Stewart Hosie getting brillo'ed on DP today. Point Andrew was making is why are SNP saying no nukes but are happy to be part of NATO that would put Scotland under the NATO nuclear umbrella.
Yes another MP not answering questions properly. Andrew is really getting annoying with them all. And I don't blame him.
Today, we saw Secretary of State for Defence Fallon say that Miliband had "stabbed his own brother in the back" to lead Labour and that he would he stab the UK in the back over national security.
That is highly negative and personal and I don't think it'll help the Conservatives for a number of reasons:
1. It is a pretty vicious personal attack;
2. Defence is not a main public priority issue - the economy, the NHS and immigration are;
3. This won't break the stalemate between the two main parties and, if anything, campaigning with this style of over the top personal attack in the UK is more likely to depress the party's ratings;
4. They ought to be giving positive reasons to vote Conservative on May 7.
That last aspect has been mentioned by jittery Conservative backbenchers and having half a dozen snappy things that the Conservatives will do for low and middle income earners will probably be more productive in the few weeks that are left.
For an overall majority what kind of poll numbers should a party expect? 40%+? .. Milliband atm looks like he has the Tories rattled .. Report on Irish news a few days back where Cameron said he was going making it personal - big big mistake IMO.
Realistically if Labour fall just short who might they enter government with? Lib Dems?
That looks like a standard uniform national swing prediction in which case a bit of correction needs to take place such as the moving of 20 seats from the Labour total to be added to the Others total (specifically the SNP) and that would be a more realistic projection of what could happen.
For an overall majority what kind of poll numbers should a party expect? 40%+? .. Milliband atm looks like he has the Tories rattled .. Report on Irish news a few days back where Cameron said he was going making it personal - big big mistake IMO.
Realistically if Labour fall just short who might they enter government with? Lib Dems?
^^^ I do so agree with this.
Ed Miliband character assassination has left the Conservatives trailing behind by 2% and that policy was condemned by UKIP's Nigel Farage earlier on today. It is quite clearly not working and yet they seem to persist with that counterproductive policy.
The Conservatives have offered a 5 year rail fare freeze and they need about five more of those positive 'improving your life' policies, which are repeated and repeated, and they might just start to turn things around although they are leaving it very late to do that! The Conservatives have to give voters positive reasons to vote for them and they're just not doing that right now.
On the majority aspect, the nearer a party gets to the high 30s in the opinion polls, the more likely it is to be able to secure a majority although it'll probably be a modest one. As for likely supporting partners, Labour might be able to engage with any of the SNP, Liberal Democrats or DUP if they fall short of a majority although the latter will come with a rather large grant price tag. One other point is worth making and that is that the combination of a neutral speaker and 5 no-show Sinn Fein MPs means that the real winning post is lowered to 322 seats in the House of Commons.
For an overall majority what kind of poll numbers should a party expect? 40%+? .. Milliband atm looks like he has the Tories rattled .. Report on Irish news a few days back where Cameron said he was going making it personal - big big mistake IMO.
Realistically if Labour fall just short who might they enter government with? Lib Dems?
I don't know. Will they want the whoring LibDems after they've crawled out of the Tories' bed?
Re. percentages of the vote, owing to the way voters are distributed and constituency boundaries, Tories need a higher % of the vote to get a majority.
They need probably about 40% whereas Labour need about 36 or 37%
Ed Miliband character assassination has left the Conservatives trailing behind by 2% and that policy was condemned by UKIP's Nigel Farage earlier on today. It is quite clearly not working and yet they seem to persist with that counterproductive policy.
The Conservatives have offered a 5 year rail fare freeze and they need about five more of those positive 'improving your life' policies, which are repeated and repeated, and they might just start to turn things around although they are leaving it very late to do that! The Conservatives have to give voters positive reasons to vote for them and they're just not doing that right now.
On the majority aspect, the nearer a party gets to the high 30s in the opinion polls, the more likely it is to be able to secure a majority although it'll probably be a modest one. As for likely supporting partners, Labour might be able to engage with any of the SNP, Liberal Democrats or DUP if they fall short of a majority although the latter will come with a rather large grant price tag. One other point is worth making and that is that the combination of a neutral speaker and 5 no-show Sinn Fein MPs means that the real winning post is lowered to 322 seats in the House of Commons.
Yes negative politics usually ends up backfiring as the electorate see it as scaremongering - this will be a very interesting election from an outsiders perspective.
I'm still trying to get my head around the fact the Scotland, Wales and NI are basically irrelevant in the grand scheme of things in a London government but the people still go out to vote for parties which will not end up in power - a very foreign concept to me!
I don't know. Will they want the whoring LibDems after they've crawled out of the Tories' bed?
Re. percentages of the vote, owing to the way voters are distributed and constituency boundaries, Tories need a higher % of the vote to get a majority.
They need probably about 40% whereas Labour need about 36 or 37%
So Milliband maybe not that far from a majority government? (if latest polls are to be believed)... I assume the Lib Dems will have no problem re-entering government with the Tories if the numbers stack up?
Stewart Hosie getting brillo'ed on DP today. Point Andrew was making is why are SNP saying no nukes but are happy to be part of NATO that would put Scotland under the NATO nuclear umbrella.
I know Neil has to play devil's advocate but he totally ignored the fact that most NATO countries don't have nuclear weapons.
Populus' Rick Nye was on TV earlier on today and he indicated that people might end up making their firm voting decision on polling day and that it could be too late for the opinion polls to pick that up or for political parties to do anything about it.
Populus' Rick Nye was on TV earlier on today and he indicated that people might end up making their firm voting decision on polling day and that it could be too late for the opinion polls to pick that up or for political parties to do anything about it.
Perhaps Populus or one of the other polling companies could start asking the question "if you haven't decided who to vote for, when do you anticipate you will?"
If there are lots of votes still up for grabs late on, though, expect the final few days of the campaign to be absolutely smothering as every party throws everything at their opponents and the electorate to get as many swing voters to fall in their favour.
Then again, Rick Nye could have just been making a pre-emptive defence of the campaign polling if it turns out not to reflect the actual outcome of the election.
Perhaps Populus or one of the other polling companies could start asking the question "if you haven't decided who to vote for, when do you anticipate you will?"
If there are lots of votes still up for grabs late on, though, expect the final few days of the campaign to be absolutely smothering as every party throws everything at their opponents and the electorate to get as many swing voters to fall in their favour.
Then again, Rick Nye could have just been making a pre-emptive defence of the campaign polling if it turns out not to reflect the actual outcome of the election.
I don't think it was that but more a reflection that the two largest parties are pretty much evenly matched in the polls and that voters firming up their decision in the polling station could have an effect on the outcome that's not recordable by any of the pollsters.
Stewart Hosie getting brillo'ed on DP today. Point Andrew was as making is why are SNP saying no nukes but are happy to be part of NATO that would put Scotland under the NATO nuclear umbrella.
Isn't that SNP Policy all over. Why spend billions of your own when you can get NATO or - the English - to bankroll it instead!:D
Isn't that SNP Policy all over. Why spend billions of your own when you can get NATO or - the English - to bankroll it instead!:D
As has already been mentioned, only a very small minority of NATO members have nuclear weapons. Is the same accusation being levelled at those who don't have said weapons?
Plus, NATO should still exist, whether any countries have nuclear weapons or not. The emphasis should be on NATO, and the world as a whole, doing away with their weapons.
Comments
Yes another MP not answering questions properly. Andrew is really getting annoying with them all. And I don't blame him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFSqzuXt3HE
Please share around it deserves to go viral. Some kids helped make it.
That is highly negative and personal and I don't think it'll help the Conservatives for a number of reasons:
1. It is a pretty vicious personal attack;
2. Defence is not a main public priority issue - the economy, the NHS and immigration are;
3. This won't break the stalemate between the two main parties and, if anything, campaigning with this style of over the top personal attack in the UK is more likely to depress the party's ratings;
4. They ought to be giving positive reasons to vote Conservative on May 7.
That last aspect has been mentioned by jittery Conservative backbenchers and having half a dozen snappy things that the Conservatives will do for low and middle income earners will probably be more productive in the few weeks that are left.
Doncaster North:
• David Stewart Allen - English Democrats - “Putting England First!”
• Penny Baker - Liberal Democrats
• Nick The Flying Brick - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• Mark Peter Fletcher - The Conservative Party Candidate
• Mary Jackson - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
• Pete Kennedy - Green Party
• Kim Parkinson - UK Independence Party (UKIP)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm
It's going back to 2010 but quite fun to use.
I used the latest poll, which yielded the following results on the seat calculator:
Labour: 349 seats
Tories: 249
LibDems: 23
SNP/Plaid/UKIP/Green/Other: 29
Realistically if Labour fall just short who might they enter government with? Lib Dems?
That looks like a standard uniform national swing prediction in which case a bit of correction needs to take place such as the moving of 20 seats from the Labour total to be added to the Others total (specifically the SNP) and that would be a more realistic projection of what could happen.
^^^ I do so agree with this.
Ed Miliband character assassination has left the Conservatives trailing behind by 2% and that policy was condemned by UKIP's Nigel Farage earlier on today. It is quite clearly not working and yet they seem to persist with that counterproductive policy.
The Conservatives have offered a 5 year rail fare freeze and they need about five more of those positive 'improving your life' policies, which are repeated and repeated, and they might just start to turn things around although they are leaving it very late to do that! The Conservatives have to give voters positive reasons to vote for them and they're just not doing that right now.
On the majority aspect, the nearer a party gets to the high 30s in the opinion polls, the more likely it is to be able to secure a majority although it'll probably be a modest one. As for likely supporting partners, Labour might be able to engage with any of the SNP, Liberal Democrats or DUP if they fall short of a majority although the latter will come with a rather large grant price tag. One other point is worth making and that is that the combination of a neutral speaker and 5 no-show Sinn Fein MPs means that the real winning post is lowered to 322 seats in the House of Commons.
I don't know. Will they want the whoring LibDems after they've crawled out of the Tories' bed?
Re. percentages of the vote, owing to the way voters are distributed and constituency boundaries, Tories need a higher % of the vote to get a majority.
They need probably about 40% whereas Labour need about 36 or 37%
I'm still trying to get my head around the fact the Scotland, Wales and NI are basically irrelevant in the grand scheme of things in a London government but the people still go out to vote for parties which will not end up in power - a very foreign concept to me!
I know Neil has to play devil's advocate but he totally ignored the fact that most NATO countries don't have nuclear weapons.
If that is the case, then the most reliable poll to look out for will be the post-10pm exit poll on 7 May. The 2010 general election exit poll turned out to be pretty accurate: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#Exit_poll
Perhaps Populus or one of the other polling companies could start asking the question "if you haven't decided who to vote for, when do you anticipate you will?"
If there are lots of votes still up for grabs late on, though, expect the final few days of the campaign to be absolutely smothering as every party throws everything at their opponents and the electorate to get as many swing voters to fall in their favour.
Then again, Rick Nye could have just been making a pre-emptive defence of the campaign polling if it turns out not to reflect the actual outcome of the election.
I don't think it was that but more a reflection that the two largest parties are pretty much evenly matched in the polls and that voters firming up their decision in the polling station could have an effect on the outcome that's not recordable by any of the pollsters.
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/587365322715492353
Edit: Oh darn, it was spotted and corrected before print.
http://votemichaelgreen.com
http://order-order.com/2015/04/15/exclusive-not-the-candidate-ed-is-sikh-ing/#_@/tO1QiuV0ZpCXZA
Quite funny actually.
Isn't that SNP Policy all over. Why spend billions of your own when you can get NATO or - the English - to bankroll it instead!:D
Well, the "English" are happy to bankroll it as long as it isn't near any English city.
I have already said on this subject, most NATO countries don't have nuclear weapons and the SNP policy is to get rid of ALL nuclear weapons.
https://twitter.com/billybragg/status/587980402456932352
"Natalie Bennett was ridiculed for saying Greens would build 500,000 homes for £2.7bn. Today Tories say they'll build 400,000 for just £1bn"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTkKJT_BuHA
Oh dear! Let's hope she's more on message when she's knocking on peoples doors.. assuming she is!
I'm sure the tories pledge was to free the land to start building them, they didn't pledge to actually build them for that amount.
He did look annoyed when the guy pulled out the Sturgeon mask
As has already been mentioned, only a very small minority of NATO members have nuclear weapons. Is the same accusation being levelled at those who don't have said weapons?
Plus, NATO should still exist, whether any countries have nuclear weapons or not. The emphasis should be on NATO, and the world as a whole, doing away with their weapons.