minority government (not sure if it would last 5 years). The Tories as the current government get first go at forming one , Labour would have the chance to form a supply and demand type minority government with the SNP etc. if the Tory's can't command the support of the house. At this point I'm becoming reasonably confident that Cameron will be able to remain in power in May.
Out of curiosity if both Tories & Labour had an equal number of seats and both parties came up with a coalition how would it be decided which coalition forms a government.
So for example Tories 280 and formed a coalition with Lib Dems 40 seats and UKIP 6 and Labour 280 & SNP 46 who would become the next government?
Vote Labour you will get Labour/SNP
Vote Conservative you will get a hung parliament with no one able to team up for 326 seats
Vote Lib Dem you will get Labour/SNP
Vote UKIP you will get Labour/SNP
Vote Green you will get Labour/SNP
In Scotland vote SNP you get Labour/SNP
vote Labour you will get Labour/SNP
Basically the SNP have already won and will control the UK parliament with no say from the voters of England, Wales & NI which would be hypercritical as the SNP's strategy in the referendum was tell the Scots how unjust it was for the Tories to run Scotland, at least the Scots had a chance to say no.
I have issues with a nationalist party in coalition as well - and I don't think it will happen as it's neither in the SNP's nor Labour's interest to be linked so closely together.
However. . . . . why do people think that the SNP would 'control the UK parliament' with 30-40 odd seats when the Lib Dems had minimal impact with 57 seats? At the end of the day this is a parliamentary democracy where every MP has the same right to enact UK law as any other. Is it really any less fair then the Conservatives forming a government made up of primarly Southern and rural mps that rules over the rest of the population?
I still think that Miliband's plan for a second chamber of regional senators makes sense. You have one chamber that legislates on a ideological basis and then other that validates on a regional one.
Out of curiosity if both Tories & Labour had an equal number of seats and both parties came up with a coalition how would it be decided which coalition forms a government.
So for example Tories 280 and formed a coalition with Lib Dems 40 seats and UKIP 6 and Labour 280 & SNP 46 who would become the next government?
The existing PM gets first go at forming a government. All Cameron has to do is get a budget through the house. Of course your example above is impossible because you're forgetting about the N.I. seats and the fact that the speaker is non political.
However it could be possible that both Tory and Labour form a coalition of equal numbers and everyone else abstains from a budget vote. In the case of a tie the motion will fail and there will have to be new elections.
In reality both Labour and Tories would agree a stop gap budget and arrange the elections asap.
Out of curiosity if both Tories & Labour had an equal number of seats and both parties came up with a coalition how would it be decided which coalition forms a government.
So for example Tories 280 and formed a coalition with Lib Dems 40 seats and UKIP 6 and Labour 280 & SNP 46 who would become the next government?
Being PM is in effect in the gift of the Monarch who will invite either Cameron or Milliband to be PM. At the time of the 2010 election it was suggested that the incumbent has first dibs - so that would indicate Cameron.
As it is with these latest figures I would suggest another election will happen later in the year. It is a remarkable feat to keep the coalition as long as this - but with more parties involved can you see that being repeated?
I have issues with a nationalist party in coalition as well - and I don't think it will happen as it's neither in the SNP's nor Labour's interest to be linked so closely together.
However. . . . . why do people think that the SNP would 'control the UK parliament' with 30-40 odd seats when the Lib Dems had minimal impact with 57 seats? At the end of the day this is a parliamentary democracy where every MP has the same right to enact UK law as any other. Is it really any less fair then the Conservatives forming a government made up of primarly Southern and rural mps that rules over the rest of the population?
I still think that Miliband's plan for a second chamber of regional senators makes sense. You have one chamber that legislates on a ideological basis and then other that validates on a regional one.
SNP want an independent Scotland, the LIb Dems don't therefore in a coalition the SNP would be doing the best for Scotland and to move towards another vote.
Therefore anything which wasn't in the interests of Scotland they may not vote with there Labour partners.
Out of curiosity if both Tories & Labour had an equal number of seats and both parties came up with a coalition how would it be decided which coalition forms a government.
So for example Tories 280 and formed a coalition with Lib Dems 40 seats and UKIP 6 and Labour 280 & SNP 46 who would become the next government?
Based on current Polls what are peoples general feelings at the moment as to rough seat numbers / who will win most seats?
I think Labour & Tories will roughly get the same around 280 mark but as for the other parties it really is a guessing game if Lib Dem core voters come out or not and whether UKIP can make any ground.
I think Labour & Tories will roughly get the same around 280 mark but as for the other parties it really is a guessing game if Lib Dem core voters come out or not and whether UKIP can make any ground.
I agree mainly, I think CON 290 Lab 275 SNP 40-45 Lib Dem 25 ish UKIP 3 Green 1 or something like that.
so, what social policies do the Scottish National Party have, that will benefit EVERYONE?.
Perhaps you should read the SNP website and you'll find out, as I have never voted SNP and have no intention of doing so in the future.
However, I am reminded of the following conversation:
Lord Foulkes: The SNP are on a dangerous tack at the moment. What they are doing is trying to build up a situation where services are manifestly better than south of the border in a number of areas
Colin Mackay: Is that such a bad thing
Lord Foulkes: No, but they are doing it deliberately
Based on current Polls what are peoples general feelings at the moment as to rough seat numbers / who will win most seats?
I'm sticking to the shares in my prediction from November; nothing substantial has changed since.
Seat numbers was always a much trickier calculation as it really is going to be like have 650 by-elections. I don't think the Tories will have a net loss of more than 30. Whether Labour will finish ahead of them is now dependent on Scotland.
One of my main 'rules of politics' is that things stay the same more than they change. I suspect that the SNP, UKIP and Greens will fall back and two main parties will still have the same number of seats between them.
I'm sticking to the shares in my prediction from November; nothing substantial has changed since.
Seat numbers was always a much trickier calculation as it really is going to be like have 650 by-elections. I don't think the Tories will have a net loss of more than 30. Whether Labour will finish ahead of them is now dependent on Scotland.
One of my main 'rules of politics' is that things stay the same more than they change. I suspect that the SNP, UKIP and Greens will fall back and two main parties will still have the same number of seats between them.
If your % prediction is accurate I'm extremely confident the Tory's would win more seats than Lab , you predicted 35% to 31% right? I think the FPTP advantage Labour usually have will be diminished meaning its almost certain the party with more votes will win more seats in my mind.
I agree about UKIP/Green although Scottish politics could possibly be different due to whats happened there within the last year, if UKIP/Greens get more than 10MP's between them I would be shocked. I think Lab will ultimately lose around 25-35 seats to the SNP.
I agree with your net loss prediction with the Tory's, losses they do have will be evened out with gains from the Lib Dems, I think they'll likely end up with a net loss of around 15-25 seats so have around 285-290 seats.
All the instincts in the world are telling me that the Tory's will have a reasonable swing back to them even in the last week or 2 before election, I just can't see the public electing Miliband. I'd say the Tory's can still win a majority if the campaign goes succesfully and they can make Miliband look as unelectable as possible, not sure if you agree with me on that one or not but I am not fully writing off a Tory majority yet.
I have issues with a nationalist party in coalition as well - and I don't think it will happen as it's neither in the SNP's nor Labour's interest to be linked so closely together.
However. . . . . why do people think that the SNP would 'control the UK parliament' with 30-40 odd seats when the Lib Dems had minimal impact with 57 seats? At the end of the day this is a parliamentary democracy where every MP has the same right to enact UK law as any other. Is it really any less fair then the Conservatives forming a government made up of primarly Southern and rural mps that rules over the rest of the population?
I still think that Miliband's plan for a second chamber of regional senators makes sense. You have one chamber that legislates on a ideological basis and then other that validates on a regional one.
The "never to be trusted again"LibDems have frustrated the Tories plenty of times over the 5 years, most publicly reneging on the boundary changes, despite the Tories delivering the referendum on vote reform.
The one-trick SNP would have a stranglehold over Labour (it only wants one thing and this would be their one and only chance to get it).
As for Milliband's plans, great - all we need is yet more government!
The "never to be trusted again"LibDems have frustrated the Tories plenty of times over the 5 years, most publicly reneging on the boundary changes, despite the Tories delivering the referendum on vote reform.
The one-trick SNP would have a stranglehold over Labour (it only wants one thing and this would be their one and only chance to get it).
As for Milliband's plans, great - all we need is yet more government!
It never ceases to amaze me how many Tory supporters forget that the Lib Dems only stopped boundary reform AFTER and BECAUSE of the Tory backbenchers going back on the agreement for Lords reform.
I'm sticking to the shares in my prediction from November; nothing substantial has changed since.
Seat numbers was always a much trickier calculation as it really is going to be like have 650 by-elections. I don't think the Tories will have a net loss of more than 30. Whether Labour will finish ahead of them is now dependent on Scotland.
One of my main 'rules of politics' is that things stay the same more than they change. I suspect that the SNP, UKIP and Greens will fall back and two main parties will still have the same number of seats between them.
I sincerely hope you are right. I certainly would not like another Con/Lib Dem coalition - it has been disastrous with Clegg reneging on the boundaries issue. The man could probably see his seats disappearing down the pan hence the blocking of such a very sensible idea you put boundaries based on the numbers of voters in an area or have I misunderstood?
It never ceases to amaze me how many Tory supporters forget that the Lib Dems only stopped boundary reform AFTER and BECAUSE of the Tory backbenchers going back on the agreement for Lords reform.
Ooh. Caps..
Other than establishing a committee "to bring forward proposals for a wholly or mainly elected upper chamber on the basis of proportional representation" (which happened) there was NEVER ANY agreement on Lords reform. Been over this one with you before...
I sincerely hope you are right. I certainly would not like another Con/Lib Dem coalition - it has been disastrous with Clegg reneging on the boundaries issue. The man could probably see his seats disappearing down the pan hence the blocking of such a very sensible idea you put boundaries based on the numbers of voters in an area or have I misunderstood?
If blueisthecolour is right on his seat projections a Con+Lib Dem government with some smaller party support would be entirely possible.
Comments
Vote conservative and you may get another 5 years of Con/Lib Dems I think its reasonably likely.
We want you, we love you, we want you to stay
Now get back in your box and keep quiet
If they are projecting 265 seats then it's unlikely they will be able to form a party with the Libs.
Therefore in effect tactical voting could keep the Tories as party with most seats but not enought to form a govt, other than that Labour & SNP are a shoe in at the moment 285 and 53 is 338 therefore potentially Labour have 12 seats to play with.
Just a question can two parties work together and form a minority govt or do they have to have 326, I know a party can run with a minority but is this the case with two or more in coalition because I think Labour & SNP will quite happily run a minority govt of say 320-326 with Lib Dem or NI party backup.
Huh? I am stating a point not having a go.
so, what social policies do the Scottish National Party have, that will benefit EVERYONE?.
In my own personal opinion the Tories will have at least 285 seats , meaning that with further support maybe from DUP or whatever they will be able to form a working majority of 323 seats (because Plaid don't vote etc 323 is enough). I can see a Lib Dem/Tory Coalition with further support from smaller parties just about squeaking over the line of the Lib Dems are prepared to deal with the Tory's again.
The Tory's will be able to run a minority government if a majority of the house effectively agree's to not bring the government down, so it depends. If they get near 300 seats I'm almost certain they'll be able to run a minority government (not sure if it would last 5 years). The Tories as the current government get first go at forming one , Labour would have the chance to form a supply and demand type minority government with the SNP etc. if the Tory's can't command the support of the house. At this point I'm becoming reasonably confident that Cameron will be able to remain in power in May.
So for example Tories 280 and formed a coalition with Lib Dems 40 seats and UKIP 6 and Labour 280 & SNP 46 who would become the next government?
I have issues with a nationalist party in coalition as well - and I don't think it will happen as it's neither in the SNP's nor Labour's interest to be linked so closely together.
However. . . . . why do people think that the SNP would 'control the UK parliament' with 30-40 odd seats when the Lib Dems had minimal impact with 57 seats? At the end of the day this is a parliamentary democracy where every MP has the same right to enact UK law as any other. Is it really any less fair then the Conservatives forming a government made up of primarly Southern and rural mps that rules over the rest of the population?
I still think that Miliband's plan for a second chamber of regional senators makes sense. You have one chamber that legislates on a ideological basis and then other that validates on a regional one.
The existing PM gets first go at forming a government. All Cameron has to do is get a budget through the house. Of course your example above is impossible because you're forgetting about the N.I. seats and the fact that the speaker is non political.
However it could be possible that both Tory and Labour form a coalition of equal numbers and everyone else abstains from a budget vote. In the case of a tie the motion will fail and there will have to be new elections.
In reality both Labour and Tories would agree a stop gap budget and arrange the elections asap.
Being PM is in effect in the gift of the Monarch who will invite either Cameron or Milliband to be PM. At the time of the 2010 election it was suggested that the incumbent has first dibs - so that would indicate Cameron.
As it is with these latest figures I would suggest another election will happen later in the year. It is a remarkable feat to keep the coalition as long as this - but with more parties involved can you see that being repeated?
Therefore anything which wasn't in the interests of Scotland they may not vote with there Labour partners.
It was an example not actual figures.
I think Labour & Tories will roughly get the same around 280 mark but as for the other parties it really is a guessing game if Lib Dem core voters come out or not and whether UKIP can make any ground.
I agree mainly, I think CON 290 Lab 275 SNP 40-45 Lib Dem 25 ish UKIP 3 Green 1 or something like that.
However, I am reminded of the following conversation:
I'm sticking to the shares in my prediction from November; nothing substantial has changed since.
Seat numbers was always a much trickier calculation as it really is going to be like have 650 by-elections. I don't think the Tories will have a net loss of more than 30. Whether Labour will finish ahead of them is now dependent on Scotland.
One of my main 'rules of politics' is that things stay the same more than they change. I suspect that the SNP, UKIP and Greens will fall back and two main parties will still have the same number of seats between them.
If your % prediction is accurate I'm extremely confident the Tory's would win more seats than Lab , you predicted 35% to 31% right? I think the FPTP advantage Labour usually have will be diminished meaning its almost certain the party with more votes will win more seats in my mind.
I agree about UKIP/Green although Scottish politics could possibly be different due to whats happened there within the last year, if UKIP/Greens get more than 10MP's between them I would be shocked. I think Lab will ultimately lose around 25-35 seats to the SNP.
I agree with your net loss prediction with the Tory's, losses they do have will be evened out with gains from the Lib Dems, I think they'll likely end up with a net loss of around 15-25 seats so have around 285-290 seats.
All the instincts in the world are telling me that the Tory's will have a reasonable swing back to them even in the last week or 2 before election, I just can't see the public electing Miliband. I'd say the Tory's can still win a majority if the campaign goes succesfully and they can make Miliband look as unelectable as possible, not sure if you agree with me on that one or not but I am not fully writing off a Tory majority yet.
The "never to be trusted again"LibDems have frustrated the Tories plenty of times over the 5 years, most publicly reneging on the boundary changes, despite the Tories delivering the referendum on vote reform.
The one-trick SNP would have a stranglehold over Labour (it only wants one thing and this would be their one and only chance to get it).
As for Milliband's plans, great - all we need is yet more government!
I sincerely hope you are right. I certainly would not like another Con/Lib Dem coalition - it has been disastrous with Clegg reneging on the boundaries issue. The man could probably see his seats disappearing down the pan hence the blocking of such a very sensible idea you put boundaries based on the numbers of voters in an area or have I misunderstood?
Ooh. Caps..
Other than establishing a committee "to bring forward proposals for a wholly or mainly elected upper chamber on the basis of proportional representation" (which happened) there was NEVER ANY agreement on Lords reform. Been over this one with you before...
If blueisthecolour is right on his seat projections a Con+Lib Dem government with some smaller party support would be entirely possible.