I'm sorry but I can't really believe that. For that to be true we have to be willing to believe that 14.9% of voters switched from Tory to UKIP and 17.6% of voters switched from LibDem to UKIP. While the former is quite plausible, the latter (and a higher percentage too) is laughable.
Alternatively we have to believe that 6.9K Labour voters stayed at home, 9K LibDem voters stayed at home, and the full UKIP result comes from 2010's UKIP, BNP and 9K of Tory votes. Again, technically plausible but highly unlikely.
The truth is more likely that some Labour voters switched to UKIP, with this effect being masked somewhat by the number of LibDem voters switching to Labour.
This is exactly what happened in Middleton. A lot of Labour's 'traditional', older supporters voted UKIP whilst former Lib Dems voted tactically to keep Labour in.
This is exactly what happened in Middleton. A lot of Labour's 'traditional', older supporters voted UKIP whilst former Lib Dems voted tactically to keep Labour in.
Well, last time this 'older traditional Labour supporter' voted Lib dem for the first (and last) time in his life in an attempt to keep the Tories out (as I had recently moved from a very safe Labour seat to a staunch Tory strong hold up here in the NE) and even though I know it's utterly futile in this seat, as a pig in a blue rosette would win, I shall vote Labour if for no other reason than a matter of conscience.
Ashcroft actually replied to me on Twitter.
He seems to think people don't care about the debates as much as the media.
I wonder given the tory lead will they (labour) move on now and just allow the no show to have the effect ?
Ashcroft actually replied to me on Twitter.
He seems to think people don't care about the debates as much as the media.
I wonder given the tory lead will they (labour) move on now and just allow the no show to have the effect ?
I think that the manifestos and the Budget are of prime importance.
Doing well last time in the debates did Clegg no good at all.
Must be honest Dying to see the Libdem numbers this week.
They have all but vanished and only appear to say something that never makes headlines after they stop speaking
What jobs would the leaders be best suited to outside politics? Mr Cameron would be a headmaster, or a company director “in charge of things”. Mr Farage would almost certainly be a pub landlord, and a good one at that, or would run his own small but successful business. The groups struggled to place Mr Clegg in the outside world: probably something administrative or perhaps a supermarket store manager. Mr Miliband’s ideal job – and this from people who did not know of his previous career – was to be a university professor. Make of that what you will.
Scottish snippet for the week - SNP up to 54%, 70% of Scots would be happy to have a coalition between Labour and the SNP, compared to 27% in England.:)
Scottish snippet for the week - SNP up to 54%, 70% of Scots would be happy to have a coalition between Labour and the SNP, compared to 27% in England.:)
Actually the figures don't specify a coalition partner for the SNP - just whether respondents would be happy to see the SNP as part of a coalition government. They might be just as happy with an SNP/Conservative coalition
A lovely little question that snuck its way into the Ashcroft polls - it shows that outside the Labour Party, on balance people believe they would have been worse off under Labour. Exactly the kind of mentality that will count come election day
Worth noting the views of the swing voters here...
Exactly the kind of mentality that will count come election day
But if people believe that nothing would change under either Labour or the Tories, wouldn't that make them more inclined to vote for a fringe party or not vote at all rather than vote Conservative?
Comments
8 Friday, 9 today. Libdems on a roll.
It's the Lib Dem surge!!!
;-)
The way ashcroft fluctuates, it could have the greens ahead!
Must be all the students moving away from Ed's ridiculous fee-cap pledge!:p
Joking aside, I expect the lib dems to poll in the mid teens come election day. Probably 14%.
They have a lot of undecided ex voters.
You do realize that despite 'cleggmania" at the last election the Lib Dems actually lost 5 seats?
This is exactly what happened in Middleton. A lot of Labour's 'traditional', older supporters voted UKIP whilst former Lib Dems voted tactically to keep Labour in.
No In regards of raising a leaders profile
I really can see the Green Leader struggling in these debates, She seems decent enough
Well, last time this 'older traditional Labour supporter' voted Lib dem for the first (and last) time in his life in an attempt to keep the Tories out (as I had recently moved from a very safe Labour seat to a staunch Tory strong hold up here in the NE) and even though I know it's utterly futile in this seat, as a pig in a blue rosette would win, I shall vote Labour if for no other reason than a matter of conscience.
Mainly due to boundary changes which negatively effected the Lib Dems in almost ever seat that they lost. Surprising that isn't it.
Breakdown on last time
CON - 34% (-)
LAB - 30% (-1)
UKIP - 15% (+1)
GRN - 8% (+1)
LDEM - 5% (-2)
Not half as surprising as the fact that the Lib-Dems then voted a couple of years later to keep those same boundary changes in place.
Be interesting to see how these numbers tally with the Yougov dailies this week.
He seems to think people don't care about the debates as much as the media.
I wonder given the tory lead will they (labour) move on now and just allow the no show to have the effect ?
I think that the manifestos and the Budget are of prime importance.
Doing well last time in the debates did Clegg no good at all.
that's very true. If they drop below 5% this week in the dailies...:o
That press conference today Uncle vince looks already defeated
Must be honest Dying to see the Libdem numbers this week.
They have all but vanished and only appear to say something that never makes headlines after they stop speaking
He's had a good innings, perhaps he had dreams of returning to the Labour fold and becoming their Chancellor.:D
link to it
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-national-poll-con-34-lab-30-lib-dem-5-ukip-15-green-8/#more-7768
full data tables http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ANP-150309X-Full-data-tables.pdf
Scottish snippet for the week - SNP up to 54%, 70% of Scots would be happy to have a coalition between Labour and the SNP, compared to 27% in England.:)
Actually the figures don't specify a coalition partner for the SNP - just whether respondents would be happy to see the SNP as part of a coalition government. They might be just as happy with an SNP/Conservative coalition
Worth noting the views of the swing voters here...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_quKtMUIAA7rH-.jpg
But if people believe that nothing would change under either Labour or the Tories, wouldn't that make them more inclined to vote for a fringe party or not vote at all rather than vote Conservative?