Who do you think are most likely to be the largest party currently (seat wise)?
They way voting patterns are going I honestly don't think you can accurately predict seat numbers without breaking the constituencies down into 7-8 different types and analysing the polling data for each of them. Maybe i'll get round to that at some point but not anytime soon
Voter share is a different matter and I'm quietly confident on that one. I'm current edging towards the Tories winning by 2%, though I want to see if their figures fall back to 30-32% next week.
They way voting patterns are going I honestly don't think you can accurately predict seat numbers without breaking the constituencies down into 7-8 different types and analysing the polling data for each of them. Maybe i'll get round to that at some point but not anytime soon
Voter share is a different matter and I'm quietly confident on that one. I'm current edging towards the Tories winning by 2%, though I want to see if their figures fall back to 30-32% next week.
They way voting patterns are going I honestly don't think you can accurately predict seat numbers without breaking the constituencies down into 7-8 different types and analysing the polling data for each of them. Maybe i'll get round to that at some point but not anytime soon
Voter share is a different matter and I'm quietly confident on that one. I'm current edging towards the Tories winning by 2%, though I want to see if their figures fall back to 30-32% next week.
Interesting, yes I agree with what you are saying on seat numbers. My earlier predictions in the thread were the Tories winning by 2-3% so I agree with you on that one. What do you mean regarding breaking constituencies down into 7-8 different types?
Actually, from the point of view of general election predictions I don't think by-elections are that interesting. The way people tend to vote in them is just far distorted to learn much.
I wanted to wait until next week specifically because it will be a relatively 'quiet' period between Clacton and Rochester where UKIP won't be getting too much additional coverage.
These figures really are awful for Labour, the Tories are on course to win the most seats going by these numbers & factoring in the fact that CON's will likely recover more % before election day and labour will likely lose 1-2% (basing this on past elections with how governments recover before polling day). Ed Miliband is heading for being forced to resign after the next Election judging by this.
It is also worth noting that the incumbent government almost always loses support compared to the previous election, so it could just as easily be David Cameron being knifed by his own party as the Conservatives once again (for the 5th successive election) fail to get a majority. By the way Ed Mill is still odds on favourite with the bookies to be PM after the next GE.
If what you say is true, Farage is telling a pack of lies. He can't become "Minister for Europe" without entering into a coalition.
There's nothing to say that a person from any party can be asked by the prime minister to become a minister. In fact someone can be appointed to the cabinet without being either a member of the house of commons or lords. (Peter Mandleson is a good example.)
Theoretically a prime minister could be anyone. They have to have the confidence of the house but all that means is that they have enough MPs to support them, Douglas Home in 1963 is a rare example.
It is also worth noting that the incumbent government almost always loses support compared to the previous election, so it could just as easily be David Cameron being knifed by his own party as the Conservatives once again (for the 5th successive election) fail to get a majority. By the way Ed Mill is still odds on favourite with the bookies to be PM after the next GE.
Just checked on odds checker, there is no price for David Cameron.
I agree. He was really angry today. I watched his speech.
Hopefully he was angry at the people in Treasury who kept the amount from him that they'd known for a week. Is he really in charge, or just reacting to events?
Cameron's poll ratings should go through the roof following his forceful pop at the EU Commission today
I'm not convinced they will, and I'm not sure he looked that intimidating to the other leaders. It wasn't a reaction worthy of a Mitterand or a Thatcher or a Kohl. I can't see anyone benefiting from this except UKIP actually, unless Cameron manages to get the whole bill cancelled (not just delayed) in which case that might play well. (But even then, many people might remember the bad news longer than the good news).
I agree. He was really angry today. I watched his speech.
I disagree and I watched his speech too, personally I think he came across as a schoolboy having a hissy tantrum because he can't have everything his own way,
I love the way he said that it's "unreasonable" to to give us this bill 'out of the blue' and just expect us to pay it,
Hey Dave, welcome to the world most of us live in, "what? can't afford to pay the spare room fine? TOUGH poor person, you will damn well pay it anyway",
"can't afford to feed your family? but, but, you were only boasting about how much better than everyone else you are doing a couple of weeks ago? even went on TV and in the newspapers boasting about it, there are no more 'free rides'
sorry poor person we will suspend your income forthwith"
Blairs written an article in one of the papers tomorrow saying Cameron will win the election. Wonder if this will be the Ed Milliband STFU tony moment.
Blairs written an article in one of the papers tomorrow saying Cameron will win the election. Wonder if this will be the Ed Milliband STFU tony moment.
If so he's behind the curve, that moment came a long time ago for most folk! :kitty:
I disagree and I watched his speech too, personally I think he came across as a schoolboy having a hissy tantrum because he can't have everything his own way,
I love the way he said that it's "unreasonable" to to give us this bill 'out of the blue' and just expect us to pay it,
Hey Dave, welcome to the world most of us live in, "what? can't afford to pay the spare room fine? TOUGH poor person, you will damn well pay it anyway",
"can't afford to feed your family? but, but, you were only boasting about how much better than everyone else you are doing a couple of weeks ago? even went on TV and in the newspapers boasting about it, there are no more 'free rides'
sorry poor person we will suspend your income forthwith"
For god's sake, as the obvious socialist that you are, do you have any concept of the outrageousness of us being asked to pay this bill?
I disagree and I watched his speech too, personally I think he came across as a schoolboy having a hissy tantrum because he can't have everything his own way,
I love the way he said that it's "unreasonable" to to give us this bill 'out of the blue' and just expect us to pay it,
Hey Dave, welcome to the world most of us live in, "what? can't afford to pay the spare room fine? TOUGH poor person, you will damn well pay it anyway",
"can't afford to feed your family? but, but, you were only boasting about how much better than everyone else you are doing a couple of weeks ago? even went on TV and in the newspapers boasting about it, there are no more 'free rides'
sorry poor person we will suspend your income forthwith"
Still towing the party line, I see.....
Why don't you change your name to "OLD DYED IN THE WOOL SOCIALIST GUY"
I disagree and I watched his speech too, personally I think he came across as a schoolboy having a hissy tantrum because he can't have everything his own way,
I love the way he said that it's "unreasonable" to to give us this bill 'out of the blue' and just expect us to pay it,
Hey Dave, welcome to the world most of us live in, "what? can't afford to pay the spare room fine? TOUGH poor person, you will damn well pay it anyway",
"can't afford to feed your family? but, but, you were only boasting about how much better than everyone else you are doing a couple of weeks ago? even went on TV and in the newspapers boasting about it, there are no more 'free rides'
sorry poor person we will suspend your income forthwith"
Cameron's poll ratings should go through the roof following his forceful pop at the EU Commission today
Its just a pity he does not get as angry about the poverty and inequalities that exist in this country much of it created and exacerbated by his own governments policies. He really is an insincere first class hypocrite.
One factor is the 'ashamed to admit they will vote Labour' crowd (in the 2015 GE)
It's simply not the thing to admit to in some circles, and certainly not to a pollster. Such people might not have voted at all in 2010.
This might be worth a few points.
Why on earth do you think people would be 'ashamed to say they are voting Labour' - thus depressing their poll results. They are the opposition - and its not 2003 and Iraq war time. - and an establishment party.
I would have thought given the constant onslaught against UKIP in the media its more likely to depress their share in the polls if anyone's.
Comments
They way voting patterns are going I honestly don't think you can accurately predict seat numbers without breaking the constituencies down into 7-8 different types and analysing the polling data for each of them. Maybe i'll get round to that at some point but not anytime soon
Voter share is a different matter and I'm quietly confident on that one. I'm current edging towards the Tories winning by 2%, though I want to see if their figures fall back to 30-32% next week.
Interesting, yes I agree with what you are saying on seat numbers. My earlier predictions in the thread were the Tories winning by 2-3% so I agree with you on that one. What do you mean regarding breaking constituencies down into 7-8 different types?
Actually, from the point of view of general election predictions I don't think by-elections are that interesting. The way people tend to vote in them is just far distorted to learn much.
I wanted to wait until next week specifically because it will be a relatively 'quiet' period between Clacton and Rochester where UKIP won't be getting too much additional coverage.
It's simply not the thing to admit to in some circles, and certainly not to a pollster. Such people might not have voted at all in 2010.
This might be worth a few points.
There's nothing to say that a person from any party can be asked by the prime minister to become a minister. In fact someone can be appointed to the cabinet without being either a member of the house of commons or lords. (Peter Mandleson is a good example.)
Theoretically a prime minister could be anyone. They have to have the confidence of the house but all that means is that they have enough MPs to support them, Douglas Home in 1963 is a rare example.
Just checked on odds checker, there is no price for David Cameron.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister
I think they mean the next PM after Cameron
Surely not. He keeps doing this sort of thing and it increasingly comes across as insincere.
I agree. He was really angry today. I watched his speech.
Hopefully he was angry at the people in Treasury who kept the amount from him that they'd known for a week. Is he really in charge, or just reacting to events?
I'm not convinced they will, and I'm not sure he looked that intimidating to the other leaders. It wasn't a reaction worthy of a Mitterand or a Thatcher or a Kohl. I can't see anyone benefiting from this except UKIP actually, unless Cameron manages to get the whole bill cancelled (not just delayed) in which case that might play well. (But even then, many people might remember the bad news longer than the good news).
I love the way he said that it's "unreasonable" to to give us this bill 'out of the blue' and just expect us to pay it,
Hey Dave, welcome to the world most of us live in, "what? can't afford to pay the spare room fine? TOUGH poor person, you will damn well pay it anyway",
"can't afford to feed your family? but, but, you were only boasting about how much better than everyone else you are doing a couple of weeks ago? even went on TV and in the newspapers boasting about it, there are no more 'free rides'
sorry poor person we will suspend your income forthwith"
If so he's behind the curve, that moment came a long time ago for most folk! :kitty:
For god's sake, as the obvious socialist that you are, do you have any concept of the outrageousness of us being asked to pay this bill?
Still towing the party line, I see.....
Why don't you change your name to "OLD DYED IN THE WOOL SOCIALIST GUY"
Different strokes for different folks.
Or rank hypocrisy and double standards?Makes for poor moral character imo.
Come off it.
The government the knew bill was coming, we signed up to it!!
The faux outrage from Cameron is a joke and only a fool would fall for it.
Why on earth do you think people would be 'ashamed to say they are voting Labour' - thus depressing their poll results. They are the opposition - and its not 2003 and Iraq war time. - and an establishment party.
I would have thought given the constant onslaught against UKIP in the media its more likely to depress their share in the polls if anyone's.