There's something rather fitting about YouGov's polling during the whole of this campaign that their grand finale super-poll should produce a tie.
Incidentally, it was mentioned earlier that the odds of Cameron remaining PM were shortening - and I've noticed that Betfair have brought him in to 1.9 with Miliband drifting out to 2.12.
Should anything be read into that?
Dan Hodges
Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation.
Is it only YouGov who are doing a "forecast" that is radically different from their "normal" polls?
The YouGov Forecast is:
Con: 284 seats
Lab: 263 seats
Their NowCast is a tie on 276.
I don't understand what the point of two polling models is, unless YouGov are trying to cover all their bases this time... (they are)
Nowcast is unscientific.
UKIP supporters were tagging onto this a week ago when it was showing big wins for their party. It went down to just one today, and all of a sudden they've gone rather quiet on the subject
Something else to factor in... apparently there is a rather high number of undecided voters.. even tonight. And there is also some talk of "Shy Tories" .. ie.. people who will vote CON but don't want to admit it during polling.
Could all be grasping at straws however.
am I the one who thinks the whole concept of 'shy' tory voters is a load of rubbish?
Interesting that the broadcasters are not required to remove archive party and issue reports from their websites - as the BBC definitely did last time.
(They could have just decided to do it themselves, to be fair.)
So the experts have had their say about seat predictions but do you think you could do a better job? Then try the for fun seat projection competition - many of you already have - entries close 9pm Thursday
Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation.
And his mum is Oscar winning actress and Hampstead Labour MP Glenda Jackson. Without those connections he probably couldn't even get a job with a local rag.
Apparently Labour but has spent 4 years trashing Ed Miliband. Sorry I have no time for him.
May2015/New Statesman:
CON 273
LAB 268
LIB DEM 28
SNP 56
UKIP 2
GREEN 1
OTHERS 4
^^^ That is probably the most accurate prediction we've seen in this thread so far because it matches the tied vote share and I would expect the two largest parties to be pretty close to each other in terms of numbers of MPs.
EXCL: Final YouGov/Sun poll for #GE2015 - most important issues for voters: Economy 48%, Health 42%, Immigration 36% http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-cou
nts-as-major-sun-poll-shows-labour-and-tories-tied/ …
Poll by @survation has glimmer of hope for Labour: undecideds have been breaking 31%Lab, 23%Con #GE2015
So looks like undecideds are coming out in favour of Labour, expect get your vote out to big big tomorrow, and expect Labour ground team to be out in full force in the marginals
Comments
Dan Hodges
Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation.
CON 31.4% LAB 31.4% UKIP 15.7% LD 9.6% GRE 4.8 SNP 4.7% PC 0.4 AP 1.9%
No, last YouGov poll has them on ten.
Hmmm. Some dodgy rounding going on with the earlier tweet!
The YouGov Forecast is:
Con: 284 seats
Lab: 263 seats
Their NowCast is a tie on 276.
I don't understand what the point of two polling models is, unless YouGov are trying to cover all their bases this time... (they are)
It's all very odd, Kellner thinks there will be just a small swing in the marginals but unless he has evidence of that, he's just guessing
Nowcast is unscientific.
UKIP supporters were tagging onto this a week ago when it was showing big wins for their party. It went down to just one today, and all of a sudden they've gone rather quiet on the subject
Obviously not related to Dan Tories will win by at last 7% Hodges.
am I the one who thinks the whole concept of 'shy' tory voters is a load of rubbish?
I suppose he would argue that his extensive experience of watching polls translate to election results gives him expertise to make these calls.
However, the feedback from Lord Aschcroft's own polls and the reports from London say otherwise:
Battersea - Conservatives leading - no change: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/battersea/
North Cornwall - Lib Dems leading - no change: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/north-cornwall-3/
Norwich North - Labour now ahead: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/norwich-north-2/
Peterborough - Labour now ahead: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/peterborough/
Wirral West - Labour now ahead: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/wirral-west/
Red London is turning redder. The Conservatives should be terrified
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/596051488872538113
CON 273
LAB 268
LIB DEM 28
SNP 56
UKIP 2
GREEN 1
OTHERS 4
Interesting that the broadcasters are not required to remove archive party and issue reports from their websites - as the BBC definitely did last time.
(They could have just decided to do it themselves, to be fair.)
Huge score for UKIP a day before. Sadly they'll get next to no seats...
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=2069432
And his mum is Oscar winning actress and Hampstead Labour MP Glenda Jackson. Without those connections he probably couldn't even get a job with a local rag.
Apparently Labour but has spent 4 years trashing Ed Miliband. Sorry I have no time for him.
^^^ That is probably the most accurate prediction we've seen in this thread so far because it matches the tied vote share and I would expect the two largest parties to be pretty close to each other in terms of numbers of MPs.
EXCL: Final YouGov/Sun poll for #GE2015 - most important issues for voters: Economy 48%, Health 42%, Immigration 36% http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-cou
nts-as-major-sun-poll-shows-labour-and-tories-tied/ …
Poll by @survation has glimmer of hope for Labour: undecideds have been breaking 31%Lab, 23%Con #GE2015
Latest Scottish Westminster poll (Survation):
SNP - 49% (-2)
LAB - 25% (-1)
CON - 16% (+2)
LDEM - 6% (+1)
[non-ballot paper method]
Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
Latest Scottish Westminster poll (Survation):
SNP - 46%
LAB - 26%
CON - 15%
LDEM - 7%
[ballot paper method]
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEWZnA8XIAAe9Yg.jpg