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You Gov Brexit Attitude Survey
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xalfiwu0ed/TimesResults_170118_VI_Trackers_MaySpeech_W.pdf
Some interesting findings in this You Gov/Times polling carried out after Theresa May's speech last week. Page 5 onwards deals with specific matters in light of that speech.
In summary, and excluding "not sures", and in % terms, it shows 74 to 12 in favour of immigration controls from Europe, 72 to 9 in favour of an open border with the Republic of Ireland, 57 to 21 in favour of leaving the single market but seeking the greatest possible access under a new free trade deal, 56 to 20 in favour of leaving the customs union but trying to negotiate an agreement with as few barriers as possible while allowing Britain to make its own trade deals with other countries, 77 to 6 in favour of guaranteeing rights of EU & UK citizens already living in the UK & EU respectively, and 85 to 2 in favour of continued cooperation in specific areas.
In addition 55% believe the deal Theresa May is seeking would be good for Britain as against only 19% who think it would be bad, and 62% think such an outcome would respect the result of the referendum as against only 13% who think it would not. In the no deal v bad deal scenario 48% favour no deal to 17% favouring a bad deal, and 55% agree with being willing to walk away as against 24% who do not.
Perhaps even more interesting when you look at responses to some of the questions, you see that even Labour & Lib Dem 2015 voters (as a group), the young (both 18 to 24 and 25 to 49) and Scots favour not remaining in the single market or customs union on the basis that Theresa May has put forward, and think that the sort of Brexit deal she is seeking would be good for Britain. Indeed even Remain voters as a group more favour the leaving the customs union scenario as raised. Only those who say they would vote Labour or Lib Dem now think not remaining in the single market or customs union is the wrong thing to do. Lib Dems more of that view than Labour where the margins are much narrower.
All groups (Leavers, Remainers, voters of all parties (admittedly SNP voters not included as a separate group), male, female, all age groupings/social grades/regions) strongly believe the outcome Theresa May is seeking would respect the result of the Referendum.
The results suggest that any softening of views since the Referendum is largely on the part of some of those who voted Remain.
Some interesting findings in this You Gov/Times polling carried out after Theresa May's speech last week. Page 5 onwards deals with specific matters in light of that speech.
In summary, and excluding "not sures", and in % terms, it shows 74 to 12 in favour of immigration controls from Europe, 72 to 9 in favour of an open border with the Republic of Ireland, 57 to 21 in favour of leaving the single market but seeking the greatest possible access under a new free trade deal, 56 to 20 in favour of leaving the customs union but trying to negotiate an agreement with as few barriers as possible while allowing Britain to make its own trade deals with other countries, 77 to 6 in favour of guaranteeing rights of EU & UK citizens already living in the UK & EU respectively, and 85 to 2 in favour of continued cooperation in specific areas.
In addition 55% believe the deal Theresa May is seeking would be good for Britain as against only 19% who think it would be bad, and 62% think such an outcome would respect the result of the referendum as against only 13% who think it would not. In the no deal v bad deal scenario 48% favour no deal to 17% favouring a bad deal, and 55% agree with being willing to walk away as against 24% who do not.
Perhaps even more interesting when you look at responses to some of the questions, you see that even Labour & Lib Dem 2015 voters (as a group), the young (both 18 to 24 and 25 to 49) and Scots favour not remaining in the single market or customs union on the basis that Theresa May has put forward, and think that the sort of Brexit deal she is seeking would be good for Britain. Indeed even Remain voters as a group more favour the leaving the customs union scenario as raised. Only those who say they would vote Labour or Lib Dem now think not remaining in the single market or customs union is the wrong thing to do. Lib Dems more of that view than Labour where the margins are much narrower.
All groups (Leavers, Remainers, voters of all parties (admittedly SNP voters not included as a separate group), male, female, all age groupings/social grades/regions) strongly believe the outcome Theresa May is seeking would respect the result of the Referendum.
The results suggest that any softening of views since the Referendum is largely on the part of some of those who voted Remain.
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Comments
You can sense a softening from the Remain side.
I'm not talking about the hardcore Remainers who are very vocifierous.
It's the soft Remainers that the May speech will have convinced.
"What do you understand about the single market, customs union, and the effects of leaving both"?
Which in most cases would be a big, fat zero. As for the government's stance - they might as well ask if they think we'll have better weather, given the chances of reaching a deal in 2 years.
In comparison, Labour are only retaining 53% of their vote with 21% "don't know" and UKIP keeping 56% but losing 17% to the Tories.
If the referendum and exit process is shaking politics up and making people reconsider their vote then the Tories are doing best at holding onto their voters.
Here we go again , yawn.
If she delivers then the Tories are safe for at least the next decade.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/
In summary from the article:
While the British people support the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is asking for they don’t necessarily think it is the sort of arrangement that other EU countries will agree to, or the sort that May will end up bringing back from Brussels. By 47% to 38% the public do say they have confidence in Theresa May to negotiate the sort of deal she described, but they do not expect the other member states of the EU to agree to them. Only 20% of people think that the EU will agree to the Brexit deal she wants, 56% think they will not.
And what happens then? Asked about May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" 48% of the public agree, compared to 17% who would rather have a bad deal than no deal at all. 55% of people said that May should be prepared to walk away. It is a different question whether the public would actually be so sanguine about May coming back from negotiations empty handed. Our previous polls have suggested that less than a third of people think it would be good for Britain to leave the EU without any new trade deal.
Theresa May has passed her first Brexit test: she has managed to define a form of Brexit that the majority of the country can get behind. Getting the rest of Europe to agree to those proposals may be a more difficult challenge.
Depends on what you mean by "delivers".
Not what most people mean.
The most likely thing she will deliver is WTO and a cliff edge.
Well, not one of the answers to the actual poll questions fits with your view of the world, so you might as well start making up imaginary ones.
Ah. A little context. Many thanks for that.
If a "no deal" was dawning, Nissan busy with the removals, and no doubt many others, public opinion would shift instantly. The fact remains that most have no idea what impact any of this will have.
Including yourself as no deal has been done yet
If you're going to try and convince me that the majority of the population are highly knowledgeable about trade deals, EU legislation, the impact of withdrawing from the single market and customs union, then don't bother.
It's why we are where we are.
They might as well hold a poll about quantum physics.
Tbh I'm getting from it that May is in a win-win situation. the EU will get the blame for the bad stuff, she'll get the credit for the good stuff.
And it won't be.
Yup your right, but you appear to have some idea from some of the posts seen on here for quite some time, everyone anti leaving the EU, and forecasting an 'economic meltdown' lots more unemployment, 'some of the bigger companies will move to Europe once we trigger A50', well guess what?, the companies that want to leave had better book Pickfords right now before they get booked up
I do find some of the very bitter Remainers who are unable to accept what is happening and praying we fail truly pathetic.
No, and just like you, we do not need to be highly knowledgeable.
What we have done is tell those responsible for such matters that in future we want them handled outside the EU, like the majority of countries in the world.
May has accepted this mandate, told us of two possible scenarios she will pursue - a deal outside the single market or, if necessary, walking away without a deal. The majority understand and support this.
Good to see the UK is even more Brexity than before. I put this down to characters like Tim Farron and Guardian pushing the last few moderate Remainers over to the Brexit side with their partisan attitudes.
Tbh I've never seen you wish us to fail. Unlike some others who seem to be wetting their knickers with glee at the thought of us going bankrupt.
I must admit I have raised eyebrows at the percentages in favour of quitting the Single Market and Customs Union. This would be a risky move for any country, even an economy as big as the UK's.
It does make me think the British media have been very lax and complacent here and not spelt out that this strategy is fraught with risk.
The lawyer who wrote Article 50, Lord Kerr, believes the most likely outcome is no deal, which would throw the UK into “legal chaos” and a sustained period of economic downturn.
“If no deal is made, it’s off to court with all these legal texts, and [there will be] a dispute about which court,” said Kerr. “We’ll leave anyway, as Article 50 says, if there is no deal the departing country departs.
“So out we go into serious economic disruption and degree of legal chaos and there will be serious problems for business."
This is precisely why Ivan Rogers resigned: he too sees we're headed for chaotic Brexit.
It's because they have no idea what that really means or the consequences.
Right now the UK is in the grip of ignorance and denial.
The current economic situation is giving Leavers false hope. Really we're just treading water until the first tidal wave hits.
In the long run when Sterling depreciates further, when inflation hits and people are earning less as their wages aren't rising in line with the cost of living, and everyone experiences a decline in living standards - only at that point will the consequences of the abstract concepts of leaving the single market and the customs union hit home.
Then people will recognise it was a bad idea - but of course it will be too late.
Do you think the majority of remain voters were?
Of course, quitting the Single Market and Customs Union could be a big success and leave Britain better off, but it's a very big gamble.....a spin on the roulette wheel so to speak.
Where are the media warning of just how risky a strategy this is? Those percentages for quitting the Single Market and Customs Union suggest the public are complacent and don't realise this could all go horribly wrong and very soon too.