If Boris Johnson takes over David Cameron and leads the Tories into the next election and Tristram is Labour leader I can't see Labour losing.
Forget all this 'Labour needs to connect with voters in the North' most of the north is red and will always stay red. The north east will never vote for anything but Labour.
Isn't that what was said about large parts of Scotland? labour took that vote for granted and were slaughtered.
Its Middle England Labour need to win over and the Tristram Hunt's and Liz Kandell's are the only one's who can do that.
Despite me initially favouring Dan Jarvis, that does sound like a good combination.
My recollection is that Boris second election win as mayor wasn't a sweeping victory and the breakdown of votes by borough didn't bode well for any future tory London mayor given demographic change.
Don't fret there will be a PR guru somewhere expert in the art of eating a bacon buttie. It seems to have become a primary litmus test of suitability to govern, that and how to hold a banana without looking like one.
Not forgetting the other pre-requisite - only having a single kitchen in your house.
Well in that respect they were like a pair of bookends. Boris having perhaps the slight advantage of being somewhat comical at times.
I am very much looking forward to seeing how the London Mayor election and indeed the very concept, pans out, now the two celebrity candidates have left the scene.
While in 2010 there were plenty of people, not just Tories who didn't rate Ed Miliband (I know, I began predicting doom from the moment he was elected) there were also plenty of Conservatives who attempted to portray David Miliband as this terrible pariah for the Labour party too. So I do sense that there's a desperation to find fault with any candidate this time round - not just the ones that clearly are disastrous (Umunna, Burnham).
While in 2010 there were plenty of people, not just Tories who didn't rate Ed Miliband (I know, I began predicting doom from the moment he was elected) there were also plenty of Conservatives who attempted to portray David Miliband as this terrible pariah for the Labour party too. So I do sense that there's a desperation to find fault with any candidate this time round - not just the ones that clearly are disastrous (Umunna, Burnham).
Forget all this 'Labour needs to connect with voters in the North' most of the north is red and will always stay red. The north east will never vote for anything but Labour.
That is what Labour assumed about their Scottish constituencies. It is possible that UKIP could prove a real threat in Northern England
Tristam Hunt will be disastrous - this is not 1997, where Labour has the North East and Scotland secure as votes. Although I believe UKIP as a force will subside after the EU 2017 referendum, I don't think a London-centric, posh, Old Etonian is the person to re-connect with Scotland. To add to it, he's also got a friendship with Peter Mandelson. That could well curse his chances for the leadership.
I'd say the same for Umunna. He'll appeal in London, but do very little in regards to Scotland, the North East, the Midlands, and the South in general. He's also a Mandelson favourite too.
Burnham, while could get back the North East, and even Scotland will not do well in the Midlands or the South. His only hope is that the Tories do something incredibly stupid, such as electing Osborne as their leader. That's when a huge advantage the Tories currently have on leadership evaporates.
Cooper could do well - the one cross against her is the Balls' connection, and that she was a part of the last Labour government. But whereas Balls' and Miliband were clearly people deeply involved in Labour's terrible economic legacy, Cooper is not so much. So there is potential for her.
Kendall is by far the best bet though - part of the new 2010 intake so a fresh face, and could potentially appeal to a wide variety of groups, and comes off as telegenic. Furthermore, it looks like she could create a Labour party with a cogent message.
I'm not sure a rich, privately-educated son of a Baron is the man to win back the disenchanted working class voters in the North that Labour has lost to UKIP. They might as well have kept Milliband.
His father's a life peer, like Prescott et al, so it's not like he's got proper aristo roots. And if he's rich, it's probably from his books and tv work, not inherited wealth and trust funds.
I predicted that Hunt will be the next leader of the Labour party, but it's hard to say with Labour, because their way of electing leaders is so convoluted.
The last time round, David Miliband won, then he won again, then he won yet again & then at the end they awarded the leadership to Ed Miliband!:o:confused::D
His father's a life peer, like Prescott et al, so it's not like he's got proper aristo roots. And if he's rich, it's probably from his books and tv work, not inherited wealth and trust funds.
Exactly. The talk of him being an aristocratic toff is based on an overblown myth.
Tristam Hunt will be disastrous - this is not 1997, where Labour has the North East and Scotland secure as votes. Although I believe UKIP as a force will subside after the EU 2017 referendum, I don't think a London-centric, posh, Old Etonian is the person to re-connect with Scotland. To add to it, he's also got a friendship with Peter Mandelson. That could well curse his chances for the leadership.
I'd say the same for Umunna. He'll appeal in London, but do very little in regards to Scotland, the North East, the Midlands, and the South in general. He's also a Mandelson favourite too.
Burnham, while could get back the North East, and even Scotland will not do well in the Midlands or the South. His only hope is that the Tories do something incredibly stupid, such as electing Osborne as their leader. That's when a huge advantage the Tories currently have on leadership evaporates.
Cooper could do well - the one cross against her is the Balls' connection, and that she was a part of the last Labour government. But whereas Balls' and Miliband were clearly people deeply involved in Labour's terrible economic legacy, Cooper is not so much. So there is potential for her.
Kendall is by far the best bet though - part of the new 2010 intake so a fresh face, and could potentially appeal to a wide variety of groups, and comes off as telegenic. Furthermore, it looks like she could create a Labour party with a cogent message.
Liz Kendall did impress me greatly in her interview with Andrew Neil but I think your assessment of Tristram is a little harsh -He's not Estonian although he is privately educated as was Chukka. I don't see that in itself being a problem if their values and policies are right.
In terms of Scotland I think the SNP are going to dominant Scottish politics for at least 10-15 years so at most I can't see Labour clawing back more than 5-10 seats in Scotland in 2020.
I think Liz and Tristram are the dark horses of this race. Chukka was spoken of as a future prime minister as soon as he was elected an mp.I think that is a disadvantage and he may have peeked too soon.
Liz Kendall did impress me greatly in her interview with Andrew Neil but I think your assessment of Tristram is a little harsh -He's not Estonian although he is privately educated as was Chukka. I don't see that in itself being a problem if their values and policies are right.
How you come across is extremely important - the only factor which lessens that for Labour somewhat, is that they won't be facing Cameron in 2020. I think electing a London-centric leader will be a signifcant problem, because of who Labour have to appeal to get votes. They need a leader who can not only identify the issues facing Labour, and convey a good message, but convey it convincingly. I don't see Umunna or Hunt doing that.
In terms of Scotland I think the SNP are going to dominant Scottish politics for at least 10-15 years so at most I can't see Labour clawing back more than 5-10 seats in Scotland in 2020.
It's still something and they need the right leader to progress there. If they don't, they may well end up with 0 Scottish seats in 2020.
I want Chuka to be the leader, that way when Labour go down to another defeat in 2020, their supporters can try and blame it on "racist" voters and the "racist", right-wing media. ;-) Anything to avoid facing up to the truth about the party's dire condition.
I want Chuka to be the leader, that way when Labour go down to another defeat in 2020, their supporters can try and blame it on "racist" voters and the "racist", right-wing media. ;-) Anything to avoid facing up to the truth about the party's dire condition.
Given that UKIP are held up as directly responsible for attracting racist BNP voters by Labour supporters, as if it is some sort of crime to vote for whoever you want to, it would be interesting to see them deflecting the potential chance that hundreds of thousands of votes would haemorrhage from them as racist Labour members flock to UKIP if Chuka became leader.
Comments
Despite me initially favouring Dan Jarvis, that does sound like a good combination.
Ken again wasn't it?
Maybe they should take on Lonnie Donegan MP. His dad was a dustman and he lived in a council flat.
Ken's hubris was in play there I think.
I am very much looking forward to seeing how the London Mayor election and indeed the very concept, pans out, now the two celebrity candidates have left the scene.
While in 2010 there were plenty of people, not just Tories who didn't rate Ed Miliband (I know, I began predicting doom from the moment he was elected) there were also plenty of Conservatives who attempted to portray David Miliband as this terrible pariah for the Labour party too. So I do sense that there's a desperation to find fault with any candidate this time round - not just the ones that clearly are disastrous (Umunna, Burnham).
Who are your favourites at this point in time?
That is what Labour assumed about their Scottish constituencies. It is possible that UKIP could prove a real threat in Northern England
Tristram Hunt is just rhyming slang.
I recall many years ago the executives at "My Little Pony" could never understand why the toy did not sell well in the UK
Who I'd like to win the leadership?
Liz Kendall, by far.
Tristam Hunt will be disastrous - this is not 1997, where Labour has the North East and Scotland secure as votes. Although I believe UKIP as a force will subside after the EU 2017 referendum, I don't think a London-centric, posh, Old Etonian is the person to re-connect with Scotland. To add to it, he's also got a friendship with Peter Mandelson. That could well curse his chances for the leadership.
I'd say the same for Umunna. He'll appeal in London, but do very little in regards to Scotland, the North East, the Midlands, and the South in general. He's also a Mandelson favourite too.
Burnham, while could get back the North East, and even Scotland will not do well in the Midlands or the South. His only hope is that the Tories do something incredibly stupid, such as electing Osborne as their leader. That's when a huge advantage the Tories currently have on leadership evaporates.
Cooper could do well - the one cross against her is the Balls' connection, and that she was a part of the last Labour government. But whereas Balls' and Miliband were clearly people deeply involved in Labour's terrible economic legacy, Cooper is not so much. So there is potential for her.
Kendall is by far the best bet though - part of the new 2010 intake so a fresh face, and could potentially appeal to a wide variety of groups, and comes off as telegenic. Furthermore, it looks like she could create a Labour party with a cogent message.
His father's a life peer, like Prescott et al, so it's not like he's got proper aristo roots. And if he's rich, it's probably from his books and tv work, not inherited wealth and trust funds.
The last time round, David Miliband won, then he won again, then he won yet again & then at the end they awarded the leadership to Ed Miliband!:o:confused::D
Exactly. The talk of him being an aristocratic toff is based on an overblown myth.
Not really. It's based on seeing him and hearing him.
Liz Kendall did impress me greatly in her interview with Andrew Neil but I think your assessment of Tristram is a little harsh -He's not Estonian although he is privately educated as was Chukka. I don't see that in itself being a problem if their values and policies are right.
In terms of Scotland I think the SNP are going to dominant Scottish politics for at least 10-15 years so at most I can't see Labour clawing back more than 5-10 seats in Scotland in 2020.
I think Liz and Tristram are the dark horses of this race. Chukka was spoken of as a future prime minister as soon as he was elected an mp.I think that is a disadvantage and he may have peeked too soon.
He's not from aristocratic stock. He's no more posh in demeanour than Cameron or Johnson.
I expect anyone with a home counties accent sounds posh when you come from the Black Country!
And he doesn't look like a toff - he's got a chin, for a start.
Given that UKIP are held up as directly responsible for attracting racist BNP voters by Labour supporters, as if it is some sort of crime to vote for whoever you want to, it would be interesting to see them deflecting the potential chance that hundreds of thousands of votes would haemorrhage from them as racist Labour members flock to UKIP if Chuka became leader.