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Fears that UK is heading towards 'train crash' Brexit
TheEngineer
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Fears that UK is heading towards 'train crash' Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/06/fears-that-uk-is-heading-towards-train-crash-brexit
We can always resort to WTO rules though. Oh hang on a minute
So if you are a supporter of Brexit how much of a hit are you prepared to accept before you change your mind?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/06/fears-that-uk-is-heading-towards-train-crash-brexit
Sir Tim Barrow, Britain’s new permanent representative in Brussels, faces the daunting task of stopping what colleagues and critics suspect is a tumble towards a disorderly exit from the European Union.
Where once the choice was between hard and soft Brexit, the new worry in diplomatic and business circles is that the UK is heading for “train crash” Brexit, a scenario in which incompatible negotiating demands from Downing Street and the other 27 member states result in Britain walking away without a deal on either the terms of separation or future trading relations with the EU.
We can always resort to WTO rules though. Oh hang on a minute
The problem is that even moving to WTO tariffs would require agreement. Other signatories around the world would need to accept that Britain had a right to inherit the same rates negotiated with the EU. In the case of agriculture, where there are shared quotas in place to limit cheap imports, Britain would have to negotiate its share with French farmers or risk losing entire export markets.
“People like Fox suggest it will be an easy and painless process [to inherit WTO rules] but I am not really convinced of that,” said McGivern. “It will be relatively easy for industrial goods but not for agriculture. Because the pie has to be split, it becomes a zero-sum game.”
Many of the Tory sceptics pressuring Downing Street fear all this talk of transition arrangements is a trap to prevent the Brexit referendum result from being implemented.
“They are looking for ways they will be betrayed,” said Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “They don’t want to get bogged down. They would rather just take the economic hit.”
So if you are a supporter of Brexit how much of a hit are you prepared to accept before you change your mind?
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The deal is another matter. I honestly think if the EU gives is nothing and looks unreasonable then many would join the Brexit camp. We want limits to migration and to have the ability to make our own trade deals with countries outside the EU.
we're still a member of the WTO.
I am sure the French farmers will have no problem with us sharing their quotas. :rolleyes:
I know. It's just ludicrous to think Brexit will remove our status.
I remember reading some delusional post on this forum saying we'd go to Syria status.
Thank you for that insightful post on the most important event happening to this country for decades, one that will have consequences for generations.
French farmers are not going to stop the UK operating under WTO that's nonsense. We already joined before EU. We'd revert back to original status. To think they'd block that is insane.
Obviously the EU will want some form of deal otherwise they'd not get a penny.
Indeed, every search engine keyword search for "Brexit" will just produce a ream of DS threads started by you for the next couple of millennia.
The whole "denying reality" schtick from the Brexiters is getting quite boring now.
Not true. We all lost.
it's been discussed at all levels. The worst case scenario is we could be asked to pay compensation for having the wrong tariffs.
Yep. Compensation for being a member of the WTO which we where originally. This is all unprecedented so nobody knows what will happen.
I guarantee you though we will not be relegated to Syria status.
Even with the worst train crash in UK history, (Quintinshill rail disaster) thanks to the British spirit during the first world war the lines were re-opened within a very short space of time and operations returned to normal very quickly.
It's the same with most train crashes.
Is that the message that you are trying to convey?
(You must be a truly awful engineer, if you can't work how to repair a rail accident promptly)
The stuff the OP posts is not reality, though. It's pure conjecture.
It is the reality that faces the people trying to sort out this mess.
Indeed. There are solutions for most of the problems ahead but denying that they are problems in the first place doesn't help anyone.
It doesn't occur to you that
1) Certain sections of the media exaggerate the "mess". There's a difference between highlighting problems as they arise, and presenting conjecture as fact.
2) Sorting out "the mess" is what some people are paid to do, and they are quite able to do it.
Everything anyone does involves problems that have to be circumvented. Why single out Brexit? Staying in the EU would have been no different. C'ést la vie!
True. Just as there are people who are underestimating and dismissing the problems. We needs realists to take us forward.
Yes, we have people called "experts" but Team Leave don't want to hear from them
From what from WTO executives have said, Britain would have to re-negotiate the protocols under which it would be a member. There are over 160 countries that are members of the WTO and they decide who will be a member and on what terms.
One stumbling block is said to be agriculture, but if there enough countries who object is another matter.
Here are the dummies guide to joining the WTO.
We are already a member of the WTO. We don't need to join.
While true that we need to negotiate the tariffs and quotas, we are a fully paid up member of the WTO. This allows us to trade under WTO rules with tariffs we see fit.
Once we have renegotiated our tariffs and quotas if it is found that we had tariffs set too high or to low a quote, then we will have to pay compensation to the nations involved.
That's why I referred to 'protocols', the joining link is to indicate what is expected of members and the negotiations that may be required.
Is Brexit developing as you expected when you voted to leave ?