I don't believe it. I think Varoufakis will stand firm, he knows the bail out is a fraud.
A deal will be done.
I cannot see how Greece could get away from total collapse after accepting the original bailout clauses. They couldn't borrow from anywhere else if they do leave, as their credit rating must be somewhere south of North Korea by now. If the Greeks at the time of the bailout had left the Eurozone, they may have had a chance of reconstructing the economy, but now?. I simply don't see how they can.
What I expect to happen is there will be some last minute "crisis" talks, and some form of compromise will be reached. I don't think Syriza has any other option, nor would any other Greek government now......
No matter which path the Greeks take they will always be in trouble as long as they continue with ridiculous spending such generous benefits eg pensions. They are already planning to undo many of original plans to reign in overspending .
I cannot see how Greece could get away from total collapse after accepting the original bailout clauses. They couldn't borrow from anywhere else if they do leave, as their credit rating must be somewhere south of North Korea by now. If the Greeks at the time of the bailout had left the Eurozone, they may have had a chance of reconstructing the economy, but now?. I simply don't see how they can.
What I expect to happen is there will be some last minute "crisis" talks, and some form of compromise will be reached. I don't think Syriza has any other option, nor would any other Greek government now......
If the Greeks think the Germans are bad, just wait till they try the Russians or Chinese. They will demand loan repayments even if the Greeks are eating grass.
If the Greeks think the Germans are bad, just wait till they try the Russians or Chinese. They will demand loan repayments even if the Greeks are eating grass.
Would the Russians lend to a defaulted Greek state? Is their an economic benefit to them convincing the Greek's that 'mother Russia' would be willing to lend Rubles even if Greece defaulted on it's Euro debt?
Is there anything that stops the Greek Gov't from defaulting on Euro Debt and announcing that they intend to start from a clean slate with a Drachma based economy with low levels of loans from Russia for investment purposes? The Ruble loans to start once the Ruble-Drachma exchange rate stabilises?
Borrowing from Russia to get the economy going would involve much smaller amounts than borrowing to pay off Euro debt.
Just a random thought, I don't claim any economic credentials
Would the Russians lend to a defaulted Greek state? Is their an economic benefit to them convincing the Greek's that 'mother Russia' would be willing to lend Rubles even if Greece defaulted on it's Euro debt?
Neither the Russians nor the Chinese would be lending any money without getting some concrete form of collateral in their physical hands - ie actual land, mineral exploitation rights, fishing rights, harvested crops or whatever. Even then the repayment terms they would set would be so arduous that Greece would be almost certain to default. You only have to look at the way the Chinese behave in Africa to see this.
Grassmarket, I think you have an ultra poor understanding of the relationship between Greece and Russia.
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Well, I dare say I know more about the history of it than you do, but the Russians have never ever let sentimentality come between them and money. The Russians will give the Greeks money in exchange for a Mediterranean port; they will not give the Greeks money so they can continue to retire at 50, have no-show civil service jobs and get away with not paying their taxes.
Well, I dare say I know more about the history of it than you do, but the Russians have never ever let sentimentality come between them and money. The Russians will give the Greeks money in exchange for a Mediterranean port; they will not give the Greeks money so they can continue to retire at 50, have no-show civil service jobs and get away with not paying their taxes.
Your 'knowledge' has a few errors. Greeks do not retire at 50, and most Greeks with a job pay taxes same way we do, it's taken from their pay before they see it. There is a problem with rich Greeks dodging tax, but, as the EU and IMF have noted, the government in power since the bail out has done nothing to correct that.
As for Russia, if Greece seeks their help, should they have not gained concessions from the EU, I think it likely Russia would be generous. It would drive a wedge between EU countries over the sanctions imposed because of Ukraine. It would make some in other indebted countries think there can be an alternative to EU imposed austerity, and advance Russia's international standing.
Though I think the EU will compromise with Greece, they'd be daft not to.
Your 'knowledge' has a few errors. Greeks do not retire at 50, and most Greeks with a job pay taxes same way we do, it's taken from their pay before they see it. There is a problem with rich Greeks dodging tax, but, as the EU and IMF have noted, the government in power since the bail out has done nothing to correct that.
As for Russia, if Greece seeks their help, should they have not gained concessions from the EU, I think it likely Russia would be generous. It would drive a wedge between EU countries over the sanctions imposed because of Ukraine. It would make some in other indebted countries think there can be an alternative to EU imposed austerity, and advance Russia's international standing.
Though I think the EU will compromise with Greece, they'd be daft not to.
Greece has a massive self employed workforce. There si a direct correlation between the self employed and tax avoidance/evasion.
ATHENS — Vasia Veremi may be only 28, but as a hairdresser in Athens, she is keenly aware that, under a current law that treats her job as hazardous to her health, she has the right to retire with a full pension at age 50.
...
Perhaps not, but it is still difficult to explain to outsiders why the Greek government has identified at least 580 job categories deemed to be hazardous enough to merit retiring early — at age 50 for women and 55 for men.
...
As a consequence of decades of bargains struck between strong unions and weak governments, Greece has promised early retirement to about 700,000 employees, or 14 percent of its work force, giving it an average retirement age of 61, one of the lowest in Europe.
The law includes dangerous jobs like coal mining and bomb disposal. But it also covers radio and television presenters, who are thought to be at risk from the bacteria on their microphones, and musicians playing wind instruments, who must contend with gastric reflux as they puff and blow.
On Wednesday, Greek Labor Minister Yiannis Vroutsis presented data to the parliament, explaining that almost 75% of Greek pensioners are trying to secure their early retirement through legal provisions that allow them to stop working before the age of 61.
“In the public sector, 7.91% of pensioners retire between the ages of 26 and 50, 23.64% between 51 and 55, and 43.53% between 56 and 61. In IKA, 4.44% of pensioners retire between the ages of 26 and 50, 12.83% retire between 51 and 55, and 58.61% retire between 56 and 61. Meanwhile, in the so-called healthy funds, 91.6% of people retire before the national retirement age limit,” Vroutsis said.
Russia is not going to bail Greece out they are struggling to keep their own currency afloat let alone bail out billions to nation miles away. They could not keep the Ukraine and they are sat on the boarder. The main reason the Ukraine split away from the USSR / Russia was the people where fed up with the lack of money and turn towards the Euro zone. For all the oil wealth Russia had very little of it filtered down or went into supporting countries like the Ukraine.
If you think the average person in Greece is poor you should compare that to how poor the average Russian is they are not seeing much of any oil money.
Russian likes the idea of upsetting the Euro zone and wants to be in with Greece. A small loan they might offer but Greece needs massive long term support Russian just cannot provide that. It is all part of the bluff but they are not going to fool anyone.
The party go voted in on a policy in which they will stand up to the rest of Europe. So right now the party is acting all tough. Trying to show to their own public they will not back down etc. They want to be seen as having some small victory. The euro zone may actually give them something to save face in the end. If the public start rejecting this party it will just cause more chaos.
However overall when the crunch comes they will accept the money and the conditions that come with it. They don't really have a choice the country will run our of money and could end up frozen out of Europe.
If you think the average person in Greece is poor you should compare that to how poor the average Russian is they are not seeing much of any oil money.
Like I said a few days ago, even post-crisis the Greeks are still better off than many EU states like Bulgaria, Romania, the Baltic Countries etc, all of whom the Greeks demand to help them out. The Greek political system is so corrupt it cannot be reformed except by destruction.
Russia is not going to bail Greece out they are struggling to keep their own currency afloat let alone bail out billions to nation miles away.
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Russian likes the idea of upsetting the Euro zone and wants to be in with Greece. A small loan they might offer but Greece needs massive long term support Russian just cannot provide that. It is all part of the bluff but they are not going to fool anyone.
But that was my earlier point, if Greece defaulted on their Euro debit and effectively said "we're not paying anything further until our economy improves", could Russia provide smaller loans to the Greek Gov't, not to pay back the Euro debit but for Greece to spend on getting their economy going. Perhaps even with strings attached which means that a percentage of the loan has to be spend on Russian products?
Any such loan would be after Greece has adopted the Drachma, devalued and balanced tax intake against Gov't spend (excluding debt repayments).
But that was my earlier point, if Greece defaulted on their Euro debit and effectively said "we're not paying anything further until our economy improves", could Russia provide smaller loans to the Greek Gov't, not to pay back the Euro debit but for Greece to spend on getting their economy going. .
Nobody, not even the Russians, would lend the Greeks anything after they defaulted on their present loans. Any money they give them would be doled out on a strict cash in hand basis in exchange for, oh, just off the top of my head, exclusive possession of an island with a deep water harbour, submarine pens and land suitable for building an air base.
Nobody, not even the Russians, would lend the Greeks anything after they defaulted on their present loans. Any money they give them would be doled out on a strict cash in hand basis in exchange for, oh, just off the top of my head, exclusive possession of an island with a deep water harbour, submarine pens and land suitable for building an air base.
In theory I'd agree, but (and apologies for changing the emphasis in the quote) you say 'would' not 'could'.
If there is nothing in international law that could prevent the Greeks from defaulting on debt to EU banks and institutions while accepting a loan from Russian banks and institutions and refusing to use said loan to pay the EU debt ...
It boils down to whether Putin wants to hurt the EU economically, I'm sure he doesn't, afterall it's not like the EU has tried to hurt Russia economically recently... oh wait.
Comments
Nooooooooooooooooo surely not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I mean, I never saw that one coming.
Don't worry, it'll never happen. They can buy the Greeks off any time they want.
I don't believe it. I think Varoufakis will stand firm, he knows the bail out is a fraud.
That we shouldn't cry for it.
A deal will be done.
I cannot see how Greece could get away from total collapse after accepting the original bailout clauses. They couldn't borrow from anywhere else if they do leave, as their credit rating must be somewhere south of North Korea by now. If the Greeks at the time of the bailout had left the Eurozone, they may have had a chance of reconstructing the economy, but now?. I simply don't see how they can.
What I expect to happen is there will be some last minute "crisis" talks, and some form of compromise will be reached. I don't think Syriza has any other option, nor would any other Greek government now......
You win Digital Spy today, would you like it delivered to your home or your work address?
Russia perhaps?
If the Greeks think the Germans are bad, just wait till they try the Russians or Chinese. They will demand loan repayments even if the Greeks are eating grass.
Would the Russians lend to a defaulted Greek state? Is their an economic benefit to them convincing the Greek's that 'mother Russia' would be willing to lend Rubles even if Greece defaulted on it's Euro debt?
Is there anything that stops the Greek Gov't from defaulting on Euro Debt and announcing that they intend to start from a clean slate with a Drachma based economy with low levels of loans from Russia for investment purposes? The Ruble loans to start once the Ruble-Drachma exchange rate stabilises?
Borrowing from Russia to get the economy going would involve much smaller amounts than borrowing to pay off Euro debt.
Just a random thought, I don't claim any economic credentials
Neither the Russians nor the Chinese would be lending any money without getting some concrete form of collateral in their physical hands - ie actual land, mineral exploitation rights, fishing rights, harvested crops or whatever. Even then the repayment terms they would set would be so arduous that Greece would be almost certain to default. You only have to look at the way the Chinese behave in Africa to see this.
Greece is exceptionally fond of two countries. Serbia and Russia. Politically, religiously and culturally.
If Russia had the two bases on Cyprus instead of the UK, Cyprus would still be a unified island.
Putin is exceptionally respectful of Greece and Greece vice versa.
Do I think Russia will help Greece? I don't think the Germans will allow it.
Well, I dare say I know more about the history of it than you do, but the Russians have never ever let sentimentality come between them and money. The Russians will give the Greeks money in exchange for a Mediterranean port; they will not give the Greeks money so they can continue to retire at 50, have no-show civil service jobs and get away with not paying their taxes.
No you clearly don't. Clearly.
No one is saying Russia will write blank cheques for Greek pensions, but to say something like:
''If the Greeks think the Germans are bad, just wait till they try the Russians''
Shows a terminal lack of knowledge and understanding of the Greek and Russian psyches.
Your 'knowledge' has a few errors. Greeks do not retire at 50, and most Greeks with a job pay taxes same way we do, it's taken from their pay before they see it. There is a problem with rich Greeks dodging tax, but, as the EU and IMF have noted, the government in power since the bail out has done nothing to correct that.
As for Russia, if Greece seeks their help, should they have not gained concessions from the EU, I think it likely Russia would be generous. It would drive a wedge between EU countries over the sanctions imposed because of Ukraine. It would make some in other indebted countries think there can be an alternative to EU imposed austerity, and advance Russia's international standing.
Though I think the EU will compromise with Greece, they'd be daft not to.
Greece has a massive self employed workforce. There si a direct correlation between the self employed and tax avoidance/evasion.
Link Link Over 30% in the public sector retiring before 55.
If you think the average person in Greece is poor you should compare that to how poor the average Russian is they are not seeing much of any oil money.
Russian likes the idea of upsetting the Euro zone and wants to be in with Greece. A small loan they might offer but Greece needs massive long term support Russian just cannot provide that. It is all part of the bluff but they are not going to fool anyone.
The party go voted in on a policy in which they will stand up to the rest of Europe. So right now the party is acting all tough. Trying to show to their own public they will not back down etc. They want to be seen as having some small victory. The euro zone may actually give them something to save face in the end. If the public start rejecting this party it will just cause more chaos.
However overall when the crunch comes they will accept the money and the conditions that come with it. They don't really have a choice the country will run our of money and could end up frozen out of Europe.
Like I said a few days ago, even post-crisis the Greeks are still better off than many EU states like Bulgaria, Romania, the Baltic Countries etc, all of whom the Greeks demand to help them out. The Greek political system is so corrupt it cannot be reformed except by destruction.
But that was my earlier point, if Greece defaulted on their Euro debit and effectively said "we're not paying anything further until our economy improves", could Russia provide smaller loans to the Greek Gov't, not to pay back the Euro debit but for Greece to spend on getting their economy going. Perhaps even with strings attached which means that a percentage of the loan has to be spend on Russian products?
Any such loan would be after Greece has adopted the Drachma, devalued and balanced tax intake against Gov't spend (excluding debt repayments).
Nobody, not even the Russians, would lend the Greeks anything after they defaulted on their present loans. Any money they give them would be doled out on a strict cash in hand basis in exchange for, oh, just off the top of my head, exclusive possession of an island with a deep water harbour, submarine pens and land suitable for building an air base.
In theory I'd agree, but (and apologies for changing the emphasis in the quote) you say 'would' not 'could'.
If there is nothing in international law that could prevent the Greeks from defaulting on debt to EU banks and institutions while accepting a loan from Russian banks and institutions and refusing to use said loan to pay the EU debt ...
It boils down to whether Putin wants to hurt the EU economically, I'm sure he doesn't, afterall it's not like the EU has tried to hurt Russia economically recently... oh wait.
If they simply don't pay the creditors, they have around 65 billion left which will last till the end of the year..