Conservatives 295
Labour 265
SNP 35
LibDems 30
Plaid 4
UKIP 2
Green 1
NI parties 18
I think most gains for Labour will be London (eg Hendon, Brent Central, Enfield North and Croydon Central) and the Mets, as people are more used to Labour representation there. A notable case in point is West Yorkshire (Leeds NW, Pudsey, Bradford East, Bradford West, Calder Valley, Dewsbury, and maybe Elmet & Rothwell and Keighley). I doubt they will win many other "Middle England" seats that were theirs in 1997/2001/05 but Tory in 1992 & 2010. So, places like Hastings, Harlow, Worcester and Chester seem likely to remain Tory. Seats that were Tory in 1992 but Labour in 2010, such as Exeter and Harrow West, are likely to remain Labour. Seats that were Labour in 1992 and Tory in 2010, such as Warwickshire North and Pendle, could also be easy gains for Labour.
I think the LibDems will lose all seats they gained from Labour in 2005/10, and a few to the Tories which were recent gains or where they have done well in local elections (such as Eastbourne, Wells and Sutton). They could face wipe-out in Wales, losing Brecon & Radnor to the Tories, Cardiff Central to Labour and Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru. In Scotland they will hold at least Orkney & Shetland and probably also Charles Kennedy's seat and the Borders seat of Michael Moore. They seem certain to lose Gordon and Inverness, and regrettably also East Dunbartonshire. Despite the London losses I have predicted, I think Simon Hughes and Vince Cable are safe in Bermondsey and Twickenham.
The 2 seats I predict for UKIP are Clacton and Thanet South.
A lot of people are mocking the Conservatives for a lack of surge but questions have to be asked of Labour - an unpopular Government which contains their biggest opposition in terms of a national left wing party whose vote is now falling through the floor and yet they still can't get to the magic total of 326. I don't buy the press having that much influence nowadays, I think the papers are treated as little more than comics by the majority now.
This article was updated on 13 January 2015 to take into account more recent claimant count statistics from the DWP.
Working age claimants hold the balance of power in enough marginal seats to potentially decide who governs Britain at the next election, and yet they are treated by politicians with such contempt that you might imagine they had no vote at all. Could that all be about to change?
I also remember reading a while back that there are something like 19 Tory/coalition marginals in which the number of people being punished for spare room crime is higher than the current Tory majority, really don't see many of them saying "yes please" to a continuation of the spare room fine.
A lot of people are mocking the Conservatives for a lack of surge but questions have to be asked of Labour - an unpopular Government which contains their biggest opposition in terms of a national left wing party whose vote is now falling through the floor and yet they still can't get to the magic total of 326. I don't buy the press having that much influence nowadays, I think the papers are treated as little more than comics by the majority now.
Their on course to gain around 10 more seats than 2010, although reading some posts on here you'd think he's on the brink of a landslide
A lot of people are mocking the Conservatives for a lack of surge but questions have to be asked of Labour - an unpopular Government which contains their biggest opposition in terms of a national left wing party whose vote is now falling through the floor and yet they still can't get to the magic total of 326. I don't buy the press having that much influence nowadays, I think the papers are treated as little more than comics by the majority now.
Labour have recently come off back of three terms in power. They haven't lost to a majority for 20 odd years.
It would be very odd for them just to walk straight back in, they don't have automatic right to govern you know. In fact, they have no right to be anywhere near stopping a Tory majority right now. It's supposed to be the Tory turn now.
It is a amazing feat, you manage to whinge on every post about paying a small premimum for having an additional room in your heavily subsidised state owned property
It is a amazing feat, you manage to whinge on every post about paying a small premimum for having an additional room in your heavily subsidised state owned property
Hey up, I was wondering where my little follower had got to recently, heart just not in it any more?
In my predictions in post 1077 earlier this evening, I meant that the Tories could gain Kingston & Surbiton from the LibDems, not Sutton. Sutton is possible too but less likely.
Doubt there will much change in the polls for a whole, big crunch day is Thursday when Cameron, Miliband and Clegg appear separately on Question Time answering questions from the audience then there's the 3rd Scottish debate next weekend. Ofcause if the royal baby is born Thursday that will make things interesting as far as Question time goes
Labour have recently come off back of three terms in power. They haven't lost to a majority for 20 odd years.
It would be very odd for them just to walk straight back in, they don't have automatic right to govern you know. In fact, they have no right to be anywhere near stopping a Tory majority right now. It's supposed to be the Tory turn now.
They don't have an automatic right to govern but, back in 2010 prior to the election result, it was said that whoever gained power would have to make some very unpopular decisions. And so they have. For me, Labour should be more on the front foot than they are considering.
I do think you have a point about 'odd to walk straight back in'. It's my belief that, if history was to repeat itself, then Labour should have won in 2010 by a narrow margin (a la 1992 for the Conservatives) and basically make themselves unelectable for a long spell due to unpopular decisions they would have had to make coupled with simply tiring of being in power. Plus it would have probably given the Conservatives a kick up the backside (like Labour had under Kinnock, Smith and Blair) to sort out the party for once and for all. Cameron was supposed to be the Kinnock figure, not the Blair.
The best thing to happen for Labour was not forming a government in 2010.
In my predictions in post 1077 earlier this evening, I meant that the Tories could gain Kingston & Surbiton from the LibDems, not Sutton. Sutton is possible too but less likely.
I noticed you had the SNP on 35 seats. That seems to be below the low end of the numbers being predicted. Most are saying between 40 and 45. What is your reasoning for this?
I am not saying you are wrong just interested.
Doubt there will much change in the polls for a whole, big crunch day is Thursday when Cameron, Miliband and Clegg appear separately on Question Time answering questions from the audience then there's the 3rd Scottish debate next weekend. Ofcause if the royal baby is born Thursday that will make things interesting as far as Question time goes
It really shouldn't, it's a birth not a death and as such is already widely known. If it influences anything it would be a poor reflection on us collectively
It really shouldn't, it's a birth not a death and as such is already widely known. If it influences anything it would be a poor reflection on us collectively
Nah it won't influence anything, I more meant dominating the news, so might be less coverage of the question time interviews
Nah it won't influence anything, I more meant dominating the news, so might be less coverage of the question time interviews
Thats possible I will agree. Thing is how much more than gender, weight and time of birth plus health of mother and child is actually news. Should be 3 minutes per bulletin max, no one needs to hear from the royal tragics who wait outside for a 2 second glimpse of nothing that makes them feel part of the event.
"It's an SNP avalanche : Sturgeon's party leads by THIRTY-TWO points in new TNS poll
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (TNS, 1st-19th April) :
SNP 54% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)"
"It's an SNP avalanche : Sturgeon's party leads by THIRTY-TWO points in new TNS poll
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (TNS, 1st-19th April) :
SNP 54% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)"
"It's an SNP avalanche : Sturgeon's party leads by THIRTY-TWO points in new TNS poll
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (TNS, 1st-19th April) :
SNP 54% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)"
"It's an SNP avalanche : Sturgeon's party leads by THIRTY-TWO points in new TNS poll
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (TNS, 1st-19th April) :
SNP 54% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)"
If that were to be the result, no-one could realistically claim that the SNP don't have a mandate...
Comments
Conservatives 295
Labour 265
SNP 35
LibDems 30
Plaid 4
UKIP 2
Green 1
NI parties 18
I think most gains for Labour will be London (eg Hendon, Brent Central, Enfield North and Croydon Central) and the Mets, as people are more used to Labour representation there. A notable case in point is West Yorkshire (Leeds NW, Pudsey, Bradford East, Bradford West, Calder Valley, Dewsbury, and maybe Elmet & Rothwell and Keighley). I doubt they will win many other "Middle England" seats that were theirs in 1997/2001/05 but Tory in 1992 & 2010. So, places like Hastings, Harlow, Worcester and Chester seem likely to remain Tory. Seats that were Tory in 1992 but Labour in 2010, such as Exeter and Harrow West, are likely to remain Labour. Seats that were Labour in 1992 and Tory in 2010, such as Warwickshire North and Pendle, could also be easy gains for Labour.
I think the LibDems will lose all seats they gained from Labour in 2005/10, and a few to the Tories which were recent gains or where they have done well in local elections (such as Eastbourne, Wells and Sutton). They could face wipe-out in Wales, losing Brecon & Radnor to the Tories, Cardiff Central to Labour and Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru. In Scotland they will hold at least Orkney & Shetland and probably also Charles Kennedy's seat and the Borders seat of Michael Moore. They seem certain to lose Gordon and Inverness, and regrettably also East Dunbartonshire. Despite the London losses I have predicted, I think Simon Hughes and Vince Cable are safe in Bermondsey and Twickenham.
The 2 seats I predict for UKIP are Clacton and Thanet South.
It gets even more interesting,
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/how-private-renters-could-swing-election-labour
and,....
http://www.benefitsandwork.co.uk/news/2555-could-claimants-choose-the-next-govenment
I also remember reading a while back that there are something like 19 Tory/coalition marginals in which the number of people being punished for spare room crime is higher than the current Tory majority, really don't see many of them saying "yes please" to a continuation of the spare room fine.
Their on course to gain around 10 more seats than 2010, although reading some posts on here you'd think he's on the brink of a landslide
Hardly a great result.
The Tories are on the run.
Labour have recently come off back of three terms in power. They haven't lost to a majority for 20 odd years.
It would be very odd for them just to walk straight back in, they don't have automatic right to govern you know. In fact, they have no right to be anywhere near stopping a Tory majority right now. It's supposed to be the Tory turn now.
Hardly, but they certainly need to be doing much better if they have any hope left.
Hey up, I was wondering where my little follower had got to recently, heart just not in it any more?
Same goes for Labour. Hardly on course for a Landslide are they?
Can't actually see where I have said they are?
You could wonder the same thing about the Daily Mirror and Survation.:p
They don't have an automatic right to govern but, back in 2010 prior to the election result, it was said that whoever gained power would have to make some very unpopular decisions. And so they have. For me, Labour should be more on the front foot than they are considering.
I do think you have a point about 'odd to walk straight back in'. It's my belief that, if history was to repeat itself, then Labour should have won in 2010 by a narrow margin (a la 1992 for the Conservatives) and basically make themselves unelectable for a long spell due to unpopular decisions they would have had to make coupled with simply tiring of being in power. Plus it would have probably given the Conservatives a kick up the backside (like Labour had under Kinnock, Smith and Blair) to sort out the party for once and for all. Cameron was supposed to be the Kinnock figure, not the Blair.
The best thing to happen for Labour was not forming a government in 2010.
Well, I suppose it's one way of putting the fear of <undefined> into their readers and motivating them to go out and vote...
I noticed you had the SNP on 35 seats. That seems to be below the low end of the numbers being predicted. Most are saying between 40 and 45. What is your reasoning for this?
I am not saying you are wrong just interested.
It really shouldn't, it's a birth not a death and as such is already widely known. If it influences anything it would be a poor reflection on us collectively
Nah it won't influence anything, I more meant dominating the news, so might be less coverage of the question time interviews
Thats possible I will agree. Thing is how much more than gender, weight and time of birth plus health of mother and child is actually news. Should be 3 minutes per bulletin max, no one needs to hear from the royal tragics who wait outside for a 2 second glimpse of nothing that makes them feel part of the event.
"It's an SNP avalanche : Sturgeon's party leads by THIRTY-TWO points in new TNS poll
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (TNS, 1st-19th April) :
SNP 54% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)"
Looks like a wipe out for Labour in Scotland.
wow, would that completely wipe Lab out possibly?
If that were to be the result, no-one could realistically claim that the SNP don't have a mandate...
Do you think them numbers would completely wipe Labour out in scotland?