According to the UK Polling Report Calculator that outcome in Scotland would produce:
SNP 57
LAB 1
LD 1
That would be on a universal swing basis in Scotland of course I imagine.
Its never healthy to have such a dominance by one party, no matter who it is, I hope the next scottish parliament elections in 2016 don't follow the same pattern.
I see thms is back with his links to articles from pro-independence websites. I wonder if the SNP fail to meet expectations next week he'll make the same sudden and mysterious disappearance he made after the independence referendum!
Is The TNS poll the same one that suggest 29% of Scots are undecided?
Probably- funny that the high undecided figures that have been in most Scottish polls never seems to get mentioned. Which could make a massive difference to the result- I think SNP supporters are likely to be disapointed next week. And let's be honest, the SNP's expectations are so unrealisticly high that if they get 40 seats they'd probably see it as a failure, if they only manage 20 they'll see it as a disaster (even though it would be more than tripling their number). And to be honest, I see somewhere around 20-25 seats being more realistic than the 50+ figures that these polls seem to suggest. I can see thms doing another vanishing act after next Thursday!
There's also the fact it's quite likely SNP supporters and activists have been signing up to pollsters in high numbers, which will also likely be skewing the results somewhat. You'd only really need a few thousand to do it and it would have quite a notable effect on the polls- especially if many of them claimed to be former Labour voters, which would skew the weighting even more in the SNP's favour. Maybe the samples the pollsters pick are random- but if they have an unrepresentatively high number of SNP supporters on their books, then it will be reflected in the polls.
While I do think there's been an icnrease in SNP supports and they'll make gains, I just don't think it will be on anything like the scale the polls are suggesting. I have friends in Scotland who have been campaigning and canvassing, and what they're hearing on the streets and doorsteps is often quite different to what the polls are suggesting. The Scottish results may well end up being another 1992 moment for the pollsters.
Its never healthy to have such a dominance by one party, no matter who it is, I hope the next scottish parliament elections in 2016 don't follow the same pattern.
It's yet another example demonstrating why FPTP is such a crock.
We could very well have a situation where a party on 54% of the vote gaining 97% of representation.
I also think SNP support is way too high to be realistic. We were in this same position pre referendum and look what happened.
How quickly history is rewritten (wrongly) on here. There was only ONE poll pre ref which gave the Yes side a lead which proved to be wrong. However every single poll out of Scotland has shown the SNP gaining huge support and the antics of the supposedly unionist Cameron and his gang the last week has only increased the swing to the SNP.
This particular poll may be a little optimistic but is still within the realms of possibility. You have to be up here to really understand the mood and also just how many youngsters are getting involved.
Probably- funny that the high undecided figures that have been in most Scottish polls never seems to get mentioned. Which could make a massive difference to the result- I think SNP supporters are likely to be disapointed next week. And let's be honest, the SNP's expectations are so unrealisticly high that if they get 40 seats they'd probably see it as a failure, if they only manage 20 they'll see it as a disaster (even though it would be more than tripling their number). And to be honest, I see somewhere around 20-25 seats being more realistic than the 50+ figures that these polls seem to suggest. I can see thms doing another vanishing act after next Thursday!
Yes remember the Indy ref polls all showed about 10% undecided voters and in the end the margin of victory for the No camp was about 11%. A lot of people are planning to vote tactically against the SNP and may not yet have settled decisively on what party is the best choice to do that. Virtually all my family in Gordon are going to vote Lib Dem including my Mum whose always voted Tory and said before she'd never vote Liberal under any circumstances.
The SNP are a divisive party even in Scotland.
Even if Labour only hold into 10-15 seats in Scotland that would still transform the result given the strong Labour swing in England most polls have been finding.
Yes remember the Indy ref polls all showed about 10% undecided voters and in the end the margin of victory for the No camp was about 11%. A lot of people are planning to vote tactically against the SNP and may not yet have settled decisively on what party is the best choice to do that. Virtually all my family in Gordon are going to vote Lib Dem including my Mum whose always voted Tory and said before she'd never vote Liberal under any circumstances.
The SNP are a divisive party even in Scotland.
Even if Labour only hold into 10-15 seats in Scotland that would still transform the result given the strong Labour swing in England most polls have been finding.
I wonder how much the English polls will change the vote in Scotland if on May 6th it looks like Cameron may sneak in.
Yes remember the Indy ref polls all showed about 10% undecided voters and in the end the margin of victory for the No camp was about 11%. A lot of people are planning to vote tactically against the SNP and may not yet have settled decisively on what party is the best choice to do that. Virtually all my family in Gordon are going to vote Lib Dem including my Mum whose always voted Tory and said before she'd never vote Liberal under any circumstances.
The SNP are a divisive party even in Scotland.
Yes, one of my friends has been out campaigning for UAS (a tactical voting organisation) and Scottish Labour and he's been out there most weekends in places like Glasgow, Edinburgh, Perth, Dundee and Gordon and he says the response he's got has been very positive. Maybe it doesn't mean that the SNP are going to flop, but I think it's also an indicator they're not as popular as the polls seems to be suggesting. If the SNP's support really was 50%+, you'd be able to tell from being out on the streets.
It's yet another example demonstrating why FPTP is such a crock.
We could very well have a situation where a party on 54% of the vote gaining 97% of representation.
I defy anyone to say that's democratic.
Perhaps now the whole of the labour party will get behind proportional representation and electoral reform? If not then they've no sensible grounds on which to be outraged?
I do wonder how high UKIP will actually poll in terms of %, I think 12-14% is probably at their high end.
I know UKIP isn't totally comprised of ex-tory voters but a large chunk were. I would imagine for those that have voted blue in the past the prospect of a left wing Miliband/SNP deal could be terrifying. Maybe at the ballot box they try and do something about it?
If its a hung parliament I think the Lib Dems are in an impossible position.
They may want to go back in with the Tories but if Labour do a deal with the SNP that would effectively put them into power then Lib Dem's might agree, or basically have no other choice but to support Labour to keep the SNP out of any deal with Labour.
Unless Cameron gets a majority AND the Lib Dems can stay above 40 seats there is no way Miliband will not be PM.
Comments
According to the UK Polling Report Calculator that outcome in Scotland would produce:
SNP 57
LAB 1
LD 1
That would be on a universal swing basis in Scotland of course I imagine.
Wow, that would be an incredible result.
Sturgeon was on R4 this morning boasting about their huge clout in the forthcoming Parliament.
I wont be sorry to see the back of Douglas Alexander.
Its never healthy to have such a dominance by one party, no matter who it is, I hope the next scottish parliament elections in 2016 don't follow the same pattern.
Labour 36%
Conservatives 33%
Ukip 14%
Lib Dem 8%
Green 5%
Looks promising for Labour. 8 out of last 9 Yougov polls had Labour leading.
Probably- funny that the high undecided figures that have been in most Scottish polls never seems to get mentioned. Which could make a massive difference to the result- I think SNP supporters are likely to be disapointed next week. And let's be honest, the SNP's expectations are so unrealisticly high that if they get 40 seats they'd probably see it as a failure, if they only manage 20 they'll see it as a disaster (even though it would be more than tripling their number). And to be honest, I see somewhere around 20-25 seats being more realistic than the 50+ figures that these polls seem to suggest. I can see thms doing another vanishing act after next Thursday!
While I do think there's been an icnrease in SNP supports and they'll make gains, I just don't think it will be on anything like the scale the polls are suggesting. I have friends in Scotland who have been campaigning and canvassing, and what they're hearing on the streets and doorsteps is often quite different to what the polls are suggesting. The Scottish results may well end up being another 1992 moment for the pollsters.
It's yet another example demonstrating why FPTP is such a crock.
We could very well have a situation where a party on 54% of the vote gaining 97% of representation.
I defy anyone to say that's democratic.
How quickly history is rewritten (wrongly) on here. There was only ONE poll pre ref which gave the Yes side a lead which proved to be wrong. However every single poll out of Scotland has shown the SNP gaining huge support and the antics of the supposedly unionist Cameron and his gang the last week has only increased the swing to the SNP.
This particular poll may be a little optimistic but is still within the realms of possibility. You have to be up here to really understand the mood and also just how many youngsters are getting involved.
But just imagine Scottish Questions at HoC.
Yes remember the Indy ref polls all showed about 10% undecided voters and in the end the margin of victory for the No camp was about 11%. A lot of people are planning to vote tactically against the SNP and may not yet have settled decisively on what party is the best choice to do that. Virtually all my family in Gordon are going to vote Lib Dem including my Mum whose always voted Tory and said before she'd never vote Liberal under any circumstances.
The SNP are a divisive party even in Scotland.
Even if Labour only hold into 10-15 seats in Scotland that would still transform the result given the strong Labour swing in England most polls have been finding.
I wonder how much the English polls will change the vote in Scotland if on May 6th it looks like Cameron may sneak in.
Yes, one of my friends has been out campaigning for UAS (a tactical voting organisation) and Scottish Labour and he's been out there most weekends in places like Glasgow, Edinburgh, Perth, Dundee and Gordon and he says the response he's got has been very positive. Maybe it doesn't mean that the SNP are going to flop, but I think it's also an indicator they're not as popular as the polls seems to be suggesting. If the SNP's support really was 50%+, you'd be able to tell from being out on the streets.
And yet the public are very happy with FPTP.
So those who wish to get rid of it are acting against the wishes of the public, that's certainly not democratic.
Perhaps now the whole of the labour party will get behind proportional representation and electoral reform? If not then they've no sensible grounds on which to be outraged?
Tories: 35% (+1)
Lab: 32% (nc)
Ukip: 13%
LD: 9%
Green 5%
I do wonder how high UKIP will actually poll in terms of %, I think 12-14% is probably at their high end.
I know UKIP isn't totally comprised of ex-tory voters but a large chunk were. I would imagine for those that have voted blue in the past the prospect of a left wing Miliband/SNP deal could be terrifying. Maybe at the ballot box they try and do something about it?
They may want to go back in with the Tories but if Labour do a deal with the SNP that would effectively put them into power then Lib Dem's might agree, or basically have no other choice but to support Labour to keep the SNP out of any deal with Labour.
Unless Cameron gets a majority AND the Lib Dems can stay above 40 seats there is no way Miliband will not be PM.